Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Oct 15 2014

  U.S. Producer Prices Unexpectedly Slip; Core Index Unchanged

  The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index edged 0.1% lower (+1.6% y/y) during September following an unrevised zero change in August. A 0.1% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 15 2014

  Empire State Factory Sector Index Backpedals

  The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions declined to 6.17 during October, reversing all of this year's gains. It fell short of expectations for 20.9 in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 15 2014

  U.S. Retail Sales Decline

  Retail and food service sales fell 0.3% during September (+4.3% y/y) following an unrevised 0.6% August gain. A 0.1% slip had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales were led lower by a 0.8% drop (+9.5% y/y) in [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 14 2014

  U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Reach New Lows

  Petroleum prices continue to move lower. The cost of a gallon of regular gasoline fell sharply last week to $3.21 (-4.4% y/y) from $3.30, its least expensive since November 2013. Additional weakness seemed possible as the N.Y. spot [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 14 2014

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Retreats; Pricing Power Deteriorates Further

  The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index for September fell to 95.3 following an unrevised improvement to 96.1 during August. Despite the decline, the latest level remained near [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 10 2014

  U.S. Import Prices Decline

  Import prices fell 0.5% (-0.9% y/y) during September, after a 0.6% August drop, earlier reported as -0.9%. The decline matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 2.0% fall (-6.6% y/y) in petroleum prices led the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 09 2014

  U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Broad-Based Strength

  Inventories in the wholesale sector increased 0.7% (7.9% y/y) during August, the strongest rise since April. Quicker inventory building stretched across industry sectors. Durable goods inventories grew 0.8% (8.5% y/y) paced by a 4.5% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 09 2014

  U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Remain Near Eight-Year Low

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance were roughly stable during the week ended October 4 at 287,000 (-20.7% y/y). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a rebound to 295,000 claims in the latest week. The four-week moving [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 08 2014

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Improve With Lower Interest Rates

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total Mortgage Market Volume Index increased 3.8% last week (-23.1% y/y) following two week's of decline. Applications remained near the lowest level of the economic recovery. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 08 2014

  U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Moderates

  Consumer credit outstanding increased $13.5 billion during August following a $21.6 billion July gain, initially reported as $26.0 billion. Expectations were for a $20.5 billion increase, according to the Action Economics Forecast [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 07 2014

  U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Improves Sharply but Hires Rate Deteriorates

  Labor market conditions tightened this summer. The job openings rate during August improved m/m to 3.4%, the highest level since April 2001. July's rate was revised down to 3.2% from 3.3%. The job openings rate is the number of job [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Oct 07 2014

  U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Decline Sharply

  Petroleum prices remain under downward pressure. The cost of a gallon of regular gasoline fell sharply last week to $3.30 (-2.0% y/y), its least expensive since early-February. To account for seasonal patterns, Haver Analytics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief