Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| May 16 2018

  U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Decline

  Total housing starts in April fell 3.7% (+10.5% y/y) to 1.287 million (SAAR) from 1.336 million during March, revised from 1.319 million. A level of 1.318 million starts had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 15 2018

  Empire State Manufacturing Index Improves

  The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 20.1 during May and made up most of its April decline. Expectations had been for 15.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These data, reported by the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 15 2018

  U.S. Home Builder Index Recovers

  The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo increased 2.9% (1.4% y/y) to 70 during May following an April decline to 68. The latest reading compared to expectations for 69 in the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 15 2018

  U.S. Retail Sales Rise Moderately

  Total retail sales increased 0.3% (4.7% y/y) during April following a 0.8% March gain, revised from 0.6%. The rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail sales improved [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 15 2018

  U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen

  Retail gasoline prices rose to $2.87 per gallon yesterday (21.3% y/y) and remained at the highest price level since November 2014. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in gasoline pump prices. The [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 14 2018

  FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Remain Strong

  The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 1.0% during the last four weeks and 9.2% during the last year. Industrial materials prices overall rose by [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 11 2018

  U.S. Import Prices Rebound; Export Prices Strengthen

  Import prices increased 0.3% during April (3.3% y/y) after declining 0.2% in March, revised from no change. A 0.5% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted. A 1.6% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 10 2018

  U.S. Government Budget Surplus Increases Y/Y

  The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a record $214.3 billion budget surplus during April 2018. That compared to a $182.4 billion surplus during April 2017. The higher surplus was driven, in part, by [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 10 2018

  U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Remain at 50-Year Low

  Initial unemployment insurance claims were steady w/w at 211,000 (-11.6% y/y) in the week ending May 5. Claims were expected to rise to 219,000 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average declined to 216,000, [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 10 2018

  U.S. CPI Rebounds; Core Price Increase Moderates

  Consumer prices increased 0.2% (2.5% y/y) during April following a 0.1% March slip. A 0.3% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy improved 0.1% (2.1% y/y) after two months [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 09 2018

  U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales Growth Slows

  Wholesale trade inventories increased 0.3% (5.8 y/y) during March following a 0.9% February gain, revised from 1.0%. The March rise matched the increase reported in the advance report released on April 26 and also was below market [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| May 09 2018

  U.S. Producer Prices Rise Minimally

  The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology edged 0.1% higher (2.6% y/y) during April following an unrevised 0.3% rise in March. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief