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Chart and compare multiple data series with accompanying data table of values

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DLXVG3

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[Matlab](http://matlab.com) by The MathWorks lets you access, visualize, and analyze historic time-series data to identify patterns or uncover complex relationships. From within a single environment you can:

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Stata

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[SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) is a seamless interface between Haver and SAS data processing that enables SAS users to read economic and financial time series data that reside in a Haver Analytics DLX (Data Link Express) database. [SASEHAVR](http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/67525/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_sasehavr_gettingstarted01.htm) requires both SAS/ETS and Base SAS Software.

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[RATS (Regression Analysis of Time Series) Econometric Software](https://estima.com) by Estima is a leading econometrics and time-series analysis software package. It provides ability to do linear and non-linear least squares, forecasting, SUR and ARIMA models and in addition, supports advanced techniques such as GMM, ARCH and GARCH models, state space models, and more.

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RATS

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Estimating, evaluating, and forecasting ARIMA models

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Bootcamp and Econometric Tools 1 & 2

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Haver partners with SmartMacro Labs to offer a two week immersive online course introducing participants to the power of the Python programming language. This applied hands-on training develops statistical economics skills with a concentration on economics and finance.

Gain proficiency in building modern time-series models in Python through real-world applications. Designed for professionals in both the public and private sector, the course does not require prior experience, assuming only that participants have a basic understanding of regression and statistical concepts.

Proficiency working in Jupyter notebooks and the Python environment

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Remote Training: Applied Time Series in Python

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

Sandy Batten

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The 0.2% q/q saar decline in Q1 real GDP was revised significantly weaker to a 0.5% saar quarterly decline. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for no revision. The major factor behind the downward revision was much weaker personal consumption expenditures (PCE) than previously estimated. PCE advanced only 0.5% q/q, down from 1.2% in the previous estimate and 1.8% in the advance estimate. Within PCE, spending on services slowed markedly, increasingly just 0.6%, the slowest advance since Q2 2020 when spending collapsed after the COVID lockdown. The BEA noted that the revision to spending on services reflected new data from the Quarterly Services Survey. In the second estimate, spending on services had risen 1.7%.

The sharp widening of the trade deficit continued to be a major drag on GDP in Q1. Goods imports were revised down slightly from a 53.3% q/q saar surge in the second estimate to a still gigantic 51.6% quarterly increase. Export growth was revised markedly slower at 0.4% from 2.4% previously. The net effect was that net exports subtracted 4.6%-points after this revision, down from 4.9%-points previously. Some of the surge in imports landed in inventories, which rose $154 billion 2017$ and boosted GDP by 2.6%-points, essentially unchanged from the previous estimate.

The underlying health of the economy was not as good as previously estimated as domestic demand measures were revised down again. Final sales to domestic purchasers growth was revised down to 1.5% q/q saar from 2.0% in the second estimate, 2.3% in the advance report and 3.0% in last year’s Q4. Final sales to private domestic purchasers (a favorite measure of the Fed) slowed to 1.9% from 2.5% in the previous estimate, 3.0% in the advance report and 2.9% in Q4. After this revision, it is now clear that the economy has slowed markedly since the end of last year.

On a more positive note, nonresidential fixed investment continued to provide a meaningful boost to Q1 GDP. Growth of total nonresidential fixed investment was unrevised at 10.3% q/q saar, the largest quarterly advance since Q1 2022. This was led by a 23.7% quarterly surge in business spending on equipment, revised down slightly from 24.6% in the second estimate. This was still the fastest pace of equipment spending since the rebound from COVID lockdown in Q3 2020. By contrast, residential investment in Q1 was revised weaker in this estimate, falling 1.3% versus the previously estimated -0.6%.

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Government spending was essentially unrevised, falling 0.6%q/q saar, led by an unrevised 7.1% decline in spending on national defense. Spending by state and local governments was revised slightly stronger with a 2.0% quarterly gain versus 1.7% in the previous estimate.

GDP price inflation was revised up a tick to 3.8% q/q saar from 3.7% previously and still a marked acceleration from 2.3% in Q4. PCE price inflation was also revised up a tick to 3.7%, well above the Fed’s 2% target, from 3.6% previously.

The previously reported 2.9% q/q not annualized decline in corporate profits was revised up to a 2.3% decrease. Domestic profits slipped 1.5% versus -2.5% previously while foreign profits slumped 7.3% versus -5.9% previously.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- The previously reported 0.2% q/q saar decline was revised to -0.5%.
- Consumer spending weakened markedly to a tepid 0.5% from 1.2% previously.
- Net exports were still the major drag while inventory investment still made a key contribution.
- GDP and PCE inflation were each revised up slightly.

