Global| May 01 2008Both NTC/CIPS and CBI Index Show Withering UK MFG/Industrial Sector
Summary
The NTC and CBI indices show that the UK MFG sector is on the decline. The CBI industrial total orders reading is placed in its range percentile at 55 the fifty-fifth percentile, nearly the same relative position as for the overall [...]
The NTC and CBI indices show that the UK MFG sector is on the
decline. The CBI industrial total orders reading is placed in its range
percentile at 55 the fifty-fifth percentile, nearly the same relative
position as for the overall NTC MFG index at 51 the fifty-first
percentile. Both indices have fallen sharply ‘recently although for the
NTC PMI index the drop came several months ago, while the CBI orders
series took its sharp drop just this month. There is some evidence that
suggests the NTC index has moved in advance of the CBI orders index in
the past. Note that while the two indices seem to track each other
fairly well, their respective ‘zero’ or neutral points do not match up
on this two scale chart. For the CBI neutral is at zero, for the NTC
report neutral is at 50. Looking at our ‘percentile of range
statistics’ gets us away from this sort of dilemma. We can se that the
CBI points to surging inflation on top of weakening growth.
| UK Industrial volume data CBI Survey | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported: | Apr-08 | Mar-08 | Feb-08 | Jan-08 | 12Mo Avg | Pcntle | Max | Min | Range |
| Total Orders | -13 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 55% | 9 | -40 | 49 |
| Export Orders | -12 | 3 | -8 | -4 | -4 | 72% | 3 | -50 | 53 |
| Stocks: Final Goods | 12 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 50% | 26 | -2 | 28 |
| Output Volume: Next 3M | 11 | 18 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 70% | 28 | -28 | 56 |
| Avg Prices for next 3M | 25 | 25 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 100% | 25 | -30 | 55 |
| From end 2000 | |||||||||
| Compare to CIPS MFG | |||||||||
| Apr-08 | Mar-08 | Feb-08 | Jan-08 | 12 Mo Avg | Pcntle | Max | Min | Range | |
| UK MFG | 50.96 | 51.25 | 51.24 | 50.60 | 53.18 | 51% | 56.32 | 45.46 | 11 |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
