Haver’s data services are provided through the DLX platform; delivering tools for data management, visualization, modeling and publishing. DLX is designed to increase productivity and integrates with Excel, PowerPoint, and major statistical software packages; MatLab, R, Python, SAS, E-views and Stata. DLX component application DLXVG3 offers precision graphics, publishing, analytic tools, and easy navigation for all Haver databases.

icon-chart.png

Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

Advanced functions (growth rates, moving averages, aggregation, seasonal adjustment)

Analytical tools (cycle charts, scatterplots, trend lines, and recession shading)

Complete graph customization (axis scaling, sizing, formatting, styles)

Excel and PowerPoint direct export and complete integration (dynamic spreadsheets and presentations update on a click)

DLXVG3

icon-db.png

DLX Add-ins for all versions of Excel provide instant data updates of entire workbooks

Use DLXVG3 to locate data series codes from within any file, easily creating new spreadsheets for analysis

Edit date ranges, archive data, apply functions

Excel Spreadsheet Add-ins

icon-time.png

Haver offers timely, accurate, and professionally supported data via an update service, meeting the strictest demands of the institutional research community

AutoUpdate provides fast and reliable data updates within seconds of source releases

Timer service runs continuously on an hourly basis when DLX is running

Manual updates offer clients the independence to update data retrievals on any desired schedule

All database updates retrieve only the data series that have changed and send only the data points that have been updated; including revisions

Timely Updates

DLX software tools to convert data into many different formats needed for diverse analytical frameworks

Haver supports a DLX API permitting clients to leverage and build processes with DLX data

Database Compatibility

products-dlx.svg

Data Link Express

Platform Independent site delivering DLX Databases across any workstation or device.

products-haverview.svg

HaverView

[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

- Access data from multiple sources including files, spreadsheets, databases, data providers, and the Web
- Store data in financial time-series objects to simplify data management, data transformation, missing-data handling, and date-math calculations
- Perform technical analysis with moving averages, oscillators, stochastics, and indices
- Create custom analysis routines and visualizations or animations to capture, present, and share your analysis processes and discoveries
- Customize your analysis environment with advanced functionality from signal processing, statistics, or econometrics

products-matlab.svg

MATLAB

[Stata Data Analysis and Statistical Software](https://www.stata.com) by StataCorp LP is an integrated statistical package designed for researchers of all disciplines. It provides the ability to do data analysis, data management and graphics and has features such as multiple imputation, factor variables, GMM, competing-risks regression, state-space modeling, predictive margins, and more.

products-stata.svg

Stata

[SAS](https://www.sas.com) provides an integrated environment for predictive and descriptive modeling, data mining, text analytics, forecasting, optimization, simulation, experimental design and more. From predictive analytics to model deployment and process optimization, SAS provides a range of techniques and processes for the collection, classification, analysis and interpretation of data to reveal patterns, anomalies, key variables and relationships, leading ultimately to new insights and better answers faster.

[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

products-sas.svg

[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

products-rats.svg

RATS

Session 1: Bootcamp Part 1

Visualization with GGPlot2 and data analysis

Session 2: Bootcamp Part 2

Session 3: Univariate Models Part 1

Session 4: Univariate Models Part 2

Session 5: Vector Autoregressions

Session 6: Cointegration and error-correction models

A popular open source option for statistical computing and graphics that is available on many UNIX platforms, Windows and MacOS

Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

Understanding the concept of non-stationarity and testing for unit roots

Estimating autoregressions, granger causality tests, and impulse response functions

Understanding the concept of cointegration and testing using the Enger-Granger test

Estimating and forecasting with vector error correction models

products-r.svg

Teaches econometrics and forecasting at the University of Colorado Denver. He has over 15 years of econometric experience in both the private and public sector.

Daniel L. Jerrett, Ph.D.

Abdel M. Zellou, Ph.D.

Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

Econometrics Training: Applied Time Series in R

Session 5: Multivariate Models Part 1

Session 6: Multivariate Models Part 2

Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

products-python.svg

Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Robert Brusca

250603E.jpg

**European unemployment is very well-behaved**
Despite well publicized threats from all corners and all sorts of uncertainty, the unemployment rate in the European Monetary Union (EMU) ticked down to 6.2% in April from 6.3% in March, tying it for its lowest rate since the formation of the monetary union itself. In the broader Economic Union, the unemployment rate remained at 5.9% now; it's just a tick above its low point on the same timeline.

**Unemployment remains low**
Over 12 months the EU unemployment has fallen by 0.1% while the European Monetary Union (EMU) unemployment rate has fallen by 0.2%. This is a period in which the situation in the Middle East has remained hot, the Russia-Ukraine war has dragged on despite efforts by Donald Trump to try to bring both participants in that conflict to the table to talk and to get a negotiated peace, even more prominently, during this time, the United States has been threatening tariffs! Economists have been looking for all kinds of bad things to happen but instead the unemployment rate continues to drop and inflation rates in the United States and in Europe have continued to edge slightly lower.

**Are economic concerns overblown?**
I'm not going to claim that the economic concerns about uncertainty are completely unfounded or that we're not going to have some difficult economic times over tariffs eventually. But the decision by economists to ramp up concerns about uncertainty and how terrible uncertainty is, and how bad it's going to be for our economies, does not seem to be bearing fruit. Economics has moved from the notion that income and prices matter to the notion that income expectations and price expectations matter. We ae now firmly in the land of perceptions and expectations- but maybe we should also keep one foot in the land of reality - the Church of what’s Happenin’ now, as Flip Wilson Once called it in his comedy routine. We're in a period where there's very little going on in terms of policy change, but there's a lot that we expect to happen moving forward although we're not sure precisely what it is. There are concerns about how the tariff negotiations will work out and if there's going to be a trade war; certainly if our countries cannot civilly adjudicate their differences, a trade war will be very bad for the participants. But so far, all the gnashing of teeth about the impact of uncertainty is at the very least whistling past the graveyard.

**Ongoing excellent performance**
Unemployment rates in the European Monetary Union in April fell in seven of the 12 reporting monetary union countries in the table. In March, unemployment rates fell in only one country, in Luxembourg. In February, unemployment rates fell in five of the 12 countries. Over three months, there were unemployment rate declines in five countries with unemployment unchanged in two. Over six months, unemployment rates fell in six countries and unemployment rates were unchanged in two. Over 12 months, unemployment rates fell in six countries. The declines over these broader periods of time seemed to be still, consistently in force.

**Strong historic comparisons**
If we look at the levels of the unemployment rates evaluated since 1994, we find only three monetary union members with unemployment rates above their historic medians in this period. The exceptions are Luxembourg, Finland, and Austria. Including the countries at the bottom of the table that are not monetary union members, the United Kingdom (based on its claimant rate) is also above its historic median. Japan's rate is in its lower 12th percentile and the U.S. is in its lower 25th percentile. EU and EMU rates each rank within their lower five percentile! Altogether, it’s an impressive performance. Look at it. Read the economic/Financial press. Connect the dots- if that is at all possible.

250603.jpg

**Not at all what we were told would be ‘on the menu’**
On balance, Europe economy seems to be performing quite well with the unemployment rate quite low, quite broadly and consistently low, with the unemployment rate behaving itself overall, is certainly not what you would have expected to see! Both inflation and the unemployment data are nearly shocking, based on the way ‘experts’ have been howling about tariffs, about uncertainty, and about the impact on the economy! There's a lesson to be learned here about how economic activity and its trend and the need to get on with life are important and perhaps not always trumped by uncertainty or vague expectations. People, after all, live their lives with uncertainty, they know how to cope. There are so many things in your life you really don't know anything about and yet you continue to get up early morning, and go to work; some people make plans to go to college; some people go to trade school; some people cast their fate to the wind. There are many different approaches, but just because the world is uncertain, economic transactors don't ball themselves up in a fetal position and stay home in the closet. If we've learned nothing else from this episode, I hope that perhaps we've learned that. If you choose the fetal position approach, make sure your cell phone is charged- because things change and expectation are not always met.

Unemployment Falls Despite Myriad Tensions

Tom Moeller

250602J5.jpg

250602K5.jpg

The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector eased to 48.5 in May from 48.7 during April and from 49.0 in March. The index was below the recent high of 50.9 in January, but stood above a low of 46.9 in October of last year. A level of 50 is the break-even point between a rising and falling level of activity. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 49.3 for May. The series reached a monthly high of 63.8 in March 2021.

Of the five component indexes, only one deteriorated m/m. The May inventory index fell to 46.7 from 50.8 in April. Sixteen percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher inventories while 21.2% reported them lower. Offsetting this decline, the production series rose to 45.4 after falling to 44.0 in April. A fairly steady 19.1% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while an increased 24.6% reported lower output. The new orders index improved to 47.6 last month from 47.2 in April. The index remained up from a low of 45.2 in March. Twenty-five percent of respondents reported higher new orders while 26.9% reported lower orders. The supplier delivery index rose to 56.1 last month from 55.2 in April. Nineteen percent (NSA) of respondents indicated slower product delivery speeds while 7.0% reported faster speeds.

Also moving higher, the employment reading rose to 46.8 last month from 46.5 in April. The figure has been trending lower since a high of 57.8 in March 2021, and remained below a recent January high of 50.3. Fourteen percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new employment while 17.7% reported a decline.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, eased to 69.4 (NSA) in May and reversed its increase to 69.8 in April. It remained up from a low of from a December 2022 low of 39.4. A lessened 45.1% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices last month, up from 12.2% in November, while a lessened 6.4% reported lower prices.

In other series, the export orders reading plunged to 40.1 in May from 43.1 during April. It was down from its high of 52.4 in January. The imports index also fell sharply to 39.9 from 47.1 in April. It was the lowest reading since April 2009. The order backlog reading rose to 47.1 (NSA) last month from 43.7 in April. It was well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

250602L5.jpg

250602M5.jpg

- Reading is below expansion level for third straight month.
- Inventories account for all of m/m weakening.
- Prices index remains near three-year high.

U.S. ISM Factory Index Falls in May

Winnie Tapasanun

250602N.jpg

250602O.jpg

The value of construction put in place unexpectedly fell 0.4% m/m in April after downwardly revised declines of 0.8% in March (-0.5% initially) and 0.7% in February (+0.6% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The March reading was the third successive m/m fall following four consecutive m/m rises. A 0.3% m/m April increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate was -0.5% in April following +1.2% in March, registering the first negative y/y pace since April 2019 (-0.1% y/y) and the deepest since March 2019 (-1.8% y/y). The latest y/y number compared to a positive 8.7% in April 2024; thus, having remained well below its recent high of 9.8% in January 2024 and a peak of 18.6% in April 2022.

