Global| Jun 25 2019U.S. New Home Sales Disappoint & Prices Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The market for new homes weakened last month. New home sales declined 7.8% (-3.7% y/y) during May to 626,000 after falling to 679,000 in April, revised from 673,000. Sales of 680,000 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
The market for new homes weakened last month. New home sales declined 7.8% (-3.7% y/y) during May to 626,000 after falling to 679,000 in April, revised from 673,000. Sales of 680,000 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the weakness, sales were 12.4% higher than the recent low in October. These sales transactions are recorded when sales contracts are signed or deposits are made.
The median price of a new home declined 8.1% last month (-2.7% y/y) to $308,000 and reversed the prior month's increase to $335,100. It was the lowest price since January and 10.3% below the record high of $343,400 logged during November 2017. The average price of a new home fell 2.4% (+1.2% y/y) to $377,200. Prior months' price figures were revised lower.
Sales were mixed m/m amongst the regions of the country. New home sales in the West fell by one-third m/m to 125,000 and added to the prior month's weakening. Declining by 17.6% to 28,000 were new home sales in the Northeast after an increase of nearly one-third during April. Rising by 4.9% to 389,000 were sales in the South as they fully reversed April's weakening. Sales in the Midwest rose 6.3% last month to 84,000 and made up half of the April decline.
The months' supply of homes on the market increased to 6.4 in May, but it remained well below the 7.4 months' supply reached in December. The median number of months a new home was on the market after its completion edged higher to 3.4 months, up from the low of 2.7 months in October.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 626 | 679 | 705 | -3.7 | 617 | 613 | 561 |
| Northeast | 28 | 34 | 26 | -15.2 | 32 | 38 | 34 |
| Midwest | 84 | 79 | 92 | 2.4 | 76 | 70 | 68 |
| South | 389 | 371 | 386 | 1.3 | 349 | 338 | 318 |
| West | 125 | 195 | 201 | -17.2 | 162 | 162 | 143 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 308,000 | 335,100 | 310,100 | -2.7 | 323,125 | 321,633 | 306,500 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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