Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Mar 09 2018

  U.S. Payroll Increase Strengthens; Wage Growth Eases

  The job market continues to improve. Nonfarm payrolls rose 313,000 (1.6% y/y) during February, the strongest monthly increase since July 2016. It followed a 239,000 January gain and a 175,000 December rise. Together these two figures [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 08 2018

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications and Interest Rates Rise

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Volume Index gained 0.3% last week (-5.3% y/y) following a 2.7% increase during the prior week. Purchase loan applications slipped 0.5% (+1.4% y/y) [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 08 2018

  U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise from 48-Year Low

  Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 231,000 (-7.2% y/y) during the week ended March 3. Claims during the prior week were unrevised at 210,000, the lowest level since December 1969. Expectations in the Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 07 2018

  U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Slackens

  Consumer credit outstanding increased $13.89 billion (5.3% y/y) during January following a $19.21 billion December rise, revised from $18.44 billion. It was the weakest monthly increase since September. An $18.0 billion rise had been [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 07 2018

  U.S. Productivity Steadies; Unit Labor Costs Rise

  Output per hour in the nonfarm business sector remained stable (revised from -0.1%) during Q4'17 following a 2.6% Q3 rise. A 0.1% slip had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Output rose at a 3.2% rate (3.2% y/y) [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 07 2018

  U.S. ADP Private Payroll Growth Remains Solid

  The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 235,000 during February following a 244,000 January gain, revised from 234,000. A 200,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 06 2018

  U.S. Factory Orders Reverse Course

  Manufacturers' orders declined 1.4% (+6.6% y/y) during January following a 1.8% December rise, revised from 1.7% reported initially. Total factory orders excluding transportation improved 0.4% (6.5% y/y), the weakest rise since June. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 06 2018

  U.S. Energy Prices Remain Firm

  Retail gasoline prices of $2.56 per gallon last week (9.4% y/y) were little-changed versus the prior two weeks, up from the early-2016 lows near $1.76 per gallon. Prices have moved roughly sideways since September. Haver Analytics [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 05 2018

  U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Eases

  Business activity in the service sector scaled back last month, but remained strong. The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) eased to 59.5 during February from an [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 02 2018

  FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Index Touches New High

  The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 1.4% during the last four weeks (6.8% y/y) as factory sector production around the world continued to improve. The [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 01 2018

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Ease Further

  Total sales of light vehicles during February slipped 0.5% (-2.2% y/y) to 17.08 million units (SAAR), following a 3.9% January fall to 17.16 million units, according to the Autodata Corporation. Last month's sales compared to an 18.57 [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 01 2018

  ISM Factory Sector Index Strengthens to 2004 High

  The ISM manufacturing sector composite index jumped to 60.8 during February from 59.1 in January. It was the highest level since May 2004. A level of 58.6 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief