Since late-August, the industrial commodity price index, from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER), has shown outsized weakness. The decline amounts to 4.1% (-3.1% y/y) and has been widespread [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Oct 06 2014FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Weaken Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 03 2014
U.S. Trade Deficit Declines as Imports Fall
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is carried in the AS1REPNA. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 03 2014
U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Retraces Earlier Gain
The pace of nonmanufacturing activity backpedaled in September. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) composite nonmanufacturing index declined to 58.6 from 59.6 in August and 58.7 in July. This is a diffusion index where a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 03 2014
U.S. Payroll Employment Growth Recovers; Jobless Rate Continues Down
Nonfarm payroll employment posted a 248,000 increase during September (1.9% y/y) following upwardly revised gains of 180,000 and 243,000 during the prior two months. The rise exceeded expectations for a 215,000 increase in the Action [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 03 2014
U.S. Payroll Employment Growth Recovers; Jobless Rate Continues Down
Nonfarm payroll employment posted a 248,000 increase during September (1.9% y/y) following upwardly revised increases of 180,000 and 243,000 during the prior two months. The rise exceeded expectations for a 215,000 increase in the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 02 2014
U.S. Factory Sector Orders and Shipments Decline
New orders to all manufacturers fell 10.1% (+4.1% y/y) during August following the 10.5% July jump. A 9.3% decline was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. An 18.4% (+8.6% y/y) decline in durable goods orders led the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 02 2014
Challenger Job Cut Announcements Move Lower; Hiring Surges
The outplacement firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that job cut announcements declined to 30,477 (-24.4% y/y) during September, the lowest level since June 2007. Layoffs declined m/m in the electronics, pharmaceutical, [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 02 2014
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Decline; Continuing Claims Reach 2007 Low
The labor market continues to improve. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 287,000 (-9.7% y/y) in the week ended September 27 from 295,000 during the prior week, revised from 293,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 01 2014
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Give Back the August Surge
According to the Autodata Corporation, September sales of light vehicles fell back to 16.43 million units (SAAR) from 17.53 million in August. The decline retraced most of the August jump to the 2006 high, and left unit sales up 5.8% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 01 2014
U.S. Construction Spending Eases
The value of construction put-in-place edged 0.8% lower (+5.0% y/y) during August following a 1.2% July increase. During the last five months, the value of construction spending has been little changed. The latest increase [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 01 2014
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Retraces Earlier Increase
The Institute for Supply Management's composite index of manufacturing sector activity fell back to 56.6 in September after jumping to 59.0 in August. Despite the decline, the Q3'14 average of 57.6 was the highest since Q1'11. The [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 01 2014
U.S. ADP Employment Increase Remains Moderate M/M; Factory Hiring Jumps
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that hiring remained in the moderate growth range of the last six months. Private sector employment improved last month to 213,000 (2.2% y/y) following a 202,000 August increase, [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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