Private construction declined 0.7% (-2.2% y/y) in April following decreases of 1.0% in March (-0.6% initially) and 1.1% in February (+0.7% previously) and four straight m/m gains. Residential private construction fell 0.9% (-4.8% y/y) in April, down for the third successive month, after a 1.2% fall in March (-0.4% initially). Single-family building dropped 1.1% (-2.2% y/y), the first m/m decline since August 2024, after a 0.1% March increase; it was 48.1% of the residential private construction. Home improvement building slid 0.8% (-5.5% y/y), the third consecutive m/m slide and the fourth in five months, on top of a 3.1% March decrease; it was 38.9% of the residential private construction. Multi-family building dipped 0.1% (-11.3% y/y) following a 0.1% March uptick, a 0.3% February increase, and a string of declines during the January 2025 to December 2023 period; it was 13.0% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.5% (+1.0% y/y) in April, the third m/m fall in four months, after an unrevised 0.8% drop in March. The April fall reflected m/m declines in the following nonresidential private constructions. These included religious (-2.6%; +16.3% y/y), commercial (-1.0%; -5.4% y/y), utilities (-0.7%; +6.3% y/y), lodging (-0.6%; -2.5% y/y), manufacturing (-0.6%; 0.0% y/y), health care (-0.4%; -1.3% y/y), communication (-0.3%; +1.5% y/y), and office (-0.2%; +3.9% y/y). To the upside, the following nonresidential private constructions rose m/m in April: amusement & recreation (1.1%; 8.2% y/y), transportation (0.4%; 7.7% y/y), and educational (0.3%; -0.3% y/y).

The value of public construction rose 0.4% (5.5% y/y) in April, the third m/m rise in four months, after holding steady in March (-0.2% initially), reflecting a 0.6% drop (-0.8% y/y) in residential public construction and a 0.5% increase (5.6% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. The April rise reflected m/m gains in the following nonresidential public constructions. These included commercial (3.8%; 43.8% y/y), health care (3.3%; 18.8% y/y), office (1.2%; 3.5% y/y), transportation (0.7%; 6.7% y/y), water supply (0.4%; 7.4% y/y), amusement & recreation (0.3%; 14.2% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (0.2%; 9.4% y/y), and public safety (0.1%; 3.9% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which made up 28.5% of public construction spending, rebounded 0.5% (0.4% y/y) in April, the fifth m/m increase in six months, following a 0.7% drop in March. In contrast, the following nonresidential public constructions fell m/m in April: conservation & development (-1.5%; +1.2% y/y), utilities (-0.7%; -9.1% y/y), and educational (-0.1%; +8.3% y/y).

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

250602P.jpg

250602Q.jpg

- Headline: -0.4% m/m, the third straight m/m fall; -0.5% y/y, the first negative y/y pace since Apr. ’19.
- Residential private construction -0.9% m/m, led by a 1.1% drop in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.5% m/m, down for the third month in four.
- Public sector construction +0.4% m/m, reflecting a 0.5% rise in nonresidential public building.

U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Decreases in April

250602E.jpg

The months readings are decidedly mixed. Four service sectors report stronger month-to-month and four weaker; manufacturing sectors report three weaker and five stronger. The composite headlines are split four-and-four.

Still, it’s not as if nothing is happening. On data back to January 2021, the average of the composite ranked in May has a 35-percentile standing – still below its median on the period. Services have slipped with a 28-percentile ranking well into the bottom one-third ranking position. Manufacturing has been rehabilitating despite the Russia-Ukraine war and the Trump tariffs, as the sector has an above median 60.4 ranking on its average reading.

On an individual country basis, the EMU, Germany, France, the United States, Australia, and India – all reporting countries except the United Kingdom and Japan show manufacturing PMI rank standings above their respective medians (above a ranking of 50%). But only Japan and India show service sectors with rankings above their respective medians and only India has a composite standing above its median on this timeline. And India is an exception with extremely high rankings across sectors.

The monthly average shows very little change from March to April to May. The composite and services readings get slightly weaker while manufacturing gets marginally stronger moving up from 49.9 in March to 50.5 in May- hardly a rocket shot. Similarly, there is little change from the 12- month to six-month to 3-month averages. Looking at 3-months to 12-months, the composite weakens from 51.6 to 51.2, manufacturing improves from 48.8 to 49.6 and services weaken from 52.4 to 51.3.

There is a great deal of grumbling about policy and U.S. tariff threats, but so far there is little evidence of impact. I’m sure there will be impact, but I am not as persuaded that ‘uncertainty’ ‘per se’ is the bogeyman everyone else wants to make it out to be. It can be an issue. But I expect Trump to resolve these issues so that the main impact I expect is the impact from the deals he makes.

250602.jpg

In a separate paper, I just published on Seeking Alpha I included this table:

250602 2.jpg

What we see here is that despite the importance of consumption in U.S. GDP, neither exports nor imports are high relative to GDP when we compare that to other countries. All this grousing by economists that excess U.S. consumption sucks in imports and worsens the U.S. current account seems to be baseless. Everybody imports more than the U.S. does (relative to GDP), and they export more too. It is the U.S. export measure, also relative-to-GDP, which is especially lame.

So, as we think about the impact of Trump tariffs, it’s important to keep perspective. I continue to argue that there is far too much focus on and hatred of Trump and far too much love of free trade, a condition that does not exist. What Trump has done, that is good, is to give the U.S. a date with destiny it can negotiate, rather than the one that will be thrust upon it by a debt crisis. Making trade fairer will make it freer. It should be lost on no one that global trade is dominated by the most repressive, intolerant, least-open, rule-violating country in the world. How does anyone square the notion of global ‘free trade’ with the success and dominance of China, a country that confiscated the South China Sea against the ruling of the world court?

