Global| Sep 21 2004August Housing Starts At Year's High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts added a slight 0.6% last month to the upwardly revised 9.4% jump in July.At 2.000 mil., starts were at the highest level of 2004 and year to date have averaged 5.1% above 2003. The Consensus forecast had been for 1.94M [...]
Housing starts added a slight 0.6% last month to the upwardly revised 9.4% jump in July.At 2.000 mil., starts were at the highest level of 2004 and year to date have averaged 5.1% above 2003. The Consensus forecast had been for 1.94M starts for August.
Single-family starts rose 0.4% on the heels of the 9.2% jump the prior month. Year to date single family starts have averaged 6.5% above last year's average.
Multi-family starts rose 1.5% in August but for the year have averaged 1.1% below 2003.
Housing starts rose in August throughout the country with the exception of the West. Year to date 2004 changes versus 2003 by region are as follows: Northeast, 8.0%; Midwest, -5.1%; South, 7.7%; West, 7.1%.
Building permits fell 5.5% m/m and reversed most of the 6.2% July gain.
"Can a Summer Hike Cause a Surprise Fall for Mortgage Rates?" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 2,000 | 1,988 | 9.0% | 1,853 | 1,710 | 1,601 |
| Single-family | 1,667 | 1,660 | 11.6% | 1,505 | 1,363 | 1,272 |
| Multi-family | 333 | 328 | -2.3% | 348 | 347 | 330 |
| Building Permits | 1,952 | 2,066 | -0.6% | 1,889 | 1,749 | 1,637 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
