Pricing pressures at the wholesale level again diminished last month. A 0.5% decline in the June PPI was the third in a row that owed to consecutive declines in food & energy prices. The drop exceeded Consensus expectations for a 0.1% [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Jul 15 2010U.S. Producer Prices Decline For Third Month, Again With Lower Food & Energy Costs
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 14 2010
U.S. Retail Spending Declines Unexpectedly
Consumers began the summer season on a cautious note. Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.5% last month. To emphasize the notion of lost momentum, May's decline was revised to 1.1% from 1.2% but the gain in April sales was halved to [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 14 2010
U.S. Business Inventories Barely Increase
There has been a turn in inventory management, but it's been moderate. Business inventories ticked up 0.1% in May for the seventh increase in the last eight months. That was enough to lift inventories by a moderate 2.5% during the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 14 2010
U.S. Import Prices Decline Across-the Board
The upward pressure on import prices continues to diminish. U.S. import prices in June fell 1.3%, their second consecutive monthly decline and the largest since early-last year. Moreover, the y/y gain fell to its least since November. The decline exceeded Consensus expectations for a 0.3% drop. Petroleum prices fell 4.4% and repeated their May decline while excluding petroleum import prices fell by 0.5% and reversed the May increase.
Due to the recent declines, energy prices are roughly unchanged from December after last year's 78.6% increase from December-to-December. Last week, Brent crude oil prices rose to $77.20 per barrel versus $74.80 in June. Non-oil import prices reversed all of the May increase with a 0.5% decline, perhaps reflecting some softening in the economy's growth rate. As a result, prices are up just 0.9% since year-end. From December-to-December price fell 0.2% in 2009. (During the last ten years, there has been a negative 81% correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non-oil import prices.)
Food & beverage prices reversed their May increase with a 1.7% decline (+6.2 y/y). That compares to a 2.8% decline during 2009. Prices for nonauto consumer goods slipped 0.4% (-0.1% y/y) after a 0.3% decline last year. Appliance prices strengthened at a 2.7% rate after last year's modest increase. Furniture prices have fallen 4.5% while apparel prices ticked up at a 0.4% rate. Imported auto prices fell at a 1.7% rate YTD after a 0.1% dip last year. Capital goods slipped 1.3% YTD and excluding computers prices slipped 0.7% YTD following a 0.7% gain last year.
Total export prices slipped 0.2% increase last month after a 0.6% May gain. The decline reflected a 0.2% dip (5.9% YTD) in non-agricultural export prices and a 0.1% slip in agricultural goods prices (+0.2% YTD).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database.
Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) June May April June Y/Y 2009 2008 2007 Import - All Commodities -1.3 -0.5 1.1 4.5 -11.5 11.5 4.2 Petroleum -4.4 -4.2 3.6 11.7 -35.9 37.7 11.6 Nonpetroleum -0.5 0.5 0.5 3.1 -4.1 5.3 2.7 Export - All Commodities -0.2 0.6 1.1 4.3 -4.6 6.0 4.9 by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 14 2010
U.S. Retail Spending Declines Unexpectedly
Consumers began the summer season on a cautious note. Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.5% last month. To emphasize the notion of lost momentum, May's decline was revised to 1.1% from 1.2% but the gain in April sales was halved to [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 14 2010
U.S. Retail Spending Declines Unexpectedly
Consumers began the summer season on a cautious note. Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.5% last month. To emphasize the notion of lost momentum, May's decline was revised to 1.1% from 1.2% but the gain in April sales was halved to [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 14 2010
U.S. Retail Spending Declines Unexpectedly
Consumers began the summer season on a cautious note. Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.5% last month. To emphasize the notion of lost momentum, May's decline was revised to 1.1% from 1.2% but the gain in April sales was halved to 0.3%.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 14 2010
U.S. Retail Spending Declines Unexpectedly
align="left" /> Consumers began the summer season on a cautious note. Retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.5% last month. To emphasize the notion of lost momentum, May's decline was revised to 1.1% from 1.2% but the gain in April sales [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 13 2010
U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens Slightly Month over Month and Still Is Sharply Deeper Than Last Year
A stronger U.S. economy continued its effect of deepening the U.S. foreign trade deficit during May. The deficit of $42.3B followed an unrevised April figure of $40.3B. The latest figure was the deepest since December 2008 and [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that labor market conditions remained improved. The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated that the job openings rate during May slipped to 2.4% from 2.5% during April. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 13 2010
U.S. Small Business Grow More Wary
Small business optimism fell last month after two months of improvement. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported their June small business optimism index declined m/m to 89.0 from the recent high of 92.2. The [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jul 13 2010
U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens Slightly Month over Month and Still Is Sharply Deeper Than Last Year
A stronger U.S. economy continued its effect of deepening the U.S. foreign trade deficit during May. The deficit of $42.3B followed an unrevised April figure of $40.3B. The latest figure was the deepest since December 2008 and [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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