Tom Moeller

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Industrial production increased 0.9% (5.5% y/y) during March following a 0.9% February gain, revised from 0.5%. January's 1.0% rise was revised from 1.4%. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Manufacturing output rose 0.9% (4.9% y/y) in March after increasing an unrevised 1.2% in February. January's 0.2% gain compared to 0.1% reported last month. Utilities output rose 0.4% (7.5% y/y) following February's 1.0% decline. Mining output strengthened 1.7% (7.0% y/y) after a 1.2% February increase.

The March production increase was led by a 7.8% rise (3.9% y/y) in motor vehicle output which followed a 4.6% decline. Output of computers & electronic products improved 0.6% (7.5% y/y) following a 2.1% jump. Machinery production rose 0.8% (6.1% y/y) after increasing 0.5% and electrical equipment & appliance production rose 1.0% (5.5% y/y), half the February increase. In the nondurable goods sector, the lessened 0.4% rise reflected a 0.5% gain (-0.3% y/) in apparel production as it came after February's 2.1% surge. Chemical production rose a fairly steady 0.7% (9.8% y/y) while food & beverage output increased 0.3% (0.8% y/y), half the prior month's increase. Petroleum output rose 0.7% (2.4% y/y) after February's 2.4% surge.

In the special classifications, factory output of high technology industries rose 1.4% in March (8.9% y/y) after a 2.6% gain. Less the high technology sector, factory output rose 0.8% (4.8% y/y) following a 1.4% rise. Maufacturing production excluding both high tech and autos rose 0.4% (4.9% y/y) after surging 1.5% in February.

Capacity utilization rose to 78.3% last month from 77.7% in February. A 77.8% rate had been expected. Utilization in the factory sector rose to 78.7%, the highest rate since July 2007. Factory sector capacity rose 0.3% y/y.

Industrial production and capacity are located in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Overall production growth is steady but factory sector slows.
- Slowdown is broad-based.
- Capacity utilization strengthens.

U.S. Industrial Production Remains Strong in March

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Consumer spending growth remains moderate. Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 0.5% during March (6.9% y/y) after rising 0.8% in February, revised from 0.3%. A 0.6% sales increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts strengthened 1.1% (9.1% y/y) following a 0.6% February increase, revised from 0.2%. Expectations had been for a 0.9% increase.

Reflecting higher prices, gasoline service station sales surged 8.9% (37.0% y/y) after rising 6.7% in February. Gasoline prices rose 18.3% last month (48.0% y/y) as indicated in this week's CPI report.

Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials and food services, eased 0.1% in March (+4.4% y/y) after falling 0.9% during February, revised from -1.2%.

Elsewhere, there was improvement in sales. General merchandise store sales jumped 5.4% last month (5.2% y/y) after a 0.2% dip in February. Within that category, department store sales eased 0.3% (+7.4% y/y) after strong gains in the prior two months. Electronics & appliance store sales surged 3.3% (-9.7% y/y) following a 0.3% gain. Sporting goods, hobby and book store sales also jumped 3.3% (-5.1% y/y) last month, about the same as in February. Apparel store sales surged 2.6% (7.3% y/y) after rising 0.6%. Furniture & home furnishing store sales rose 0.7% (3.6% y/y) after increasing 2.7% in February. Building materials & garden equipment sales rose 0.5% last month (0.6% y/y) after a 0.9% February rise.

Weakness in retail sales last month reflected a 6.4% decline (+1.8% y/y) in purchases via the internet. Sales fell sharply in three of the last four months. Also falling were motor vehicle sales by 1.9% (-1.2% y/y) after rising 1.5% in February. Unit motor vehicle sales fell 4.6% last month (-23.7% y/y) after declining 6.6% in February.

In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & beverage store sales surged 1.0% (8.4% y/y) during March after falling 0.3% in February. Health & personal care store sales declined 0.3% (+1.4% y/y) after falling 0.6% in February.

Sales at restaurants & drinking establishments strengthened 1.0% in March (19.4% y/y) after rising 3.0% in February.

The retail sales data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The Action Economics forecast is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

**2021: The Year of High Inflation** from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available [here](https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/apr/2021-year-high-inflation).

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- Individual categories are mostly firm.
- Online sales fall sharply.
- Vehicle sales decline.

