Global| Jul 14 2010U.S. Business Inventories Barely Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
There has been a turn in inventory management, but it's been moderate. Business inventories ticked up 0.1% in May for the seventh increase in the last eight months. That was enough to lift inventories by a moderate 2.5% during the [...]
There has been a turn in inventory management, but it's been moderate. Business inventories ticked up 0.1% in May for the seventh increase in the last eight months. That was enough to lift inventories by a moderate 2.5% during the period after last year's 9.8% decline. Nevertheless, the increases have not kept up with the improvement in sales and the I/S ratio remained near its historic low at 1.24.
Retail inventories have started to rise and the 0.3% May gain was the sixth modest increase following sharp declines during 2008 & 2009. Nevertheless, the level of inventories remained 13.3% below the 2008 peak. Accumulation this year owes to modest gains in the auto sector (+2.4% YTD. Less autos, accumulation began only in March and it's been modest. Year-to-date inventories have risen 1.5% after last year's 4.9% decline and remain 6.5% below the 2008 peak. Recent accumulation has been notable amongst general merchandise and furniture stores while the decline in apparel store inventories abated
The business sales and inventory data are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Business Inventories (%) | May | April | March | May Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 | -1.5 | -9.8 | 0.8 | 4.0 |
| Retail | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.9 | -1.8 | -10.4 | -3.3 | 2.5 |
| Retail excl. Auto | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | -0.3 | -4.9 | -1.9 | 2.7 |
| Wholesale | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.7 | -2.1 | -10.5 | 3.7 | 6.4 |
| Manufacturing | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.9 | -8.8 | -0.8 | 7.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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