Tom Moeller

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Personal consumption expenditures jumped 1.1% during March (9.1% y/y) following a 0.6% February gain, revised from 0.2%. A 0.7% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Adjusted for price inflation, spending increased 0.2% last month (2.3% y/y) after rising 0.1% in February.

Real spending on durable goods declined 0.9% in March (-10.7% y/y), the same as in February. The decline reflected a 2.0% drop (-23.5% y/y) in real outlays on motor vehicles & parts after falling 3.7% in February. Real furniture & appliance outlays weakened 1.3% (-9.9% y/y) easing 0.4% in the prior month. Real outlays on recreational goods & vehicles improved 0.3% (0.1% y/y) after holding steady in February. Real nondurable goods buying fell 0.3% in March (-0.8% y/y) after a 0.7% decline. Adjusted for inflation, clothing outlays eased slightly (-3.4% y/y) after a 0.8% February decline. Real food & beverage expenditures fell 0.4% (-2.8% y/y) after falling 1.6%. Real spending on gasoline & other energy products weakened 1.6% (+2.2% y/y) after rising 2.9% in February. Real outlays on services improved 0.6% (6.3% y/y) in March, the same as in February. Housing & utilities spending improved 0.1% (1.2% y/y) as it followed a 0.6% decline. Real outlays on recreation services offset that decline and surged 1.5% (18.7% y/y) after strengthening 1.8% in May. Real spending at hotels & restaurants jumped 1.2% last month (13.4% y/y) after rising 2.8% in February.

Pricing power continued to strengthen last month. The PCE chain price index rose 0.9% in March (6.6% y/y) following three consecutive months of 0.5% increase. The price index excluding food and energy rose 0.3%, with the 5.2% y/y gain remaining near the strongest rise since 1983. Durable goods prices slipped 0.1% (+10.2% y/y). The nondurables goods price index strengthened 2.8% (10.7% y/y) after rising 1.8% in February as gasoline & oil costs surged 18.0% (48.3% y/y) after a 6.7% rise. The services price index rose 0.4% last month (4.5% y/y) after rising 0.2%.

Personal income rose 0.5% (-11.6% y/y) during March following a 0.7% rise. Wages & salaries increased 0.6% last month (11.7% y/y) after strengthening 1.1% in February. Rental income rose 0.7% (5.0% y/y) after two months of 0.6% gain. Proprietors' income rose 0.8% (5.3% y/y) after a 1.5% rise. Transfer receipts rose 0.3% (-51.5% y/y) after easing slightly in February.

Disposable personal income increased 0.5% (-14.7% y/y) in March, after rising 0.7% in February. Adjusted for price inflation, disposable income fell 0.4% (-19.9% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.

The personal savings rate eased to 6.2% in March from 6.8% in February. It remained down from a high of 33.8% in April of 2020. The level of personal savings fell 7.9% last month and has fallen by roughly three-quarters during the last twelve months.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Gasoline leads nominal spending but falls in real terms.
- Core price inflation eases m/m.
- Wage & salary growth remains firm.

U.S. Personal Spending Surges With Higher Prices in March

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U.S. real GDP contracted by 1.4% (SAAR) last quarter following an unrevised 6.9% rise during Q4'21. It was the only quarter of negative growth since the end of the recession in Q2'20. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.0% increase.

Deterioration in the foreign trade balance subtracted 3.2 percentage points from growth as exports fell 5.9% (+4.1% y/y) and imports jumped 17.7% (11.7% y/y). Inventory liquidation also reduced growth by 0.8 percentage points.

Growth in final demand to domestic purchasers improved last quarter. The 2.6% rise followed a 1.7% gain in Q4'21 and was the largest of three quarters of modest growth. Personal consumption rose 2.7%. Motor vehicle buying gained 10.4% (-11.7% y/y) and spending on recreational goods & vehicles increased 6.7% (5.9% y/y). Furniture & appliance purchases fell 4.7% (-5.1% y/y). ln the nondurable goods category, apparel spending declined 5.9% (+5.9% y/y) while gasoline expenditures fell 15.0% (+6.9% y/y). In the services area, recreation expenditures rose 5.4% (21.4% y/y) while restaurant & hotel spending rose 4.9% (19.5% y/y). Health care expenditures increased 3.7% (5.6% y/y) while outlays on housing & utilities firmed 2.8% (1.2% y/y).