U.S. Retail Sales Rise With Higher Gasoline Prices in March

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Total business inventories rose 1.5% during February (12.4% y/y) following a 1.3% January rise, revised from 1.1%. A 1.3% gain had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey. Business sales rose 1.0% (18.8% y/y) in February following a 4.1% January gain. The inventory-to-sales ratio edged higher to 1.26 after falling to 1.25 in January. These figures remained up slightly versus the record low of 1.24 reached last October

The 2.5% increase (19.9% y/y) in wholesale inventories, reported last month, led the rise in inventories overall. Retail inventories gained 1.2% (7.3% y/y) following a 2.0% January increase. The rise reflected a 0.9% increase (-10.3% y/y) in auto inventories which came after three straight months of strong gains. Furniture, electronics and appliance store inventories gained 4.6% (22.3% y/y) after two months of strong growth. General merchandise store inventories surged 2.0% (22.2% y/y) after rising 5.0% in January. Clothing store inventories rose 1.2% (13.7% y/y), the sixth consecutive month of strong increases. Factory inventories increased 0.6% (9.7% y/y) after rising 0.8% in January.

The rise in business sales was led by a 1.7% increase in wholesale sales as reported last Friday. Retail sales increased 0.5% in February (16.4% y/y) after a 5.8% January increase while nonauto retail sales increased 0.2% (16.0% y/y) after surging 5.5% in January. Manufacturing sales posted a 0.6% gain (13.7% y/y) in February following a 1.4% jump in the prior month.

The overall inventory-to-sales ratio edged higher due to modest increases in the retail and wholesale sectors to 1.13 and 1.21, respectively. The I/S ratio in the factory sector held steady at 1.45

The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's **USECON** database.

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- Retail inventories continue to build.
- Wholesale inventory gain firms.
- Inventory-to-sales ratio edges higher from near-record low.

U.S. Business Inventories & Sales Advance in February

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The Producer Price Index for Final Demand increased a record 1.4% during March following a 0.9% February gain, revised from 0.8%. The 11.2% increase during the last twelve months also was a record for the series which dates back to November 2009. A 1.1% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The PPI excluding food and energy matched its record and rose 1.0% (9.2% y/y) after rising 0.4% in February. Expectations had been for a 0.5% gain. The PPI less food, energy and trade services rose 0.9% (7.0% y/y) after increasing 0.2% in February.

A 5.7% surge (36.7% y/y) in energy prices led last month's increase in the PPI following a 7.5% February rise. Gasoline prices rose 4.9% (59.9% y/y) and added to February's 14.6% surge. Home heating oil prices jumped 20.2% and more than doubled y/y after a 13.6% February rise. Natural gas prices eased 0.4% last month (+22.8% y/y) but the cost of electric power jumped 1.9% (8.4% y/y).

Food prices increased 2.4% in March (16.2% y/y) after rising 2.1% in February. Vegetable prices rose 81.5% y/y while egg prices increased 1.9% y/y. Beef & veal prices fell 7.3% (+16.0% y/y) but the cost of dairy products increased 2.7% (19.3% y/y).

Final demand for goods prices less foods & energy increased 1.1% (10.0% y/y). Finished consumer goods prices less good & energy rose 0.7% in March (7.7% y/y) following a 1.0% increase. Durable consumer goods prices surged 1.0% last month (8.9% y/y) after two straight 0.9% increases. Core nondurable consumer goods prices rose 0.5% (7.0% y/y) following a 1.0% February increase. Prices for private capital equipment jumped 0.9% (8.7% y/y) following two straight 1.0% gains.

Services prices increased 0.9% in March (8.7% y/y) for the third month in the last four. Trade services prices surged 1.2% (17.1% y/y) following four straight months of strong increase. Services prices less trade, transportation & warehousing rose 0.3% in March (3.8% y/y) and reversed the prior month's decline.

Construction product prices rose 0.6% (16.7% y/y) after rising 0.5% in February. Construction costs for private capital investment rose 0.6% (18.2% y/y) for the second consecutive month.

Intermediate goods prices jumped 2.1% (21.7% y/y) due to a 6.4% gain (35.5% y/y) in processed fuel costs.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Energy & food prices again jump.
- Core goods prices accelerate.
- Services prices pick up momentum as well.

U.S. Producer Prices Post Record Increase in March

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**Retail gasoline prices** declined to $4.09 per gallon in the week ended April 11 (+43.6% y/y) from $4.17 per gallon in the week prior. Prices reached a record $4.32 per gallon in the second week of March. Haver Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for normal seasonal variation. The seasonally adjusted price fell to $4.16 per gallon from $4.21 in the prior week.