What we are seeing is that world trade has been working out from COVID and the recoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. actions on trade will push more military responsibility and spending on Europe in its new role in NATO. That should be stimulative. The tariffs are simply going to upset long standing apple carts that benefited from trade agreements and market practices that disadvantaged the U.S. and were allowed because the U.S. is a ‘rich’ country.

But that was then. With population slowing globally, the burden of debt is looking heavier and its need for redress is becoming more of a clear and present danger. The U.S. market is a huge prize. If the U.S. nominal current account deficit were a country, it would be the 19th largest country in the world. U.S. imports would be the fifth or sixth largest country in the world. This is what is at stake. This is driving a huge amount of global demand. Countries are very concerned about having diminished access to U.S. demand or access on less favorable terms, which is what tariffs propose to do. No wonder countries are trying to pick on the few things that U.S. imports from them that might be hard to replace and threaten to restrict access to those things. China, for example, is alleged to be holding back access to rare earth minerals essential for making batteries.

Against all of these factors and allegations, is that fact that it is manufacturing that is doing better in this survey and services that are doing worse. That certainly could change, but for now, that’s the story tariffs or not.

Europe

Little Change Logged for Flash PMIs in May

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we examine the deepening divisions between the US and China, which are affecting not just trade but also investment flows, monetary policy, and technological development. 

On the trade front, China has shifted from modest trade shares with its partners (chart 1) to capturing significantly larger shares across Asia, Africa, and Latin America (chart 2), while US progress in these regions has been more subdued. This signals a clear bifurcation, with China forging its own trading blocs, often at the expense of US market share. However, economies like Vietnam have managed to deepen trade ties with both countries (chart 3).

China’s efforts to strengthen relationships extend beyond trade to direct investment abroad (chart 4) and loan financing, particularly in Africa, where it has become a major investor in new projects. This has allowed China to cement a foothold in regions where US influence is limited. The bifurcation also extends to the monetary and currency space, with China gradually reducing its US Treasury holdings while increasing its gold reserves, possibly as part of a diversification push (chart 5). Concurrently, China’s push for de-dollarisation continues, despite significant hurdles.

Finally, US–China bifurcation is also playing out in the technological sector, where China has made significant advancements in critical areas, driven in part by substantial R&D investment over the years (chart 6). In response, US efforts to limit China’s access to key technologies may have inadvertently accelerated China’s development of its own systems and infrastructure, deepening the bifurcation further.

**Shifts in China and US trade shares**
While economists may differ on when the broader US–China bifurcation began, many agree that the more significant phase of decoupling was triggered in 2018, when President Trump initiated the first wave of trade restrictions and tariffs against China during his first term. Prior to these sharp policy shifts—and before Trump took office—China’s share of total trade with several major global economies remained relatively modest, generally below 20%, as shown in chart 1. Similarly, the US also maintained a relatively balanced trade share with most partners, though its trade was more concentrated with neighbouring countries such as Canada and Mexico.

250602T1.jpg

Fast forward to the end of last year, and we observe significant shifts in the trade shares of both the US and, more notably, China. As shown in chart 2, the US has seen little change in its trade share with neighbouring countries over the past eight years. However, its trade with Asian economies such as Taiwan, Vietnam, and Thailand has edged higher—particularly with Taiwan and Vietnam, driven in part by rising US imports of tech-related products. On China’s side, its trade share has expanded markedly with several major economies across the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Africa. Overall, China has achieved a much more pronounced increase in trade shares with its global partners.

250602T2.jpg

**Trade bifurcation between China and the US**
Digging into more detail on trade share shifts, chart 3 presents a cross-plot comparison of these changes. The chart is divided into four quadrants. The top-left, blue-shaded quadrant highlights economies where the US has gained trade share while China’s has declined—suggesting a pivot toward the US and away from China. Notably, Taiwan and South Korea stand out here, having become key suppliers of electronics and semiconductors to the US.

In contrast, the bottom-right, red-shaded quadrant shows economies where China has gained trade share as the US share declined, indicating a shift toward China. While several economies fall within this quadrant, prominent examples include Indonesia, Brazil, and Malaysia—each of which has seen some of the most significant increases in China’s trade share.

These two quadrants clearly illustrate the trade-based bifurcation between the US and China. However, the top-right, yellow-shaded quadrant features economies where both the US and China have increased trade shares. Vietnam is a standout here, benefiting from both sides—particularly through China Plus One strategies—though this positioning has faced scrutiny under President Trump’s current term.

250602T3.jpg

**China’s direct investment trends**
Delving deeper, we next turn to China’s FDI flows. As shown in chart 4, while the majority of China’s outward FDI has increasingly gone to Asia, there have also been substantial flows to Latin America and Africa. These investments have enabled China to steadily expand its economic footprint and influence, particularly in regions where the US has yet to establish a strong or sustained presence. Notably, China’s role as an investor in Africa has grown significantly over the decade, making it a major source of greenfield FDI on the continent. It is also a key creditor, having provided substantial loans under the Belt and Road Initiative—though lending volumes declined significantly following the COVID-19 pandemic. These developments have sparked mixed views, especially concerning Africa’s dependency on Chinese financing. Still, China’s investment has played a significant role in advancing development across the region.

