The Federal Government posted a $483.4 billion budget deficit during all of FY 2014. It was the smallest deficit since 2008. For FY 2015, the Congressional Budget Office projects the budget deficit will total $469 billion then rise to [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Oct 16 2014U.S. Budget Deficit's Decline Continues
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 16 2014
U.S. Industrial Production Strength is Driven by Utilities
Industrial production jumped 1.0% during September (4.4% y/y) following a 0.2% August dip revised from -0.1%. The gain was driven by a 3.9% spike (0.9% y/y) in utility output which followed a 1.2% rise. Factory production rose 0.5% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 16 2014
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Unexpectedly Reach New Low
Initial unemployment insurance claims during the week ended October 11 fell to 264,000 (-25.6% y/y) from an unrevised 287,000 during the prior week. It was the lowest level of claims since April 2000. The Action Economics Forecast [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 15 2014
U.S. Producer Prices Unexpectedly Slip; Core Index Unchanged
The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index edged 0.1% lower (+1.6% y/y) during September following an unrevised zero change in August. A 0.1% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 15 2014
Empire State Factory Sector Index Backpedals
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that its Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions declined to 6.17 during October, reversing all of this year's gains. It fell short of expectations for 20.9 in the Action [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 15 2014
U.S. Retail Sales Decline
Retail and food service sales fell 0.3% during September (+4.3% y/y) following an unrevised 0.6% August gain. A 0.1% slip had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales were led lower by a 0.8% drop (+9.5% y/y) in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 14 2014
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Reach New Lows
Petroleum prices continue to move lower. The cost of a gallon of regular gasoline fell sharply last week to $3.21 (-4.4% y/y) from $3.30, its least expensive since November 2013. Additional weakness seemed possible as the N.Y. spot [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 14 2014
U.S. Small Business Optimism Retreats; Pricing Power Deteriorates Further
The National Federation of Independent Business reported that its Small Business Optimism Index for September fell to 95.3 following an unrevised improvement to 96.1 during August. Despite the decline, the latest level remained near [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 10 2014
U.S. Import Prices Decline
Import prices fell 0.5% (-0.9% y/y) during September, after a 0.6% August drop, earlier reported as -0.9%. The decline matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 2.0% fall (-6.6% y/y) in petroleum prices led the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 09 2014
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Broad-Based Strength
Inventories in the wholesale sector increased 0.7% (7.9% y/y) during August, the strongest rise since April. Quicker inventory building stretched across industry sectors. Durable goods inventories grew 0.8% (8.5% y/y) paced by a 4.5% [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 09 2014
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Remain Near Eight-Year Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were roughly stable during the week ended October 4 at 287,000 (-20.7% y/y). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a rebound to 295,000 claims in the latest week. The four-week moving [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Oct 08 2014
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Improve With Lower Interest Rates
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total Mortgage Market Volume Index increased 3.8% last week (-23.1% y/y) following two week's of decline. Applications remained near the lowest level of the economic recovery. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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