Global| Jan 05 2011ADP Reports Record Jump In Payrolls
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
In its latest National Employment Report, the payroll processor, Automatic Data Processing (ADP), indicated that the level of private nonfarm payrolls jumped 297,000 m/m during December. The gain exceeded Consensus expectations for a [...]
In its latest National Employment Report, the payroll processor, Automatic
Data Processing (ADP), indicated that the level of private nonfarm payrolls
jumped 297,000 m/m during December. The gain exceeded Consensus expectations
for a 100,000 increase and it was a record for the series which dates back to
2001.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will report December payroll employment on Friday. Economists expect a 145,000 worker increase in jobs. For comparison, the November increase of 92,000 in ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls was accompanied by a 50,000 rise in the BLS measure of private sector jobs. According to ADP and Macro-Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90. ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
The outsized strength in the ADP report was due to a record 270,000 increase in private service producing payrolls. It was the eleventh consecutive monthly increase. Goods producing payrolls rose for the second month by 27,000 led by a 23,000 in factory sector jobs. Small-sized payrolls grew 117,000 m/m (0.5% y/y) while medium-sized payrolls rose 144,000 (0.9% y/y). Large service-producing payrolls rose 36,000 (0.2% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The ADP methodology is explained here.
| ADP National Employment Report | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m Chg., 000s) | 297 | 92 | 79 | 0.6% | -1.2% | -4.9% | -0.7% |
| Small Payroll (1-49) | 117 | 49 | 36 | 0.5 | -1.0 | -4.1 | -0.1 |
| Medium Payroll (50-499) | 144 | 44 | 40 | 0.9 | -1.2 | -5.7 | -0.9 |
| Large Payroll (>500) | 36 | -1 | 3 | 0.2 | -1.9 | -5.6 | -1.8 |
| Goods Producing | 27 | 10 | -20 | -1.4 | -5.6 | -12.3 | -3.7 |
| Manufacturing | 23 | 15 | -4 | 0.7 | -3.3 | -11.1 | -3.0 |
| Service Producing | 270 | 82 | 99 | 1.0 | -0.3 | -3.3 | 0.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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