Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Sep 10 2007

  Since When has Employment been a Leading Indicator?

  The decline in U.S. payrolls during August has raised the question of whether a recession in the overall economy is to come. In the past, sustained employment declines have been coincident with recession's onset, and sometimes they [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 06 2007

  U.S. Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Fell Sharply

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply last week and more than reversed the prior week's large increase. Claims for the week ending 8/30 fell 19,000 to 318,000. Consensus expectations were for 328,000 claims. The prior [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 06 2007

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Unchanged

  The non-manufacturing sector Business Activity Index for August was unchanged from its July level of 55.8, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 54.5. Since the series' [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 05 2007

  ADP Report: Private Payroll Growth Smallest Since 2003

  The ADP Nat'l Employment Report, reported by the payroll processor, found that private nonfarm payrolls rose just 38,000 last month. The increase was the smallest since 2003.

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 05 2007

  U.S. Vehicle Sales Better than Bleak Newspaper Headlines

  U.S. sales of light vehicles during August improved 6.5% versus a weak performance in July. The increase followed two months of sharp m/m decline and resulted in a small 0.7% increase in sales versus last August, according to the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 04 2007

  U.S. Construction Spending Declined Again

  The value of construction put in place fell 0.4% after a 0.1% increase in July. Consensus expectations had been for no change. Year-to-year, the value of total construction has been up 2.0%, but all of the increase has been due to a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Sep 04 2007

  ISM Index Down Slightly; As Expected

  The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported that the Composite Index of activity in the manufacturing sector fell slightly last month to 52.9 from 53.8 during July. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 53.0. During [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 28 2007

  U.S. Weekly Chain Store Sales Up, Gasoline Prices Down

  The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey reported that chain store sales increased 0.3% last week and made up the 0.3% decline during the week prior. Chain store sales this month are 0.2% ahead of the July [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 28 2007

  Consumer Confidence Fell

  Consumer confidence in August fell according to the Conference Board Survey by 6.2%. The decline retraced all of the July increase of 6.3%. Confidence fell to the lowest level in a year. The present conditions reading similarly fell a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 27 2007

  U.S. Existing Home Sales Slipped Less Than Expected Last Month

  Sales of existing homes fell again in July to 5.750M units. Though the decline of 0.2% from a revised 5.76M in June was slight, it still amounted to the lowest level since 2002 and was down 9.0% from the year earlier level. Sales were [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 24 2007

  New Home Sales and Prices Up

  July new home sales increased 2.8% from June to 870,000 following a 4.0% drop during June which was less than reported initially. The sales increase during July owed mostly to a 22.4% (-19.6% y/y) gain in sales in the West. Sales also [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 24 2007

  U.S. Durable Goods Orders Better Due To Transportation

  New orders for durable goods during July gained an impressive 5.9% and the gain during the prior month was revised up slightly to 1.9%. Consensus expectations had been for a 2.0% rise in orders for last month. During the last ten [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief