Global| Nov 04 2005Canadian Employment Rebounds in October; Participation Rate & Unemployment Steady
Summary
After last month's somewhat counter-intuitive labor market report in Canada, October data righted the relationships of jobs -- up -- and unemployment -- down, showing an improved picture overall. The number of workers employed jumped [...]
After last month's somewhat counter-intuitive labor market report in Canada, October data righted the relationships of jobs -- up -- and unemployment -- down, showing an improved picture overall.
The number of workers employed jumped 68,700 after easing 2,300 in September. There were notable gains in several industry sectors: trade, finance, professional and technical services, education, and health and social services. Those in trade and finance were outsized and served to offset declines in previous months. Others are less defined, but indicative of generally rising trends. In the goods producing sector, total jobs were down 3,200; manufacturing, down 7,700, extended an irregular downtrend that began in early 2003, and construction fell 4,900.
The unemployment rate declined further in October, to 6.6% from 6.7% in September and two months at 6.8%. As we indicated last month, these are generation-low unemployment rates. The last time unemployment in Canada for all workers 15 years old and over was 6.6% or below was in April 1975, more than 30 years ago. Many Canadian labor market gauges highlight a middle age range of 15-64 years old, that is, omitting older workers. This unemployment rate remained at 6.8% in October, basically where it has been for the last seven months. Last month, we emphasized that lower unemployment didn't necessarily imply tight labor markets because participation was declining. There was a slight improvement in this situation in October, with the overall rate rising to 67.2% from September's 67.1%; the rate for 15-64 year olds, shown in the table below, also ticked up, from 77.7% to 77.8%.
We also cited last time the weakness in employment of young workers, but in October jobs for 15-24 year olds increased 32,000, contributing to a rise in their participation rate from 65.6% to 66.0%. Their unemployment rate dropped from 12.7% to 12.1%. Clearly month-to-month movements in these figures, particularly around the beginning of a school year, may not tell much fundamental about employment conditions generally, but for these young people, we can point to progress in reducing their unemployment from 14.0% early in 2004 and some hint of stabilization in their participation rates at about 66% throughout 2005. The number of jobs they hold is just about even with a year ago.
| CanadaAge 15 and over | Mo/Mo Change, 000sYr/Yr % Oct | December/December|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2005 | Sept 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | ||
| Employment | 68.7 | -2.3 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 4.0% |
| Goods- Producing | -3.2 | -14.5 | 0.4% | 2.0% | -0.5% | 6.3% |
| Service- Producing | 71.9 | 12.2 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% |
| Labor Force | 52.7 | -7.4 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 3.2% |
| Ages 15-64 | Oct 2005 | Sept 2005 | Oct 2004 | Annual Average | ||
| Unemployment Rate | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Participation Rate | 77.8% | 77.7% | 78.1% | 78.2% | 78.1% | 77.4% |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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