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In the capital goods sector, spending rose 9.2% but structures investment fell 0.9% (-4.1% y/y). Equipment investment countered that decline and surged 15.4% (6.8% y/y). Investment in computers strengthened 22.4% (9.4% Y/Y) and industrial equipment investment surged 23.8% (18.9% y/y). Transportation equipment investment fell 9.2% (-7.1% y/y). Investment in intellectual property products increased 8.1% (9.6% y/y).

Residential investment rose 2.1% last quarter, equal to the gain in Q4'21. These increases followed two straight quarters of sharp decline.

In the government sector, spending declined 2.7%. Federal government outlays fell 5.9% (-5.2% y/y) as defense spending declined 8.5% (-4.4% y/y). State & local government outlays eased 0.8% (+0.6% y/y).

Pricing power continued to strengthen last quarter. The 8.0% increase in the chain-type price index exceeded expectation for a 7.3% rise. It was the largest since Q3'81 and paced by a 17.8% surge in the cost of residential investment. Overall consumer prices rose 7.0%. The nondurable consumer goods price index rose 14.9% (8.8% y/y) with the surge in gasoline prices. The durable consumer goods price index rose 6.5% (10.9% y/y) and the consumer services price index gained 4.6% both q/q and y/y. Outside of food & energy, the price index increased 5.2% both q/q and y/y. The business investment price index increased 6.8% (4.9% y/y). The government sector price index increased 9.1% (7.2% y/y).

The GDP figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts. Both databases include tables of the newly published not seasonally adjusted data. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Int'l trade deficit subtracts near-record from total GDP.
- Inventory decumulation is moderate.
- Domestic demand picks up.

U.S. GDP Declines Unexpectedly in Q1'22

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The home buying market remains soft. The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors fell 1.2% in March (-8.2% y/y) following a 4.0% February fall, revised from -4.1%. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline with total sales down 19.0% from the August 2020 peak.

Pending home sales declined throughout most of the country in March except the Northeast where they rose 4.0% (-9.2% y/y). Sales in the Midwest fell 6.1% (-4.8% y/y) to the lowest level since April 2020. In the West, sales eased 0.2% (-8.4% y/y) and were 21.7% below the August 2020 high. March sales in the South declined 0.9% (-9.5% y/y) to the lowest level since April 2020.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **SURVEYW** database.

- Sales decline to lowest level since May 2020.
- Sales fall in most sections of the country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Continue to Fall in March

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The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods deteriorated to a record $125.32 billion in March from $106.35 billion in February. A $105.0 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports of goods increased 7.2% (18.1% y/y) following a 1.7% February rise. Imports gained 11.5% (25.6% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in February.

The March increase in exports reflected a 3.1% (22.0% y/y) rise in non-auto consumer goods which followed a 6.7% February rise. Exports of foods, feeds & beverages rose 4.7% last month (11.3% y/y) about the same as in the prior month. Industrial supplies & materials exports rose 12.3% last month (30.9% y/y) after rising 3.0%. Exports of autos & parts rose 8.4% (1.5% y/y) following a 2.3% decline. Capital goods exports improved 1.7% in March (9.4% y/y) after falling 1.5% in February.

Imports increased as industrial supplies & materials strengthened 15.0% in March (48.1% y/y) after rising 5.5% in February. Nonauto consumer goods imports improved 13.6% (25.8% y/y) following a 0.7% rise. Imports of autos & parts gained 12.0% (8.0% y/y) which came after a 9.9% decline. Capital goods imports rose 7.6% (18.3% y/y), after a 1.4% gain. Increasing by 6.2% in March (25.1% y/y) were imports of foods, feeds & beverages which followed February's 3.0% decline.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's**USECON**database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in**AS1REPNA**.

- Export gain is firm.
- Import surge is broad-based.

U.S. Int'l Trade Deficit in Goods Sets New Record in March

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**Retail gasoline prices** rose to $4.11 gallon in the week ended April 25 (43.0% y/y) from $4.07 per gallon the prior week. The gain followed five straight weeks of decline. Prices set a record $4.32 per gallon in the second week of March. Haver Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for normal seasonal variation, and the seasonally adjusted price was $4.18 per gallon from $4.14 in the prior week.