U.S. Q1 GDP Revised Weaker in Third Estimate

Tom Moeller

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The Pending Home Sales Index rose 1.8% in May (1.1% y/y) to 72.6 after falling an unrevised 6.3% in April and rising an unrevised 5.5% in March according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Index remained 42.0% below its most recent peak of 125.1 in October 2021. The index is a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings.

The rise in May pending home sales occurred as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage rose to 6.82% in May after rising to 6.73% in April. These rates remained well above a low of 5.22% in August 2022 and more than double a record-low 2.68% in December 2020.

Pending home sales rose in each of the four major regions of the country last month. Sales in the West increased 6.0% (-1.2% y/y) in May after falling in five of the six prior months. Sales in the Northeast rose 2.1% (-0.5% y/y) after easing 0.6% in April. In the South, sales increased 1.0% (2.0% y/y) following a 7.8% April decline while sales in the Midwest edged 0.3% higher (2.6% y/y) following a 5.0% April weakening.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Rise recaptures part of earlier decline.
- Regional gains are widespread.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Rise in May

Michael J. Moran

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New orders for durable goods surged 16.4% in May, led by a striking advance of 182.9% in bookings for new aircraft. Published figures by Boeing (303 new aircraft bookings) led analysts to expect strong results, but the outcome far exceeded expectations (Action Economics showed a median estimate of 9.0%). The advance in the headline number was the strongest in more than 10 years and the third firmest on record (data started 1992). The jump in May, combined with another strong month for aircraft in March, pulled the 6-month trend well above the previous range (chart, left).

While the volatile aircraft component accounted for most of the positive surprise, orders elsewhere were favorable as well, as shown by an increase of 0.5% excluding transportation – one of the better readings in the past three years. This increase also was notable because of its breadth, with all six components other than aircraft posting gains. Bookings for computers and electronics stood out with growth of 1.5%, but all areas were at least respectable. The May increase excluding transportation, while welcome, did little to alter the underlying trend, as the 6-month average increase remained within the narrow range seen in the past two to three years (chart, right).

Unfilled orders merit attention. If new orders were to soften, a sizeable backlog could keep manufacturers operating at normal levels for a time. The headline figure on unfilled orders was robust (3.4%), but as with new orders, the aircraft component dominated this reading; unfilled orders were unchanged excluding transportation. From a longer-term perspective, unfilled orders were strong from late 2020 through 2022 as the economy recovered from the pandemic, but they inched lower during 2023 and most of 2024. Backlogs showed hints of improvement in late 2024 and early this year, but 6-month average growth is now showing no change excluding transportation (chart, left).

The report on orders for durable goods includes a series that carries significance in the current environment. Many economic forecasts for 2025 involve weak investment spending by businesses because of policy uncertainty associated with tariffs. The series on bookings for nondefense capital goods other than aircraft provides insight into this crucial sector (chart, right).

Interestingly, capital spending seems to be holding up well. The Q1 GDP report showed strong growth in equipment spending by businesses (23.7%), and today’s report on durable goods orders offered encouraging news with growth of 1.7 percent in orders for nondefense capital goods other than aircraft. This increase, along with strong results in January, has pulled 6-month average growth into positive territory, a notable improvement from negative readings seen during most of 2023 and 2024. 

Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Fueled by robust orders for aircraft, but also respectable elsewhere.
- Demand for capital goods holding up well.

New Orders for Durable Goods: Firm Reading for May

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The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to $96.6 billion during May after narrowing to $87.0 billion in April. A deficit of $91.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a record $162.0 billion in March according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Total goods exports declined 4.9% (+7.5% y/y) during May after rising for four consecutive months. Industrial supplies & materials exports weakened 13.2% (+12.8% y/y) after increasing 16.4% in April. Foods, feeds & beverage exports declined 2.3% (+3.8% y/y) following a 3.4% drop. Capital goods exports were off 3.2% (+9.7% y/y) following a 2.6% April increase. Working higher, nonauto consumer goods exports surged 11.5% in May (1.8% y/y) after a 6.4% April decline. Automobile & parts exports rose 3.6% (-13.0% y/y) following a 21.4% decline. Exports of other goods edged 0.8% higher (14.2% y/y) following a 10.9% April gain.

Total goods imports eased 0.1% during May (+3.2% y/y) after falling 19.4% in April. Nonauto consumer goods imports declined 5.8% (+3.4% y/y) after weakening 32.3% in April. Industrial supplies materials imports fell 1.9% (-10.1% y/y) after cratering 30.5% in April. Foods, feeds & beverages imports eased 0.8% (+4.6% y/y) last month, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Moving higher, auto imports jumped 10.6% (-7.6% y/y) after an 18.1% April decline. Capital goods imports edged 0.2% higher (16.6% y/y) after falling 2.5%. Imports of other goods jumped 9.9% (11.8% y/y) following a 0.5% rise during April.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit rise follows substantial narrowing.
- Sharp export decline reverses earlier increase.
- Imports are little changed following huge decline.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Increases in May

Winnie Tapasanun

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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was at -0.28 in May, up from -0.36 in April (-0.25 initially) and down from +0.16 in March (+0.03 previously), today’s report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago showed. The May CFNAI registered the second consecutive negative reading following two positive figures; it was down from its recent high of +0.39 in February, +0.16 in May 2024, and a high of +0.37 in February 2024.

The index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3), which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, decreased to -0.16 in May after holding at +0.06 in April (+0.05 initially), posting the first negative reading since January and the lowest since November; it was slightly below -0.14 in May 2024. The CFNAI-MA3 is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession. Therefore, the May reading confirmed that the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession.

The May negative reading reflected m/m increases in two of the four CFNAI key components and three negative contributions. The contribution of the Production & Income index moved up to -0.11 in May from -0.18 in April; it was down from its recent high of +0.33 in February and +0.12 in May 2024 but above a low of -0.59 in December 2022. The contribution of the Sales, Orders & Inventories index improved to a neutral value (0.00) in May after dropping to -0.14 in April; it was marginally down from +0.01 in May 2024 but above a low of -0.26 in January 2024. Meanwhile, the Employment, Unemployment & Hours index contributed -0.05 in May, down from -0.02 in April and +0.02 in May 2024. The contribution of the Personal Consumption & Housing index to the CFNAI fell to -0.12 in May, the lowest reading since January, after falling to -0.03 in April; it was also down from +0.02 in May 2024 and a high of +0.17 in January 2023.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average, fell to -0.24 in May, the lowest reading since November, from -0.03 in April (-0.05 initially) and a neutral value (0.00) in March (-0.02 previously). A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. The May reading was down from its recent high of +0.16 in February and -0.14 in May 2024 but above a low of -0.34 in October 2023.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- CFNAI -0.28 in May; -0.36 in April.
- Two of four CFNAI components up m/m, but three make negative contributions.
- Personal Consumption & Housing index falls to -0.12, a four-month low.
- CFNAI-MA3 drops to -0.16, the first negative figure since Jan.; still above -0.70 (recession signal).

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves to a Still-Negative Level in May

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 236,000 in the week ending June 21, a decrease of 10,000 from 246,000 in the week ending June 14, revised from 245,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 245,000. These data are seasonally adjusted by the Department of Labor. The 4-week moving average was 245,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s average of 245,750, revised from 245,500.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – in the week ended June 14 was 1.974 million, up 37,000 from 1.937 million in the prior week, revised from 1.945 million. This is the highest level for continuing claims since November 6, 2021, when it was 2.041 million. The 4-week moving average was 1.941 million, up 16,750 from the previous week’s average of 1.924 million, revised from 1.926 million. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021, when it was 2.004 million.

The insured unemployment rate for the week ending June 14, that is, the number of unemployment beneficiaries as a % of covered employment, was unchanged at 1.3% for the third consecutive week.

Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories. In the week ended June 7, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.20%), California (2.05%), Washington (2.03%), Rhode Island (1.98%), and Massachusetts (1.96%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.27%), Florida (0.36%), Alabama and North Carolina (both 0.47%), and Virginia (0.52%). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (1.62%), New York (1.57%), Pennsylvania (1.56%) and Texas (1.21%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 10,000 in the week ended June 21.
- Total beneficiaries rose by 37,000 in the June 14 week.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.3%.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Eased in Latest Week

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Sales of new single-family home sales declined 13.7% (-6.3% y/y) in May to 623,000 (SAAR) from 722,000 in April, revised from 743,000, and 659,000 in March, revised from 670,000 according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 693,000 during May. The sales gain occurred as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to an average 6.82% last month from 6.73% in April, according to Freddie Mac. It compares to a low of 6.18% averaged in September of last year.