250602T4.jpg

**China’s US Treasury holdings**
Another lens through which China’s gradual pivot from the US can be observed is the monetary and currency channel. As shown in chart 5, one key move has been China’s steady reduction of its US Treasury holdings. This unwinding has been significant: China fell from being the largest holder to second place behind Japan in 2019, and more recently to third place behind Germany as of March this year. At the same time, China has been actively increasing its gold reserves—possibly as part of a broader strategy to diversify its asset holdings. China’s financial ambitions also extend to de-dollarisation efforts, including promoting the use of the yuan or other domestic currencies for trade settlement. This is evident in initiatives by the BRICS bloc to reduce reliance on the US dollar. Nonetheless, the path to meaningful de-dollarisation is likely to be long and uneven. These efforts have also drawn criticism from US President Trump, potentially paving the way for renewed trade-related actions.

250602T5.jpg

**Technological bifurcation**
Lastly, we turn to technology channels, where China’s rapid rise over the past decade has positioned it as a serious challenger—and in some areas, arguably a leader—relative to the US. Much of this progress can be credited to China’s focused investment in STEM education, robust policy support, and substantial R&D spending, as shown in chart 6. Over the years, China has evolved from being known as the “factory of the world” to becoming not only a continued manufacturing powerhouse but also a frontrunner in several critical technology sectors. According to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), China now leads in areas such as advanced materials and manufacturing, clean energy, robotics, and more. China’s rapid technological advances—combined with US efforts to restrict its access to critical inputs and high-tech components—have, out of necessity, pushed China to develop its own capabilities and infrastructure. This dynamic has further deepened the US–China bifurcation in the technology space.

250602T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Bifurcation

250530A4.jpg

250530B4.jpg

The PCE chain price index edged 0.1% higher in April after holding steady in March. The y/y rise edged down to 2.1% from a 2.3% in March, its slowest rise since September. The price index excluding food & energy also rose 0.1% for the second straight month, after a 0.5% February rise and a 0.3% January gain. Its y/y change fell to 2.5% last month from 2.7% in March, the slowest annual rise since March 2021.

Durable goods prices rose 0.5% (-0.3% y/y) in April, after easing 0.1% in March. Recreational goods & vehicle costs surged 1.5% (-1.7% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in March. Home furnishings & appliance prices increased 0.4% (-0.9% y/y) after no change in March. Motor vehicle & parts prices held steady (+0.6% y/y) following a 0.4% decline in March.

Prices of nondurable goods dipped 0.1% (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 0.7% in March. Gasoline & oil prices held back the overall change and declined 0.3% (-13.1% y/y) after a 5.9% March decline. The cost of food & beverages also fell 0.3% (+1.9% y/y) after rising 0.5%. Clothing prices eased slightly (-1.0% y/y) after rising 0.3% in March.

Services prices inched 0.1% higher (3.3% y/y) in April, after rising 0.2% in March. Housing & utility prices rose 0.4% (4.4% y/y) after a 0.5% gain, and services prices excluding energy & healthcare eased slightly (+3.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. The cost of financial services & insurance weakened 1.1% (+4.5% y/y) after rising 0.2% in March. Recreation services costs fell 0.7% (+3.4% y/y) after a 0.4% March increase. Healthcare prices rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. Transportation prices jumped 0.7% (3.1% y/y) after declining 0.3% in March, while hotel & restaurant prices rose 0.3% (3.0% y/y) following a 0.2% weakening.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.2% (5.4% y/y) in April after a 0.7% rise in March. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. When adjusted for price changes, PCE rose 0.1% in April (3.2% y/y) after increasing 0.7% in March.

Real spending on durable goods declined 0.8% (+6.8% y/y) in April, after a 3.8% March increase. Real spending on motor vehicles eased 0.6% (+9.8% y/y), after a 10.2% jump. Real outlays on furnishings & appliances eased 0.2% (+6.0% y/y) last month following a 0.9% rise. Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles weakened 1.9% (+6.3% y/y) last month, after rising 0.9% in March. Spending on “other” durable goods rose 0.5% (1.4% y/y) after declining 0.6% in March.

Nondurable goods spending in real terms edged 0.1% higher (3.2% y/y) in April following a 0.3% rise. Real clothing and footwear purchases fell 0.6% (+4.4% y/y) last month, following a 0.7% gain in March. Real food & beverage purchases improved 0.3% (1.7% y/y) and reversed the decline in the prior month. Real outlays on gasoline & other energy products increased 2.2% (3.0% y/y), after falling 1.4%. Real spending on “other” nondurable goods weakened 0.5% (+1.4% y/y) last month, following a 1.2% March rise.

Real spending on services gained 0.3% (2.7% y/y) last month, following a 0.4% March increase. Real spending on housing & utilities rose 0.2% (1.4% y/y) in April, after falling 0.2%, while real health care spending rose 0.3% (4.4% y/y) for the second straight month. Real spending on food services & accommodations increased 0.5% (2.4% y/y), after strengthening 2.1% during March. Real spending on financial services & insurance rose 0.8% (2.8% y/y) after rising 0.2%. Real spending on transportation services eased 0.1% (+3.4% y/y) in April, after edging 0.1% higher in March. Recreation spending improved 0.8% (2.4% y/y) after easing 0.1% in March. A 0.3% rise (4.0% y/y) in spending on “other” services followed a 0.8% improvement in March.

Personal income rose 0.8% (5.5% y/y) after gaining 0.7% in March. A 0.3% gain was expected. Wages & salaries rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y) for the third straight month. Rental income eased slightly (3.7% y/y), after rising 0.6% in March. Proprietors’ income moved 1.3% higher (5.6% y/y), following a 1.7% strengthening. Income from assets fell 0.4% (+1.9% y/y), after rising 0.3%, and current transfer receipts strengthened 2.8% (10.9% y/y) in April, the fourth straight month of strong increase. Government social benefits also rose 2.8% (11.1% y/y) in April, also the fourth consecutive month of strength.

Disposable personal income increased 0.8% (5.2% y/y) during April following a 0.7% March rise. After adjusting for price changes, disposable income rose 0.7% in April the same as in March. The y/y increase rose to 2.9%, up from a January low of 1.3%.

The personal saving rate rose to 4.9% in April, after easing to 4.3% in March. It was the highest rate since May of last year, up from a 3.5% December low. Personal saving rose 14.4% (1.7% y/y) in April, after improving 0.4% in March.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

250530C4.jpg

250530D4.jpg

- Second straight month of slow core inflation pulls y/y increase down sharply.
- Real spending moves up minimally after earlier surge.
- Disposable income strength bolsters savings rate.

U.S. Core PCE Price Inflation Remains Negligible in April; Real Spending Gain Dips but Income Surges

250530H9.jpg

250530I9.jpg

The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed more than expected to $87.62 billion in April after widening to a record $162.25 billion in March, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The April reading was the smallest goods trade deficit since December 2023 and smaller than a $97.04 billion shortfall in April 2024. A deficit of $141.5 billion for April had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. In Q1'25, the goods trade deficit ballooned to a record $464.82 billion after rising to $324.23 billion in Q4'24; the monthly deficit averaged $154.94 billion in Q1'25, the biggest on record, up from an average of $108.08 billion in Q4'24. In real terms, the goods trade deficit subtracted a record 4.64%-point from real GDP growth in Q1'25 after having added 0.24%-point in Q4'24.

Total goods exports rose 3.4% m/m (9.6% y/y), the biggest of four consecutive monthly rises, to a record $188.47 billion in April, on top of a 2.3% increase in March. Exports had risen 4.0% since a July 2022 high. The rise in exports in April reflected exports m/m gains of 15.5% (22.7% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, 10.1% (8.8% y/y) in other goods, and 1.7% (12.5% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos. To the downside, exports for the following end-use categories fell m/m in April: automotive vehicles & parts (-21.6%; -18.9% y/y), nonfood consumer goods excluding autos (-7.4%; -8.4% y/y), and foods, feeds & beverages (-4.0%; +0.3% y/y).

Total goods imports slumped 19.8% m/m (+2.6% y/y), the deepest monthly decrease since February 1975, to $276.10 billion in April, the lowest level since October, following a 5.7% rebound to a record $344.47 billion in March. Imports had fallen 4.5% since a March 2022 high. The slump in imports in April reflected m/m drops in all imports end-use categories, particularly two-digit m/m plunges of 32.3% (+5.4% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 31.1% (-5.9% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, and 19.1% (-18.9% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts. One-digit m/m declines included those for foods, feeds & beverages (-4.4%; +6.2% y/y), capital goods excluding autos (-3.1%; +16.3% y/y), and other goods (-0.6%; +8.1% y/y).

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit: $87.6 bil. in April, down $74.6 bil. from a record $162.3 bil. in March.
- Exports up 3.4%, the largest of four straight m/m gains, led by a 15.5% jump in exports of industrial supplies & materials.
- Imports, down in all end-use categories, slump 19.8%, the deepest m/m fall since Feb. 1975, led by a 32.3% plunge in nonauto consumer goods imports.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Narrows in April; Smallest Shortfall Since December ’23

250530E.jpg

Global monetary reflation is once again underway. The United States, the European Monetary Union, and the United Kingdom are all our participants; Japan is the country going its own way continuing to tighten and to restrict policy through disciplined and tightening monetary growth.

**Reflation afoot**
Among the other three countries that are showing monetary stimulus, the U.K. is leading the way with the sterling M4 growth rate up to 7.6% at an annual rate over three months. The U.K. data lag other data in the table; they're not up to date through April; still, the acceleration is quite apparent over three months. Over 12 months, U.K. money growth is 3.5%, U.S. money growth is 4.4%, and the European Monetary Union money growth rate is 3.6%. The annual numbers still represent reflation increases in the annual growth rates compared to where they have been in the last three years, although none of the year-over-year growth rates really look like they are yet excessive compared to inflation targeting plans and likely GDP growth rates. However, this is definitely a transition to reflation. The question is whether it will be tempered at the right point.

**EMU trends**
In the European Monetary Union, the two-year growth rate and the three-year growth rates for money are under 2% while the 12-month growth rate is up to 3.6%. Monetary Union growth rate of real money balances is up over three months at 2.3% at an annual rate and at 1.5% over 12 months. European credit growth is picking up, as well, with private credit growth running at a 2.5% annual rate over three months and at a 2.3% pace over 12 months; in real terms, private credit growth year-over-year, however, is only 0.2%.

**U.S. trends**
In the United States, money growth is up to 6.5% at an annual rate over three months, money growth has progressed from averaging 0.2% over three years, to 2.7% over 2 years, and now to 4.4% over 12 months. U.S. nominal money growth clearly is accelerating. Looking at the growth of real balances in the U.S., the real money stock is growing at a 4.9% annual rate over three months and at 2.1% at an annual rate over 12 months.