The price of **West Texas Intermediate crude oil** increased to $103.88 per barrel (67.1% y/y) in the week ended April 22 after rising to $101.44 per barrel in the prior week. These compare to a high of $113.33 averaged in the fourth week of March. Yesterday, the price fell to $98.44 per barrel. The average price of **Brent crude** oil was $108.40 per barrel ($64.1%), up from $106.27 the prior week. The price was $100.98 per barrel yesterday.

The price of **natural gas** fell in the week ended April 22 to $7.10/mmbtu (157.3% y/y) after rising to $6.64 in the previous week. The price has risen from a low of $1.52/mmbtu averaged in the third week of June 2020. Yesterday, the price declined to $6.42/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended April 15, **gasoline demand** declined 3.0% y/y. Growth in demand for **all petroleum products** weakened 1.5% y/y. Growth in **crude oil input to refineries** eased to 5.5% y/y. **Gasoline inventories** decreased 1.1% y/y while **crude oil inventories** declined 11.6% y/y.

The **supply of gasoline** inventories in the week ended April 15 was1 26.8 days, down slightly from 27.1 days in the previous week. The supply of crude oil fell to 26.2 days from 26.7 days in the prior week.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY.**

- Gasoline prices rebound.
- Crude oil prices continue to strengthen.
- Natural gas prices ease.

U.S. Energy Prices Increase

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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index during April weakened 0.3% (-8.7% y/y) to 107.3 from 107.6, revised from 107.2. A reading of 107.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The Present Situation Index fell 0.8% this month (+15.7% y/y) to 152.6 after rising 7.6% in March to 153.8. The Consumer Expectations index improved 0.7% in April (-28.5% y/y) to 77.2, following three straight months of sharp decline.

The jobs gap, representing the difference between respondents indicating that jobs are plentiful and those saying jobs are hard to get, slipped to a 44.6% from the record 47.1% in March. Calculated by Haver Analytics, this series has had a 69% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years. The jobs plentiful measure fell this month to 55.2% from the record 56.7% in March. The jobs hard-to-get measure rose to 10.6% of respondents.

Current business conditions were perceived as good by an increased 20.8% of respondents in April. Expectations that business conditions would improve in six months fell to 18.1% of respondents, down from 42.5% in April 2020. More jobs were expected in six months by a lessened 17.4% of respondents, half the percentage twelve months ago. The percentage expecting rising income improved to 16.5% of respondents.

The expected inflation rate in twelve months slipped to 7.5% from 7.9% in March. It remained up from a 4.4% low in January of 2020. Roughly two-thirds of respondents expected that interest rates would rise over the next twelve months, the most in three years. The share of respondents planning to buy a home within six months held fairly steady m/m at 5.9% and remained below a June 2020 high of 6.8%. Those planning to buy a major appliance rose sharply m/m to 49.8% of respondents, but remained below 53.9% registered in July 2021.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver's **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Present situation & expectations are little changed m/m.
- Expectations for employment deteriorates.
- Expectations for inflation dip.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slips in April

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Manufacturing activity in Texas weakened during April, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The general business activity index fell to 1.1 this month, the lowest level since July 2020. An improved 19.5% of respondents reported improved business activity in April, but a greatly increased 18.4% reported a deterioration. The company outlook index weakened to -5.5 this month from -0.7 in March. These figures are the lowest since the spring of 2020. Data were collected between April 12-20 from 94 manufacturers.

The production index fell to 10.8 in April from 13.2 in March. It was down from a high of 48.6 in March 2021. The unfilled orders reading eased to 10.5 and reversed half of its March rise to 12.4 in the prior month.

Labor market activity eased. The employment reading weakened to 24.6 from 25.5. A slightly higher 34.3% of respondents planned to raise employment while a greatly increased 9.7% planned to lower it. The wages & reading slipped to 50.9 from 55.2.

The index for prices received for finished goods rose fell to 43.5 in April and reversed all of the prior month's rise to 47.8, which was the highest level since October of last year. The latest reading reflected a lessened 46.9% of respondents reporting price gains and an increased 3.4% reported price declines. The index of prices paid for raw materials fell sharply to 61.5, which was the lowest level since February of last year.

The future general business activity index fell sharply to 1.8 in April from 8.2 in March. It was the lowest reading since May 2020. Expected production, shipments and wages & benefits each fell. The expected growth rate for new orders fell sharply to the lowest level in two years.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report rising activity, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Production & employment fall.
- New orders growth and shipments improve.
- Prices received & wages ease.

Texas Manufacturing Activity & Outlook Deteriorate in April

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago reported that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to 0.44 during March from 0.54 in February, revised from 0.51.

The index's three-month moving average improved to 0.57 in March from 0.43 in February because of a strong January. During the last 10 years, there has been 76% correlation between the change in the Chicago Fed Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.

The Employment, Unemployment & Hours component fell to 0.16 in March and reversed its February gain. The Production & Income index slipped to 0.27 from 0.30 in February, but it remained up from -0.13 in December. Working the other way, the Sales, Orders & Inventories reading rose to 0.06 last month after declining to -0.03 in February. The Personal Consumption & Housing index held steady last month at -0.04.

The CFNAI diffusion index, which measures the breadth of movement in the component series, rose to 0.45 in March from 0.31. Fifty-nine of the 85 component series contributed positively to the overall index and 26 contributed negatively.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. The CFNAI was constructed using data available as of March 17, 2022. February data for 50 of the 85 indicators had been published at that time. For all missing data, estimates were used in constructing the index.

The index is constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Two of four major components ease.
- Three-month moving average improves.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Weakens in March

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) improved 0.1% during the four weeks ended April 22 and rose 14.7% over the last year.

Prices in the **metals** group increased 1.9% in the last four weeks, up 35.1% during the last year. The gain was led by a 13.2% increase (59.1% y/y) in the price of zinc which is used in batteries. Tin and lead prices also rose. These increases were offset by a 7.8% decline (+34.9% y/y) in aluminum prices. The price of steel scrap fell 1.6% (+47.3% y/y). Copper scrap prices eased 0.2% in four weeks but were up 9.4% y/y.

**Textile** group prices improved 0.8% (10.2% y/y) during the last four weeks, led by cotton prices which increased 6.2%, up by two-thirds y/y. The cost of burlap, used for sacks, bags and gardening, eased 1.5% in the last four weeks but rose 15.8% during the last year.

Offsetting the increases was a 1.9% decline (+17.4% y/y) in the **crude oil & benzene** group prices. Crude oil costs alone fell 5.6% in four weeks yet were up roughly two-thirds y/y. The per barrel price of crude oil of $105.06 was 9.1% below the $115.64 per barrel high in the second week of March. The price of the petro-chemical benzene rose 1.1% during the last four weeks, but was 16.6% lower y/y. Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices rose 0.5% during the last four week and gained 12.1% in the last year.

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In the **miscellaneous** group, prices fell 1.1% during the last four weeks (+1.1% y/y). Framing lumber prices weakened 13.2% in four weeks and by 26.9% y/y. This decline was countered by a 5.8% increase (11.4% y/y) in natural rubber prices.

Industrial commodity prices should remain firm. The National Association for Business Economics expects a 4.1% rise in industrial output in 2022 and a 2.6% increase in 2023.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Metal & textile costs rise further.
- Prices decline elsewhere.
- Lumber prices post another big decline.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Are Little Changed

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Business Conditions Index declined to 17.6 during April from 27.4 in March. The decline mostly reversed the March rise from 16.0. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a decline to 20.6. The percentage of firms reporting improved conditions fell to 34.2% from 40.2% in March. The share reporting weaker conditions increased 16.6% from 12.7%. Responses to this month's survey were collected from April 11 through April 18.

Haver Analytics calculates an ISM-Adjusted General Business Conditions Index from five key components using the same methodology as the national ISM index. The index fell to 59.7 this month from 61.4 in March.

Performance of the subindexes was mixed. The new orders index weakened to 17.8 from 25.8. The shipments series fell to 19.1 from 30.2, while the unfilled orders measure dropped to 5.7 from 21.0. The delivery times reading slid to 17.9 from 39.7. The average workweek measure eased to 20.8 from 21.4.