By region, new home sales varied across the country last month. Sales of new homes in the Midwest fell 7.1% (-3.7% y/y) to 78,000, after surging 29.2% during April. In the South, new home sales fell 21.0% (-15.5% y/y) to 349,000, following an 8.3% April rise. Sales of new homes in the West weakened 5.4% (+8.9% y/y) to 159,000, after rising 5.7% in April. To the upside, new home sales in the Northeast increased 32.1% (48.0% y/y) to 37,000 in May, after rising 3.7% in April.

The median sales price of a new home rose 3.7% (3.0% y/y) to $426,600 (NSA) in May after rising 1.9% to $411,400 in April. The average sales price of a new home rose 2.2% (4.6% y/y) to $522,200 in May, following a 1.0% April increase to $511,200 during April. The average price was 3.5% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 1.4% (8.1% y/y) to 507,000 (SA) in May, after a 1.0% April decline. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale jumped to 9.8 months in May, the highest level since September 2022, after falling to 8.3 months in April. The latest reading remained above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market eased to 2.7 months in May, but remained up from a June 2024 low of 2.1 months. The latest number stood well above its record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022, but remained below a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales fall to lowest level since October.
- Declines spread throughout most of country.
- Median sales price strengthens to highest since January.

U.S. New Home Sales Decline Sharply in May; Prices Strengthen

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Mortgage applications rose 1.1% w/w (18.3% y/y) in the week ending June 20 following a 2.6% decrease in the week ending June 13, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the second w/w rise in three weeks to the index level of 250.8. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 0.4% (+11.8% y/y) in the June 20 week, the third w/w fall in four weeks, on top of a 3.0% drop in the June 13 week. Applications for loan refinancing rebounded 3.0% (29.1% y/y) in the June 20 week, up for the second week in three, following a 2.1% decline in the previous week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan increased 3bps to 7.06% in the week ending June 20 after dropping to 7.03% in the week ending June 13; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the September 20 week but down from a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages eased 2bps to 6.29% in the June 20 week, the lowest since the May 9 week, after declining to 6.31% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the September 20 week but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans rose 6bps to 7.05% in the June 20 week after falling to 6.99% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 6.57% in the September 13 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on a 5-year ARM rose 5bps to 6.36% in the June 20 week, the highest since the May 23 week, after declining to 6.31% in the previous week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the September 13 week but down from a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 38.4% of total applications in the week ending June 20 from 37.3% in the week ending June 13, registering the fourth straight w/w rise and the highest since the April 11 week; however, that was well below a peak of 55.7% in the September 20 week. Meanwhile, the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity, down for the third week in four, fell to 6.9% in the June 20 week, the lowest since the March 28 week, after declining to 7.1% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 4.7% in the January 3 week but below its recent high of 9.6% in the April 11 week and a high of 10.7% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The average size of a mortgage loan, down for the sixth week in seven, fell 0.5% w/w (+1.1% y/y) to $378,300 in the June 20 week, the lowest level since the January 17 week, after a 0.9% fall to $380,200 in the June 13 week. The average size of a purchase loan, down for the fifth week in six, slid 0.6% (+1.3% y/y) to $436,300 in the June 20 week, the lowest level since the January 17 week, following a 0.7% decrease to $439,000 in the prior week. To the upside, the average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rebounded 1.2% (5.6% y/y) to $285,100 in the June 20 week, the highest level since the May 16 week, reversing a 0.6% decline to $281,600 in the previous week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications fall 0.4% w/w while refinancing loan applications recover 3.0% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rises to 7.06%.
- Average loan size declines to the lowest level since the January 17 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rebound 1.1% in the June 20 Week

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The rate of decline in Texas manufacturing activity ease in June, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The General Business Activity index rose to -12.7% this month from -15.3% in May but remained below a high of +14.1 in January. A higher 17.9% of respondents reported improved business activity in June. The Future Business Activity index rose sharply to 14.4 this month to its highest level since January. The data was collected from June 13-21 from 85 manufacturing firms.

The employment index rose in June to 5.7, its best reading since July 2024 as a higher 17.8% of respondents reported higher employment this month. Also moving higher was the new orders index to -7.3, though the level still was negative. Improving sharply, the capital expenditures index surged to 10.9, the highest level since January. The production index of 1.3 was up from 0.9 in May as an increased 31.7% of respondents reported gains in output.

