The labor market remains strong. Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 202,000 (-9.2% y/y) during the week ended March 30 from 212,000 in the prior week, revised from 211,000. It was the lowest level of claims since the [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Apr 04 2019
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline to 1969 Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Apr 03 2019
U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Declines Sharply
The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) weakened to 56.1 in March, the lowest level since August 2017. The figure remained below the cycle peak of 60.8 reached in [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Apr 03 2019
U.S. ADP Private-Sector Payroll Increase Weakens
ADP indicated in its National Employment Report that private nonfarm payrolls increased 129,000 (2.0% y/y) during March after a 197,000 February gain, revised from 183,000. It was the weakest increase since September 2017. A 180,000 [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Apr 03 2019
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Recover
The Autodata Corporation reported that sales of light vehicles increased 5.3% (1.0% y/y) during March to 17.45 million units (SAAR). The increase recouped declines during the prior two months. Auto sales improved 3.4% (-6.7% y/y) to a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
U.S. retail gasoline prices increased this week to $2.69 per gallon (-0.3% y/y), up from the low of $2.24 early in January. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in gasoline pump prices. The [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Apr 02 2019
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline Led by Aircraft
New orders for durable goods fell 1.6% (+1.8% y/y) during February following a 0.1% January uptick, revised from 0.4%. A 1.0% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The decline was led by a 4.8% (-0.8% y/y) [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
The value of construction put-in-place increased 1.0% (1.1% y/y) during February following a 2.5% January increase, revised from 1.3%. A 0.1% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The value of public [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Apr 01 2019
ISM Manufacturing Index Improves, But Not by Much
The ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to 55.3 in March from 54.2 in February, but remained close to its weakest level since late-2016. The index remained below its expansion peak 60.8 last August. The Action Economics Forecast [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Apr 01 2019
U.S. Retail Sales Ease in Broad-Based Decline
Total retail sales fell 0.2% during February (+2.2% y/y) following a 0.7% January increase, revised from 0.2%. A 0.2% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Mar 29 2019
U.S. New Home Sales and Prices Improve
The housing market has been exhibiting strength recently. New home sales increased 4.9% (0.6% y/y) during February to 667,000 (SAAR) from 636,000 in January, revised from 607,000. December sales also were revised up. It was the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Mar 29 2019
U.S. Personal Spending Growth Is Negligible; Incomes Rise Modestly
Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.1% (3.7% y/y) during January following a 0.6% December decline, revised from -0.5%. The gain fell short of a 0.3% rise expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Commerce [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Global| Mar 28 2019
U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales declined 1.0% (-4.9% y/y) during February following a 4.3% gain, revised from 4.6%. Sales have declined 9.7% since the peak in April 2016. Sales were mixed [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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