Global| Oct 08 2009Bank Of France Business Indicator Continues Its Barnstorming... Still, Many Barns Lie Ahead
Summary
The Bank of France monthly business survey continues to show a strong uptrend. The overall industry sentiment index (in red at the bottom of the table) scored a reading of 92 up from 89 in August, a standing of 30% in its range of [...]
The Bank of France monthly business survey continues to show a
strong uptrend. The overall industry sentiment index (in red at the
bottom of the table) scored a reading of 92 up from 89 in August, a
standing of 30% in its range of values and above its average of 90
since October 1988. This is very good news, although the range standing
is till quite low. There is along way to go to get to ‘normal’.
The production index has been flirting with positive values in
three of the last five months so the move up to 0.59 from -0.77 is not
so special this month. That reading compares with a 12-month average of
minus 10 and a long term averages of +6. It stands in the 38th
percentile of its range.
The production outlook index is up for the second time in
three months rebounding from a reading of minus 1.36 in August to +1.23
in September. This reading, too, is better than its 12-month average of
minus 7 and below its long terms average of +6. It stands in the 30th
percentile of its range.
Demand is still quite negative and is assessed at a reading of
-32. That is above the 12-month value of -37 but below the long term
average of +1. Still it sits at a weak 16th percentile of its range.
Foreign demand (orders) is barely better standing in the in the 19th
percentile of its range.
New orders are faring better than the accumulated stock of
orders (demand). The new order index fell by 2.62 points after two
months of gains. Still the index stands in the 29th percentile of its
range.
Job losses stepped up in the current month but the survey is
on a definite improving trend. The jobs component for current hiring is
in the 59th percentile of its range. For future hiring the index is the
52 percentile of its range and that indicator improved in the month.
In short French industry is still assessed at poor levels. But
the improvement of the overall index is quite dramatic and the momentum
for continued improvement is still in place. Optimism about France is
not about being there but about getting there.
| Bank of France Monthly INDUSTRY Survey: SUMMARY | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 MO | Since Oct-88 | Percentile | ||||
| Sep-09 | Aug-09 | Jul-09 | AVERAGE | Average | rank/range | |
| Production-latest mo | ||||||
| Total Industry | 0.59 | -0.77 | 0.16 | -10 | 6 | 38.0% |
| Production Outlook | ||||||
| Total Industry | 1.23 | -1.36 | 3.47 | -7 | 6 | 31.2% |
| Demand | ||||||
| Overall order books | -32.7 | -37.41 | -40.73 | -42 | 1 | 16.3% |
| Foreign Orders | 1.08 | -0.46 | -2.01 | -14 | 6 | 19.8% |
| New Orders | ||||||
| Total Industry | -2.61 | 4.35 | 2.89 | -12 | 7 | 29.0% |
| Stocks: Finished Gds | ||||||
| Total Industry | -6.21 | -8.13 | -5.44 | -5 | -2 | 19.4% |
| Capacity Utilization | 71.73 | 70.76 | 70.8 | 71 | 77 | 7.1% |
| Hiring | ||||||
| Latest Mo | -1.9 | -0.57 | -7.05 | -9 | -5 | 59.8% |
| Outlook | -7.6 | -9.98 | -8.13 | -14 | -8 | 52.2% |
| Industry Sentiment Index | 92.14 | 89.09 | 87.59 | 79 | 90 | 30.0% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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