Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• 

  USA| May 10 2022

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Remains Weak

  • Optimism holds at lowest level since April 2020.
  • Expectations of better business conditions in next six months fall to another all-time low.
  • Pricing power nears record high.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| May 09 2022

  U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong Gain in March

  • Strong increases are registered broadly.
  • Widespread sales gains also are registered.
  • Inventory-to-sales ratio steadies.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• USA| May 06 2022

  U.S. Job Market Strength Continues in April

  • Employment gains moderate, but remain robust.
  • Hourly earnings growth stays strong y/y.
  • Jobless rate steadies near 50-year low.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Viewpoints
• 

  USA| May 05 2022

  U.S. Productivity Declines and Drives Labor Costs Higher in Q1

  • Productivity drop is greater-than-expected.
  • Compensation gain weakens.
  • Unit labor costs surge.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| May 04 2022

  FOMC Lifts Funds Rate Target by Half Point as Expected

  At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed announced that it will raise the target for the Federal funds rate to a range of 0.75% - 1.00% from 0.25% - 0.50%. It placed the rate at the highest level since March 2020. The move was as expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

  The Fed also "anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate."

  The statement indicated that, "Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending and business fixed investment remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures."

  It also stated, "The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks."

  In addition, the Fed will begin reducing its $9 trillion portfolio of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities on June 1.

  Today's action was endorsed by each member of the FOMC.

  The statement issued following today's meeting can be found here.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| May 04 2022

  U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Growth Slows Sharply in April

  • Overall gain is weaker than expected.
  • Small business hiring declines.
  • Slowdown is broad-based amongst industries.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| May 04 2022

  U.S. ISM Services Index Declines in April

  • Falloff is greater-than-expected.
  • Sub-index movement is mixed.
  • Prices strengthen to record high.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| May 03 2022

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Improve in April

  • Auto & light truck sales rise following two months of decline.
  • Sales remain constrained as parts shortages limit dealer inventory.
  • Imports' share increases slightly.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| May 03 2022

  U.S. Factory Orders & Shipments Surge

  • Orders increase broadly.
  • Shipments strengthen for third straight month.
  • Unfilled orders & inventories continue to rise.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| May 03 2022

  U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed

  • Gasoline prices increase sharply.
  • Crude oil prices ease.
  • Natural gas prices fall.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| May 02 2022

  U.S. Manufacturing Activity Continues to Soften in April

  • Index level reaches lowest level since September 2020.
  • Component declines are broad-based.
  • Prices paid ease.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| May 02 2022

  U.S. Employment Costs Accelerate in Q1'22

  • Wage and salaries improve.
  • Benefits skyrocket.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief