Global| May 10 2018U.S. Government Budget Surplus Increases Y/Y
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a record $214.3 billion budget surplus during April 2018. That compared to a $182.4 billion surplus during April 2017. The higher surplus was driven, in part, by [...]
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a record $214.3 billion budget surplus during April 2018. That compared to a $182.4 billion surplus during April 2017. The higher surplus was driven, in part, by calendar differences. A surplus of $190.5 billion had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the first seven months of fiscal year 2018, the government's budget deficit totaled $385.4 billion, up 11.9% versus $344.4 billion in the first seven months of FY'17.
Net revenues rose 4.1% y/y so far in FY'18 after a 1.5% increase during all of last fiscal year. Individual income taxes increased 11.2% y/y following a 2.7% rise during all of last year. The gain in social insurance receipts declined to 2.9% y/y from 4.2% last year, and excise taxes improved 15.6% y/y following last year's 11.8% shortfall. The rate of decline in corporate income taxes quickened to -24.5% y/y with the corporate income tax cut, after taxes fell 0.8% during all of last fiscal year.
Government spending increased 5.3% y/y so far in FY'18 compared to 3.3% growth during all of FY'17. National defense spending rose 4.7% y/y after slight increases during the last two fiscal years. Health insurance spending grew 3.0% y/y, down from last year's 4.1% rise, while Medicare outlays increased an accelerated 2.4% y/y. With the lower unemployment rate, income security payments slipped 0.4% y/y after their 2.1% FY'17 decline. Social Security payments rose an accelerated 4.2% y/y. Interest payments gained 16.3% y/y after 9.2% growth last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | Apr 2018 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $214.3 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 | $-483.4 | $-680.2 |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% |
| % of Total | |||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2018, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 11.2 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 9 | -24.5 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 15.6 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year 2017 YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 | -2.4 |
| National Defense | 15 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 |
| Health | 15 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 |
| Medicare | 15 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 |
| Income Security | 13 | -0.4 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 4 | 6.3 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 |
| Interest | 7 | 16.3 | 9.2 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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