The shipments reading fell to -7.3 from +0.5. The hours-worked index declined to -8.4, its lowest point since in four months. The growth rate of new orders index dropped to -17.2; it hasn’t been positive since January. The wages & benefits index declined to 13.4, down from a high of 55.0 in March 2022.

Inflation indicators strengthened this month. The index for prices received for finished goods jumped to 26.1 from 15.1 in May. It was the highest level since July 2022. A higher 29.8% of respondents reported raising prices this month while 3.7% reported lowering prices. The index of prices paid for raw materials rose to 43.0 from 40.7 this month, up from a low of 1.0 in June 2023 but still below a high of 82.2 in June 2021.

The jump in the Future Manufacturing Activity Index reflected a strengthening in expected new orders growth to 15.3 and expected shipments to 27.3, though expected production fell to 22.6. The future wages & benefits reading jumped to 32.1, its highest level since February. The future employment index rose to 15.4 and the future wages & benefits reading doubled to 32.1. The future capital spending reading, however, fell to 16.9 and the future production weakened to 22.6 and remained below a November high of 45.2. The future capital spending reading declined to 16.9 and reversed half of its May improvement.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease in activity from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- Weakness in general business activity index has diminished.
- Employment & capital spending readings improve.
- Expectations for shipments & new orders rise. 
- Current capital spending jumps but expectations weaken.

Texas Manufacturing Activity Improves Modestly in June; Expectations Jump

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Tian Yong Woon

This week, we look at the state of US–Asia trade talks as the July 9 expiration of the US’ 90-day tariff pause approaches. Despite early activity, few deals have been finalized. So far, the US has reached only a limited agreement with the UK and rolled back mutual tariffs with China, alongside a framework on rare earth exports. Much of the action has focused on undoing previous measures rather than making new advances. Still, Asian markets have shown signs of stability (chart 1), though volatility may return as the tariff deadline nears. The outcome remains uncertain. President Trump has indicated flexibility on the deadline, and Treasury Secretary Bessent has suggested more deals may come only by Labor Day in September. Meanwhile, US effective tariff rates have already risen (chart 2), though inflation impacts have been muted, likely due in part to importers absorbing costs.

Among Asian partners, India shows the most near-term promise, with ongoing talks focused on mutual market access, though barriers remain in agriculture and dairy (chart 3). Japan has made no breakthroughs despite pressing concerns over auto and metal tariffs—sectors key to exports and GVA (chart 4). South Korea, just emerging from political transition, is only beginning substantive talks (chart 5). In Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Vietnam are among the most likely to reach agreements. Both face steep tariff hikes if talks fail, particularly Vietnam with a potential 46% rate. Indonesia has submitted proposals, while Vietnam remains optimistic. Thailand, still early in talks and politically distracted, is unlikely to meet the July 9 deadline (chart 6).

**US trade deals so far this year**
We have already reached the end of the first half of the year, and the US’ flurry of trade-related actions has so far yielded tangible outcomes with only a few countries. To date, the US has concluded a limited trade deal with the UK and reached an agreement with China to roll back many of the tariffs both sides imposed earlier this year. More recently, the US and China also established a framework concerning China’s rare earth export controls. That said, much of the world remains without new US trade deals. Most of the developments thus far have focused on partially reversing measures implemented earlier this year, rather than advancing beyond the pre-inauguration day baseline. Still, a measure of market calm has returned—at least in Asia—as reflected in recent rallies across some of the region’s equity indexes (chart 1). However, renewed volatility may lie ahead as the July 9 expiration of the US’ 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs approaches.

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The situation, however, remains highly fluid. While US President Trump may reimpose his “Liberation Day” tariffs if no deals are reached by the July 9 deadline, he could also opt to extend the pause—especially if there appears to be potential for favourable trade agreements. This possibility was hinted at by Trump himself, who remarked that the US “could do whatever we want,” including extending or even shortening the deadlines. Also, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested that additional trade deals are more likely to materialize by Labor Day on September 1 instead of the July 9 deadline. Complicating progress on US trade talks with other countries is a string of recent geopolitical flashpoints—including US involvement, directly or indirectly, in the Israel-Iran, Israel-Hamas, and Russia-Ukraine conflicts. These crises have dominated headlines and may have also diverted the President’s attention. In the meantime, US effective tariff rates have already increased, as shown in chart 2, reflecting the impact of tariffs already in force. Interestingly, US inflation has not yet spiked as might have been expected. This could be partly due to importers absorbing some of the tariff costs by cutting prices.

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