Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Dec 20 2018

  U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase

  The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators improved 0.2% (5.2% y/y) during November following a 0.3% October decline, revised from +0.1%. No change in the index level had been expected in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 20 2018

  Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Declines; Pricing Pressure Holds Steady

  The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index declined to 9.4 during December from 12.9 in November. The Action Economics Forecast Survey median estimate was 15.7. During all of [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 20 2018

  U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise

  Initial unemployment insurance applications increased to 214,000 (-12.4% y/y) during the week ended December 15 from an unrevised 206,000 during the prior week. Initial claims remained near the lowest level since 1969. The Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 19 2018

  FOMC Hikes Interest Rates

  The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously at today's meeting to increase the federal funds rate target by 25 basis points to a range between 2.25% and 2.50%. It was the ninth increase since December 2015. The action was [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 19 2018

  U.S. Existing Home Sales Increase

  The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes in November rose 1.9% to 5.320 million units (SAAR). The 7.0% y/y decline was, however, the largest since May 2011. The latest increase followed an unrevised [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 19 2018

  U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens

  The U.S. current account deficit widened to $124.8 billion during Q3'18 from $101.2 billion in Q2. It was the largest quarterly deficit since Q4'08 and compared to $123.4 billion expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. As a [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 18 2018

  U.S. Energy Product Prices Ease

  Gasoline prices fell to an average $2.37 per gallon (-3.3% y/y) from $2.42 last week. Prices have fallen from an average high of $2.90 early last month to currently the lowest level since August 2017. Haver Analytics constructs [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 18 2018

  U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Recover

  Total housing starts rose 3.2% (-3.6% y/y) during November to 1.256 million (AR) from 1.217 million in October, revised from 1.228 million. The level exceeded expectations for 1.230 million starts in the Action Economics Forecast [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 17 2018

  U.S. Home Builder Index Weakens Considerably

  The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo declined to 56 during December, its lowest level since May 2015. The figure compared to the expansion high of 74 in December of last year. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 17 2018

  Empire State Manufacturing Sector Improvement Moderates

  The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions declined to 10.9 in December, the lowest level since May 2017. Nonetheless, for the year as a whole, the index stood at the highest level since 2006. The Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 14 2018

  U.S. Industrial Production Gains Weaken

  Industrial production rose 0.1% (4.1% y/y) during October following a 0.2% September improvement......... Capacity utilization eased to 78.4% Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Dec 14 2018

  U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Picks Up

  Total business inventories increased 0.6% (5.1% y/y) during October following two months of 0.5% gain. Total business sales rose a steady 0.3% (8.0% y/y). The inventory-to-sales ratio increased minimally to 1.35, but remained below [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief