Global| Jun 20 2019U.S. Current Account Deficit Shrinks; Exports Rise and Imports Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to $130.4 billion during Q1'19 from $143.9 billion during Q4'18, revised from $134.4 billion. It compared to a $125.0 billion deficit expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. As a [...]
The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to $130.4 billion during Q1'19 from $143.9 billion during Q4'18, revised from $134.4 billion. It compared to a $125.0 billion deficit expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. As a percent of GDP, the deficit narrowed to 2.5% from 2.8% in Q4.
The smaller deficit last quarter was due to a lessened $216.5 billion shortfall on goods trade. Goods exports rose 0.6% (2.1 % y/y) and reversed the Q4 decline, while goods imports declined 2.1% (+0.7% y/y) following a 0.3% rise.
The surplus on services trade was little changed at $61.9 billion, but earlier surpluses were revised down. Services exports rose 1.1% (0.8% y/y) after holding steady in Q4. Telecommunications, computer & information services exports gained 0.6% (5.6% y/y) after two quarters of strong increase. Exports of intellectual property rights declined 0.7% (-6.4% y/y), the fourth straight quarter of decline. Travel exports improved 2.6% (0.5% y/y). Services imports gained 1.1% (5.3% y/y) after two quarters of stronger increase. Charges for intellectual property rose 0.3% (2.1% y/y) and travel imports strengthened 1.8% (7.0% y/y). Telecommunications, computer & information services imports rose 1.8% (7.4% y/y).
The surplus on primary income rose modestly to $61.1 billion, down versus the record high of $66.4 billion reached one year earlier. The deficit on secondary income widened to a record $36.9 billion.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| US Balance of Payments SA | Q1'19 | Q4'18 | Q3'18 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -130.4 | -143.9 | -125.7 | -491.0 | -439.6 | -428.3 |
| Deficit % of GDP | -2.5 | -2.8 | -2.4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -216.5 | -232.3 | -227.9 | -887.3 | -805.2 | -749.8 |
| Exports | 0.6% | -0.6% | -1.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | -3.6% |
| Imports | -2.1% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 8.6% | 6.9% | -2.9% |
| Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 61.9 | 61.2 | 64.5 | 259.7 | 255.1 | 246.8 |
| Exports | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 0.4% |
| Imports | 1.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 4.0% |
| Balance on Primary Income ($ Billion) | 61.1 | 60.1 | 64.7 | 254.0 | 225.8 | 198.7 |
| Balance on Secondary Income ($ Billion) | -36.9 | -32.8 | -27.0 | -117.3 | -115.3 | -124.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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