Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• 

  USA| Sep 27 2022

  U.S. New Home Sales Rebound in August

  • Home sales stand at highest level since March.
  • Sales rise throughout country.
  • Median sales price declines sharply.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Sep 27 2022

  U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall in August

  • Aircraft orders lead decline; increases elsewhere are broad-based.
  • Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft rise further.
  • Order backlogs & inventories increase again.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Sep 26 2022

  Texas Manufacturing Activity Index Is Negative Again

  • Company outlook remains bleak.
  • Employment & wages weaken.
  • Pricing power continues to decline.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Sep 26 2022

  Chicago Fed National Activity Index Weakens in August

  • Three of four components ease.
  • Three-month average is barely positive.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Sep 22 2022

  U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Continue to Decline in August

  • Fall is seventh in eight months, raising recession risk.
  • Coincident indicators edge higher.
  • Lagging indicators continue to increase.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Sep 22 2022

  U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise

  • Increase reverses half of prior week’s decline.
  • Continued weeks claimed fall slightly.
  • Insured unemployment rate holds near record low.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Sep 21 2022

  FOMC Increases Funds Rate, Raises Inflation Outlook & Lowers GDP Projections

  At today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed announced a 75 basis point increase in the target for the Federal funds rate to 3.00% - 3.25%. It was the third consecutive increase of that magnitude and places the rate at the highest level since January 2008. The Fed "... anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate." The move was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

  The statement accompanying today's action read, "Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low."

  "Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures."

  In addition, the Fed will continue reducing its portfolio of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities.

  Today's action was endorsed by all members of the FOMC.

  The statement issued following today's meeting can be found here.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Sep 20 2022

  U.S. Housing Starts Rebound in August

  • Surprising increase reflects a jump in multi-family units.
  • Regional changes are mixed.
  • Building permits fall sharply.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Sep 20 2022

  U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed

  • Gasoline prices fall further.
  • Crude oil prices rebound.
  • Natural gas prices improve slightly.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Sep 19 2022

  U.S. Home Builder Index Falls in September

  • Builder confidence continues to decline from December peak.
  • Present & expected sales plus traffic fall further.
  • Weakness is most pronounced in the West.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Sep 16 2022

  U.S. Business Inventories Build as Sales Decline in July

  • Inventories increase across business sectors.
  • Sales decline is broad-based.
  • Inventory-to-sales ratio is highest in nearly two years.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• 

  USA| Sep 14 2022

  U.S. Producer Prices Dip in August; Core Prices Move Higher

  • Energy prices decline again; food prices hold steady.
  • Price increases of core goods remain moderate.
  • Services prices strengthen.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief