Global| Jan 31 2007ADP Report: Private Payrolls Improved
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ADP Nat'l Employment Report, reported by the payroll processor, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls rose 152,000 during January. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment figure will be published this Friday. Last month, [...]
The ADP Nat'l Employment Report, reported by the payroll processor, indicated that private nonfarm payrolls rose 152,000 during January. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment figure will be published this Friday.
Last month, ADP's measure of private nonfarm payrolls for December indicated a 40,000 decline in jobs that was followed by a BLS report that private nonfarm payrolls rose 150,000.
ADP compiled the estimate from its database of individual companies' payroll information. Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, the St. Louis economic consulting firm, developed the methodology for transforming the raw data into an economic indicator.
According to ADP and Macro Advisers, the correlation between the monthly percentage change in the ADP estimate and that in the BLS data is 0.90.
The ADP National Employment Report data is maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical data go back to December 2000. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector, which rose an average 11,083 during the last twelve months.
The full ADP National Employment Report can be found here, and the ADP methodology is explained here.
| LAXEPA@USECON | January | December | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (Chg.) | 152,000 | -40,000 | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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