The price of **West Texas Intermediate crude oil** eased to $99.16 per barrel (+67.10% y/y) in the week ended April 8 after falling to $103.84 in the week prior. It compared to a high of $113.33 averaged in the fourth week of March and was the lowest price since the last week of February. Yesterday, the price fell to $94.29 per barrel. The average price of **Brent crude oil** weakened to $103.33 per barrel last week (+67.1% y/y). Prices had fallen to $111.26 in the prior week from the high of $123.60 in the week prior. The price was $97.92 per barrel yesterday.

The price of **natural gas** strengthened to $6.08/mmbtu (148.2% y/y) in the week of April 8 after rising to $5.41 in the previous week. The price has risen from a low of $1.52/mmbtu averaged in the third week of June 2020. Yesterday, the price rose to $6.35/mmbtu.

In the four weeks ended April 1, **gasoline demand** eased 0.3% y/y. Demand had risen 15.2% y/y in late-December, 2021. Growth in demand for **all petroleum products** rose a greatly lessened 5.5% y/y. Growth in **crude oil input to refineries** rose a reduced 9.6 y/y. **Gasoline inventories** rose a weakened 0.9% y/y and **crude oil inventories** declined 14.0% y/y.

The **supply of gasoline** inventories in the week ended April 1 held steady at 27.3 days. The supply of crude oil eased to 26.0 days and remained down from 41.8 days early in March of last year.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's **WEEKLY** and **DAILY** databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in **USENERGY.**

**Unemployment Insurance Withdrawal** from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available [here](https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/).

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- Gasoline costs at six-week low.
- Crude oil prices weaken further.
- Natural gas prices continue to rise.

U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Fall Further

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The U.S. Treasury Department reported a federal budget deficit of $192.7 billion during March 2022 compared to a $659.6 billion deficit in March 2021. Receipts rose 8.7% from February (17.8% y/y) while outlays edged 0.3% higher (-45.2% y/y). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a $132 billion deficit. So far in FY'22, the deficit has totaled $668.3 billion versus $1.706 trillion in the first six months of FY'21.

Overall revenues have increased 24.5% y/y so far in FY'22. Individual income tax receipts increased 36.3% y/y as employment levels continued to rise. Corporate tax payments rose 22.1% with strength in business earnings. Social insurance taxes rose 8.8% y/y and excise taxes rose 26.9% y/y.

Federal government outlays have declined 18.2% year-to-date in FY'22 versus FY'21. Income security payments roughly halved so far this year in the absence of economic stimulus checks. National defense outlays fell 1.2% y/y so far in FY'22. Outlays on health programs rose 20.3% y/y in the first six months of FY'22. Social Security outlays increased 6.0% y/y so far this fiscal year and Medicare outlays rose 0.5% y/y so far this fiscal year. Interest payments surged 24.9% y/y so far in FY'22.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in **USECON**. The expectations figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Tax revenues continue to surge.
- Outlays fall gain as spending on income security & defense decline.
- Interest payments jump.

U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficit Narrows in March

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The Consumer Price Index gained 1.2% (8.5% y/y) last month after rising 0.8% in February. It was the largest monthly increase since October 2005. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy rose 0.3% last month (6.5% y/y), the weakest monthly increase in six months. It compared to a 0.5% expected gain.

Energy prices were strong in March, surging 11.0% (32.0% y/y). Gasoline prices jumped 18.3% (48.0% y/y) to a record high. Fuel oil prices surged 22.3% (70.1% y/y). The cost of electricity strengthened 2.2% (11.1% y/y), while natural gas prices rose 0.6% (21.6% y/y).

Food price inflation remained strong last month and posted a second consecutive 1.0% gain (8.8% y/y). Egg prices rose 1.9% (11.2% y/y) while fruit & vegetable prices jumped 1.5% (8.5% y/y). Cereal & bakery product prices also gained 1.5% (9.4% y/y) while dairy product costs strengthened 1.2% (7.0% y/y). Meat, poultry & fish prices gained 0.9% (13.8% y/y).

Services prices rose 0.6% (4.7% y/y), the quickest increase since September 1990. The cost of public transportation surged 7.1% (14.9% y/y), twice the elevated February increase. Hotel prices strengthened 3.3% (25.1% y/y) while the owners equivalent rent of primary residences gained 0.4% (4.5% y/y). Rents of primary residences rose 0.4% (4.4% y/y). The cost of medical care services rose 0.6% (2.9% y/y). Recreation services prices rose 0.5% (4.8% y/y). Education prices eased 0.1% (+1.6% y/y).

Goods prices excluding food & energy declined 0.4% (+11.7% y/y) in March. Price changes within categories were mixed. Used car & truck prices slid 3.8% (+35.3% y/y). Education & communication product prices fell 0.6% (+1.3% y/y) while recreation product prices eased 0.1% (+4.7% y/y). To the upside, household appliance prices surged 1.5% (8.0% y/y) while furnishings prices rose 1.0% (10.8% y/y). Apparel prices increased 0.6% (6.8% y/y). New vehicle prices edged up 0.2% (12.5% y/y).

The Consumer Price Index data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database with additional detail in **CPIDATA**. The Action Economics survey figure is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Twelve-month gain is strongest since January 1982.
- Energy prices soar and food prices remain strong.
- Services prices strengthen, but core goods prices fall.

U.S. Consumer Price Gain Accelerates in March

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The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) fell 2.2% during the four weeks ended April 8 but remained 17.2% higher over the last year.

**Crude oil & benzene** prices fell 6.7% in the last four weeks but remained up by roughly one-quarter y/y. Crude oil costs alone fell 13.6% in four weeks yet were up by two-thirds y/y. The cost of crude weakened to $99.92 per barrel. The price of the petro-chemical benzene fell 7.7% during the last four weeks but was 12.8% higher y/y. Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices declined 1.5% yet gained 14.7% in the last year.

Prices in the **metals** group fell 1.8% in the last four weeks, up 38.5% during the last year. Aluminum prices led the decline and were off 6.9% in four weeks. They, nevertheless, have risen by roughly one half y/y. Steel scrap prices fell 5.0% (+39.0% y/y) but zinc prices improved 6.9% in the last four weeks, up 55.0% y/y. Copper scrap prices edged 0.1% higher in the last four weeks and by 16.0% y/y.

In the **miscellaneous** group, prices declined by 4.1% during the last four weeks (+2.2% y/y). Framing lumber prices weakened by one-quarter in four weeks and by 17.1% y/y. Prices stood at the lowest level since early-December. This decline was countered by a 6.9% increase (11.6% y/y) in natural rubber prices.

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Prices in the **textile** group also moved 2.4% higher (11.6% y/y) during the last four weeks, led by cotton prices which increased 15.4%, up roughly three-quarters y/y. The cost of burlap, used for sacks, bags and gardening, improved 0.9% in the last four weeks and rose by 18.8% y/y.

Industrial commodity prices should remain firm. The National Association for Business Economics expects a 4.1% rise in industrial output in 2022 and a 2.6% increase in 2023.

The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's **DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON** and **CMDTY** databases.

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- Recent price declines are broad-based.
- The cost of crude oil falls sharply.
- Lumber prices collapse.

FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Weaken

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Finding an affordable home is becoming increasingly difficult. The National Association of Realtors' Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index fell 5.4% to 135.4 in February and has fallen 26.3% since its recent peak in January 2021. The Housing Affordability Index equals 100 when median family income equals the amount required for an 80% mortgage on a median-priced existing single-family home.

In February, a 2.0% rise (15.5% y/y) in the median sales price of a home to $363,800 was accompanied by a rise in mortgage rates to 3.83%, up from 2.86% twelve months earlier. As a result, the monthly mortgage payment rose 6.1% m/m to a record $1,361 (30.4% y/y) from $1,283 in January.

Median family income in February rose 0.4% (3.6% y/y) to $88,424 from $88,114 in January. Consequently, the standard mortgage payment as a percent of income rose to 18.5%, the highest level since August 2008. These figures are up from a recent low of 13.6% in January of 2021.

Data on Housing Affordability can be found in Haver's **REALTOR** database. Median home sale prices are also located in **USECON**. Higher frequency interest rate data can be found in **SURVEYW**, **WEEKLY**, and **DAILY**.

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- Higher prices & mortgage rates continue to drive home affordability lower.
- Principal & interest payments surge.
- Payment as a percent of income increases one percentage point m/m.

U.S. Housing Affordability Falls Again in February

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Wholesale inventories strengthened 2.5% (19.9% y/y) during February compared to a 2.1% rise in the advance report issued on March 28. Inventories rose 1.2% in January, revised from 0.8%. December inventories rose 2.5%, revised from 2.6%. The Informa Global Markets Survey expected a 2.1% February gain.

Durable goods inventories increased 1.9% in February (21.3% y/y) after rising 1.1% in January. Furniture & home furnishings inventories led the gain and jumped 3.6% (41.4% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories rose 2.5% (28.9% y/y) while professional equipment inventories surged 2.0% (15.9% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts inventories rose 1.4% (10.9% y/y) and machinery inventories gained 0.6% (7.2%y/y). In the nondurable sector, inventories rose 3.3% (17.9% y/y) after strengthening 1.3% in January. Apparel inventories jumped 10.1% (27.0% y/y). A 5.1% increase (24.2% y/y) in inventories of petroleum & petroleum products followed while chemicals inventories rose 3.4% (22.7%). Paper & paper product inventories edged 0.1% higher (9.7% y/y).

Wholesale sales increased 1.7% in February (25.5% y/y) after strengthening 5.0% in January, revised from 4.0%. A 1.5% rise was anticipated in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Durable goods sales eased 0.3% (+21.8% y/y) after strong gains in each of the prior four months. Home furnishings sales rose 4.5% (20.1% y/y) while machinery sales increased 3.3% (25.5% y/y). Lumber sales increased 2.5% (40.8% y/y) and metals sales rose 0.8% (52.8% y/y). To the downside, electrical equipment sales fell 3.7% (+22.6% y/y) while purchases of motor vehicles also declined 3.7% (+9.9% y/y). Sales of nondurable goods gained 3.5% (29.0% y/y) in February following a 3.8% improvement in January. Sales of petroleum products rose 7.3% (59.8% y/y) with higher prices. Grocery sales strengthened 4.2% (22.4% y/y). Sales of paper product rose 0.8% (23.7% y/y) and chemical purchases improved 0.4% (32.6% y/y). Apparel sales eased 0.8% (+23.5% y/y).

The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.21 after plunging to 1.20 in January, its lowest level in six months. The durable goods I/S ratio rose to 1.55. The nondurable I/S ratio held steady at 0.91.

The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the **MMSAMER** database. Expectations for sales are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Inventory gain remains broad-based.
- Sales strength led by petroleum.
- I/S ratio edges higher.

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Significantly Outpace Sales in February

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Consumer credit outstanding increased by a record $41.8 billion (6.5% y/y) during February after rising $8.9 billion in January, revised from $6.8 billion. A $16.8 billion February rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding-to-disposable personal income edged higher m/m to 24.4% in February, the highest level since March 2020.

Revolving consumer credit balances rose $18.0 billion (9.7% y/y) in February after growing $3.5 billion in January. Credit provided by depository institutions (90% of the total and mostly credit card debt) rose an increased 11.3% y/y. Credit union borrowing (6% of the total) rose 5.4% y/y. Nonfinancial business loans (2% of the total) held steady y/y. The value of finance company loans (1% of loans) declined 16.7% y/y.

Matching the record set last May, nonrevolving credit usage grew $23.8 billion (5.6% y/y) in February following a $5.4 billion January increase. Federal government borrowing, which issues 42% of nonrevolving credit, grew a lessened 3.3% y/y. Depository institution loans (26% of credit) grew an accelerated 9.5% y/y. Finance company borrowing (17% of loans) grew a fairly steady 5.6% y/y. Credit union loans (14% of the total) rose 6.5% y/y, the quickest since 2019.

During the fourth quarter of 2021, student loan balances rose a lessened 2.6% y/y. Growth in motor vehicle loans rose an accelerated 7.4% y/y, the fastest growth since Q3 2015.

These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of the Census and Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

The minutes to the latest **FOMC meeting** can be found [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220316a1.pdf).

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- Revolving credit balances surge.
- Nonrevolving credit usage also strengthens.

U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Strengthens in February

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance of 166,000 in the week ended April 2 (-74.3% y/y) compared to 171,000 in the prior week, revised from 202,000. It equaled the lowest level of initial claims since November 1968. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 200,000 claims for the latest week. The 4-week moving average of initial claims fell to 170,000 from 178,000 in the prior week. The figures were revised from 2017 to 2021.

In the week ended March 26, continued weeks claimed for unemployment insurance of 1.523 million compared to 1.506 million in the prior week, revised from 1.307 million. These figures were the lowest since December 1969.

The insured unemployment rate held steady at the record low of 1.1%. The prior week's figure was revised from 0.9%.

In the week ended March 12, the number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs fell to 1.723 million from 1.776 million in the prior week. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs. Continued claims for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer reported as both programs have expired.

The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 19 were in California (2.40%), New Jersey (2.37%), Alaska (2.16%), Minnesota (2.11%), Rhode Island (2.07%), and Massachusetts (1.98%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.18%), Alabama (0.20%), North Carolina (0.32%), Tennessee (0.38%), Florida (0.39%) and Texas (0.83%).

Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's **WEEKLY** database, and they are summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW**. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey and is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Decline is to lowest level since November 1968.
- Continued weeks claimed edge higher.
- Insured unemployment rate holds at record low. 

U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Fall

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