
Business Inventories Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories increased 0.2% during August (0.7% y/y) following an unrevised little change in July. Total business sales also increased 0.2%, and were little changed y/y. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained stable at [...]
Total business inventories increased 0.2% during August (0.7% y/y) following an unrevised little change in July. Total business sales also increased 0.2%, and were little changed y/y. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained stable at 1.39, down sharply from where it was during Q1.
New data in this report was that retail inventories jumped 0.6% (4.8% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. The rise was powered by a 1.2% surge (10.2% y/y) in motor vehicle inventories. Excluding autos, inventories worked 0.3% higher (2.1% y/y). That gain reflected a 0.5% rise in furniture inventories, but they were little changed y/y. Building material inventories grew 0.7% (4.4% y/y), but clothing inventories rose just 0.2% (1.8% y/y). Food & beverage store inventories gained 0.2% (2.4% y/y), but general merchandise store inventories fell 0.3% (-1.5% y/y). As reported earlier, wholesale inventories declined 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) while factory inventories were up 0.2% (-2.2% y/y).
Business sales increased 0.2% in August (-0.0% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. Merchant wholesale sales led the way higher with a 0.7% increase (0.6% y/y) following a 0.6% decline. Factory sector shipments remained steady (-2.0% y/y) after a 0.4% decline, and retail sales fell 0.3% (+1.6% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.
The overall business inventory-to-sales ratio remained steady m/m at 1.39, though that was up from 1.38 one year earlier. The retail I/S ratio rose to 1.51, its highest level since March, while the ratio excluding autos also nudged up to 1.28. That still was down from 1.30 six months ago. The wholesale sector I/S ratio eased to 1.33, while it rose to 1.36 in the factory sector.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.2 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
Retail | 0.6 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 7.4 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 4.8 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 |
Manufacturing | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.0 | -2.2 | -2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 0.2 | -0.3 | 1.0 | -0.0 | -2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
Retail | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.3 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 2.6 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.7 | -0.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | -4.3 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
Manufacturing | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.6 | -2.0 | -4.4 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.31 | 1.29 |
Retail | 1.51 | 1.49 | 1.50 | 1.46 | 1.46 | 1.43 | 1.41 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.24 | 1.23 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.33 | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.21 | 1.18 |
Manufacturing | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.31 | 1.30 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.