To the upside, the inventory series increased to 11.9 from 0.5 in March. Also rising was the employment measure to a record 41.4 from 38.9. A slightly lessened 42.2% of respondents raised employment versus 43.7% in March who did so, but a minimal 0.7% cut payroll sizes after 4.8% did in March.

Inflation pressures increased. The prices paid reading strengthened to a near-record 84.6 in April from 81.0 in March. A slightly lessened 85.1% of respondents reported paying higher prices while only 0.5% reported paying lower prices. The prices received index increased to 55.0 in April, but remained below the 62.9% reading in November.

The Philadelphia Fed also surveys expectations for business activity in the coming six months. The expectations index for future activity collapsed to 8.2 in April, the lowest reading since December 2008 when the economy was in recession. The decline in April was led by expected weaker new orders, delivery times and employment. Expected prices paid eased slightly from a near-record level in March.

The survey panel consists of 150 manufacturing companies in the third Federal Reserve District (which consists of southeastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware). The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease in activity. The ISM-adjusted figure, calculated by Haver Analytics, is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, delivery times and inventories with equal weights. Each ISM-adjusted index is the sum of the percent responding "higher" and one-half of the percent responding "no change."

The figures from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve dating back to 1968 can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectation from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Component movement is mixed.
- Jobs rise but hours-worked fall.
- Prices paid continue to strengthen.

U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index Declines & Expectations Collapse in April

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The Conference Board's Composite Leading Economic Indicators index increased 0.3% during March (6.4% y/y) after rising 0.6% in February, revised from 0.3%. The gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Leading Index is comprised of 10 components which tend to precede changes in overall economic activity.

Seven of the index components contributed positively to the March increase including the length of the average workweek, initial unemployment insurance claims, factory orders for consumer goods, nondefense capital goods orders, building permits, the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond & Fed funds rate and the leading credit index. Consumer expectations for business & economic conditions, the ISM orders index and stock prices contributed negatively to the index change.

The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators rose 0.4% during March (3.1% y/y), the same as in February, which was unrevised. Each of the four components contributed positively to the index change including nonagricultural employment, personal income less transfers, real manufacturing & trade sales and industrial production.

The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators increased 0.6% last month (6.4% y/y) after rising 0.2% in February, revised from no change. The average duration of unemployment, the business inventory-to-sales ratio, the change in factory sector unit labor costs, banks' prime rate, C&I loans, and the services CPI contributed positively to the index change. The consumer installment/personal income ratio was slightly negative.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [site](http://www.conference-board.org/) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

**Steering Toward Sustainable Growth** from Mary C. Daly, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available [here](https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/Steering-Toward-Sustainable-Growth%5FUNLV%5F20Apr22%5FFINAL%5F2.pdf).

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- Component increases are mixed.
- Coincident indicators continue to rise.
- Lagging indicators strengthen.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rise Moderately in March

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The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index declined 5.0% (-48.4% y/y) in the week ended April 15, the sixth consecutive weekly decline. The decline was to the lowest level since the week ended February 8, 2019. Applications for refinancing declined 7.7% (-68.2% y/y) last week following a 4.9% weakening in the previous week. Applications for purchase fell 3.0% (-14.0% y/y) following a 1.4% gain in the prior week.

The share of applications for refinancing fell sharply to 35.7%, down from 76.5% early in March 2020. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 10.6% from 9.2% in the previous week.

The effective rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans increased to 5.39%, the highest level since April 2010. The effective rate on 15-year fixed-rate loans rose to 4.63%. The rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan increased to 4.89% and the rate on a 5-year ARM was little-changed at 4.29%.

Applications for fixed-rate loans declined 6.1% (-51.0% y/y) in the week ended April 15 after falling 1.9% in the previous week. Applications for adjustable-rate mortgages increased 9.1% (+21.2% y/y) following an 8.3% rise in the previous week.

The average size of a mortgage loan rose 1.0% (19.9% y/y) to a record $396,000. The average size of a loan for purchase edged up 0.2% (11.7% y/y) to $453,800. The average size of a refinanced loan gained 1.1% (4.3% y/y) to $291,500.

This survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks, and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

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- Refinancing falloff is pronounced.
- Purchase applications reverse earlier increase.
- Mortgage interest rates increase modestly w/w.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Decline as Rates Rise

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