ADP indicated in its National Employment Report that private nonfarm payrolls increased 213,000 during January (1.9% y/y) following a 263,000 December gain, revised from 271,000. Expectations had been for a 175,000 rise in the Action [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Jan 30 2019U.S. ADP Private-Sector Payroll Growth Is Surprisingly Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 29 2019
U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates, Led by Bleaker Expectations
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated 5.1% to 120.2 during January (-3.3% y/y) from 126.6 in December, revised from 128.1. It was the lowest confidence level since July 2017, down 12.8% from the peak just three [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 29 2019
U.S. Petroleum Prices Rise
Retail gasoline prices of $2.26 per gallon last week (-13.5% y/y) were improved by one penny versus the prior week and have risen slightly for three straight weeks. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 17 2019
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January, the highest level in three months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey median estimate was 10.0. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 17 2019
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January, the highest level in three months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey median estimate was 10.0. [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 17 2019
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance eased to 213,000 (-2.6% y/y) during the week ended January 12 from an unrevised 216,000 during the prior week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 223,000 claims. The four-week moving [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 16 2019
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue to Strengthen
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index increased 13.5% (1.4% y/y) during the week ended January 11 following a nearly one-quarter rise during the prior week. Applications to refinance a [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 16 2019
U.S. Home Builder Index Improves
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo rose to 58 during January after falling sharply during December to 56, its lowest level since May 2015. The figure compared to the expansion [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 16 2019
U.S. Import Prices Pulled Lower by Falling Oil Prices
Import prices fell 1.0% during December following a 1.9% November decline, revised from -1.6%. A 1.3% fall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of 2018, import prices fell 0.6% from December-to- [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 15 2019
Empire State Manufacturing Activity Weakens Sharply
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions declined to 3.9 in January, the lowest level since May 2017. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 12.0 for January. Data back through 2017 were [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 15 2019
U.S. Producer Prices Decline Led by Lower Energy Costs
The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology fell 0.2% during December following a 0.1% uptick in November. A 0.1% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. From December-to-December, [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Jan 15 2019
U.S. Prices of Energy Products Are Mixed
Gasoline prices averaged a fairly steady $2.25 per gallon this past week (-12.1% y/y) but remained below the $2.90 October peak. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the marked seasonal variation in prices. The seasonally- [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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