U.S. Retail Sales Hold Steady in September; August Sales Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Auto & gasoline sales weaken.
- Sales are mixed amongst most other categories.
Total retail sales were unchanged (+8.2% y/y) during September after rising 0.4% in August, revised from 0.3%. A 0.2% increase was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles & parts, retail sales edged 0.1% higher (8.9% y/y) following a 0.1% August easing, revised from -0.3%. No change had been expected in September. Retail sales excluding restaurants eased 0.1% (7.8% y/y) after rising 0.2% in August.
Sales of motor vehicles & parts fell 0.4% in September (+5.6% y/y) after rising 2.8% in August. This compares to a 2.2% gain (10.8% y/y) in unit sales of motor vehicles. Gasoline service station sales declined 1.4% (+20.6% y/y) as prices fell. That followed a 5.2% August decline. Sales at building materials & garden equipment stores fell 0.4% (9.7% y/y) after two months of strong increase.
In the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials & food services, sales improved 0.4% last month (6.6% y/y) after rising 0.2%, revised from unchanged. These sales are used in the construction of personal consumption expenditures in NIPA accounts.
Sales gains were mixed amongst other categories of retail sales. General merchandise store sales gained 0.7% last month (3.7% y/y) following a 0.4% August rise. Nonstore retail sales increased 0.5% (11.6% y/y) after falling 0.3% in August. Apparel & accessory store sales also increased 0.5% (121.0% y/y) after rising 0.9%. General merchandise store sales improved 0.7% (3.7% y/y) after a 0.4% August gain. Within that category, department store sales rose 1.3% during September (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.0% in the prior month.
Offsetting these increases, electronics & appliance store sales weakened 0.8% in September (-8.6% y/y), the fifth consecutive monthly decline. Sporting goods & hobby shop store sales fell 0.7% (3.7% y/y) after rising 0.6% in August. Furniture & home furnishing store sales declined 0.7% last month (+0.9% y/y) after rising 0.9% in August.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & beverage store sales rose 0.4% (6.4% y/y) in September after a 0.3% August gain. Health & personal care store sales increased 0.5% (4.3% y/y) following a 0.4% rise during August.
Dining out has been one of the strongest retail activities this year. Restaurant & drinking place sales rose 0.5% (11.4% y/y) in September, following a 1.8% August increase.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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