**U.K. trends**
In the United Kingdom, there is that 7.6% three-month growth rate that compares to 3.5% over 12 months and to slower growth over 2 and 3 years. Real balance money growth is at a 3.3% annual rate over three months; over 12 months, the U.K. growth rate for real money balances is flat! While the U.K. seems to be in a period of relatively sharp acceleration for money growth, it's not yet a long-lived period of expansion, and so that has not yet had much impact on actual inflation developments. But the jack-rabbit start to monetary acceleration is something to be wary of.

**Japan trends**
In Japan, M2 plus CD's is falling at a 2% annual rate over three months, and rising at only a 0.4% in an annual rate over 12 months. That represents a lower growth rate than its two-year or three-year growth rate for the money stock. In terms of real money balances, over three months Japan's real balances are shrinking at a 3% annual rate, the same as the 12-month growth rate. Japan clearly is using monetary policy to squeeze inflation lower.

**Oil**
Disinflation efforts have been helped everywhere by oil prices that are falling in dollar terms at a 48.3% annual rate over three months and falling at a 24.6% annual rate over 12 months.

250530.jpg

**The central bankers club**
Central banks have been busy lowering interest rates because inflation rates have been coming down after a long period of inflation excess; bankers are clearly right now trying to manage the transition between excessive inflation to sustainable growth. But they are doing so at a time when there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty lingering because of the Russia-Ukraine war, because of shifting geopolitical alignments and responsibilities, and – significantly - because of U.S. tariff policy that has injected a lot of uncertainty into the outlook.

**Tariffs**
The uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy is substantially about uncertainty over what the U.S. is trying to achieve. At various points, the U.S. has talked about generating tariff revenues and other times it has talked about getting foreign countries to peel back their own tariffs. If the U.S. uses its tariff tool to reduce tariffs globally, this will turn out to be a pro-growth disinflationary move rather than an inflationary move. But the suspicion is that even if the U.S. is able to gain some tariff reform, it's going to leave more tariffs in place than what it had before it began its tariff gambit. That probably rises inflation risks somewhat.

**Risks faced by central banks**
The dangers for central banks in this are many because the U.S. currently has overshot its inflation target for over 4 years and other central banks have had similar experiences with their own inflation targeting… and missing. It's hard in this environment to argue that the central banks have credibility as inflation fighters after the way they've missed their targets in the post-COVID period. Not only did they miss their targets because it was a difficult period to make policy, but they missed their targets because they simply did not expend the energy and discipline required to hit those targets. This should take a toll on their credibility. So now with money supply growth picking up, and interest rates being pared back, under threat that tariffs will be raising price levels in the near term, the risk of inflation is all the greater. Central bankers need their credibility but it is eroded. These policies begin to look like central banks are willing to engage in a strategy of reflation and if it backfires into inflation they will simply blame it on tariffs. After all, during COVID, many of them simply blamed the inflation on COVID and on fiscal policy. There have been several papers trying to exonerate the Federal Reserve or to argue that the policy that it made that appeared to respond too slowly to inflation actually wound up making superior policy compared to the Fed following a more conventional consistent anti-inflation strategy. Central bank apologists proliferate.

**Central bankers**
Central banks have become more powerful during this period. Even if they remain under the pressure of criticism. Meanwhile, there have been significant political changes with new political parties taking hold across many European countries, in the U.S., and in Japan.  With new economic policies, new views, and a new set of people in charge of economic policy, it becomes even harder to decide how the inflation growth trade-offs are going to play out in the future. Central banks largely have missed their inflation targets over the last four years and while we have been through a period in which inflation rates have been falling from those heights, inflation rates still do not look tame with respect to their targets. Yet, central banks do not appear to have any fire in their belly to hit their targets and now we have monetary reflation afoot as countries continue to suffer from fiscal excesses in the wake of COVID with little evidence that they will implement any newfound austerity to rein in the excesses that supported growth during the pandemic.

Global Monetary REFLATION

large_250604J20.jpg

medium_250604J20.jpg

small_250604J20.jpg

thumbnail_250604J20.jpg

250604J20.jpg

large_250604K20.jpg

medium_250604K20.jpg

small_250604K20.jpg

thumbnail_250604K20.jpg

250604K20.jpg

The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 37,000 (1.3% y/y) during May after increasing 60,000 in April, revised from 62,000, and an unrevised 147,000 in March. It was the weakest monthly increase since a decline in March 2023. A 120,000 May rise had been expected in the in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) fell 13,000 (+0.6% y/y), after rising 29,000 in April. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 49,000 (1.1% y/y), after rising 28,000 in April. Large business hiring (500+ employees) declined 3,000 (+2.8% y/y) in May, after increasing 7,000 in April.

Goods-producing employment fell 2,000 (+1.3% y/y) in May, following a 28,000 April increase. Manufacturing jobs declined 3,000 (-0.1% y/y), after increasing 3,000 in April. The number of construction sector jobs rose 6,000 (3.0% y/y) last month, following an 18,000 April gain. Natural resources & mining jobs fell 5,000 (+3.6% y/y) in May, after rising 7,000 in April.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 36,000 (1.2% y/y) in May, following a 33,000 April gain. Professional & business services employment fell 17,000 (+0.5% y/y), after edging 1,000 higher in April. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.2% y/y) last month, after rising 24,000 April. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 38,000 (3.2% y/y), following a 29,000 April gain. The number of education & health care jobs fell 13,000 (+1.2% y/y) in May, following a 28,000 April fall. Information sector employment rose 8,000 (0.2% y/y) after a decline of 10,000 in April. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities weakened 4,000 (+0.3% y/y) in May, after rising 27,000 (+0.4% y/y) in April. Employment in “other” services rose 4,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 1,000 decline during April.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" held at 4.5% y/y in May. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y, steady with April. Construction sector pay eased to 4.6% y/y from 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew an improved 4.5% y/y last month. Financial sector earnings rose a faster 5.2% y/y, while education & health services pay rose a lessened 4.6% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay increased 4.8% y/y in May. Professional & business service sector pay increased a lessened 4.2% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay, up 4.2% y/y. Information pay rose an improved 4.2% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose a steady 7.0% y/y in May.

By region, employment in the Northeast fell 19,000 (+1.4% y/y) in May, following an 8,000 decline in April. Employment in the Midwest rose 20,000 (1.5% y/y) after a 33,000 rise in April. In the South, employment weakened 5,000 (+1.0% y/y) in May, after rising 1,000 in April. In the West, employment rose 37,000 (0.8% y/y) last month, after rising 25,000 in April.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

large_250604L20.jpg

medium_250604L20.jpg

small_250604L20.jpg

thumbnail_250604L20.jpg

250604L20.jpg

large_250604M20.jpg

medium_250604M20.jpg

small_250604M20.jpg

thumbnail_250604M20.jpg

250604M20.jpg

- Employment declines in factory & several service sectors.
- Wage growth remains moderate.
- Small & large business employment declines.

U.S. ADP Payroll Increase Slows Further in May

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

#### World Economy Tracked for You 
Haver's worldwide economic data coverage provides a productive resource for analysts, strategists, and risk managers alike. With 45+ years as the industry leader, our breadth of data is unmatched.


#### Diverse Data Sources
From international banks to the farthest reaches of emerging markets, our coverage meets the needs of the global research community.

#### Driven By Quality
Committed to quality and transparency, all data sourced and delivered is continuously monitored and validated to ensure the highest level of accuracy. 

#### Global Data 
From archives to forecasts, primary-sourced from around the globe, we offer 290+ time-series databases.

#### Speed Matters
Delivering precise data as quickly as possible is our priority, which we accomplish in about one minute of release.

Data

#### Comprehensive Solutions
Effortlessly navigate, analyze, and visualize data with our broad array of tools and seamless integration with industry leading statistical and econometric packages. Gain insight and share your perspectives with ease.

#### Secure Data Access 
Effortlessly manage and work with data — delivered to your network or via our cloud services. The choices are easy, and the results are the same, fully secure and consistent access.

#### HaverView™
With a commitment to making data accessible for any work environment, our HaverView web application offers a flexible and productive resource for the dynamic research markets we serve. 

#### Data Exports and Workflow Management
Our DLX software integrates with MS Office allowing seamless publication in PowerPoint and Word as well as intuitive data management in Excel. Flexible data feeds are also supported by a variety of methods. 

Software

#### Econometric Software Support
Use our various integration tools to access our data in popular econometric software such as SAS, Stata and MatLab.

#### Designed for Programming
Access our data using multiple programming languages including Python, R, C and C++.

#### RESTful API
Restful API access to all DLX databases, supporting quant and machine learning applications. Big data rejoice!

Connectivity

#### Commentaries, Charts and Webcasts
Our team of noted economists produce a daily offering of commentaries supported by our data and analytics. Our charts and webcasts offer a fresh perspective on the state of world economy.

#### Value Added Calculations
World and regional aggregates and many other value added calculations for individual countries including seasonal and holiday adjustments. We love math!

#### Blue Chip Consensus Forecasts
Survey of America's leading business economists for their forecasts of economic and financial data. Results in two monthly publications, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators and the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts, published by Wolters Kluwer.

#### Curated Navigation
Intuitive menus designed and reviewed by our economists for easy navigation of Haver's expanding ocean of data.

Research

#### Data for Colleges and Universities
Customized data available through HaverView providing access to over 120,000 economic and financial time series for the US and UK.

#### Academic Data Scope
National Account (GDP), Production, Labour Market, Inflation, Monetary/Fiscal Policy & International Trade. High-frequency data covering financial variables and drivers of the real economy, and key ESG environmental indicators. Plus, time series from the IMF on 190+ countries to aid cross comparison.

University

#### Move Back through Time
Terabytes of time series from primary sourced databases available in monthly snapshots as early as 2000, in weekly snapshots as early as 2007 or the point of inception of the database. 

#### True DLX Database Snapshots
The data are true snapshots of DLX databases unrevised from the point in time of update.  Easily view our archive data in HaverView with thousands of monthly archives currently available for over 60 unique databases. 

Discover Haver!

Data

Software

Connectivity

Research

University

Archive

World Economy Tracked for You

Diverse Data Sources

Driven By Quality

Global Data

Speed Matters

Economic Commentary

U.S. ADP Payroll Increase Slows Further in May

Recent Commentaries

Vietnam In Trump’s Trade War

U.S. Mortgage Applications Fall in the Last Week of May

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Decline Sharply in May

JOLTS: Job Openings & Hiring Increase in April

U.S. Factory Orders Drop in April, the First M/M Decline Since November

U.S. Energy Prices Weaken in Latest Week

Latest Releases

Graph of the Week

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints