Global| Jun 18 2019U.S. Housing Starts Decline but Permits Improve
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts eased 0.9% (-4.7% y/y) during May to 1.269 million (SAAR) from 1.281 million in April, revised from 1.235 million. Starts in March also were revised up to 1.199 million from 1.168 million. The Action Economics Forecast [...]
Housing starts eased 0.9% (-4.7% y/y) during May to 1.269 million (SAAR) from 1.281 million in April, revised from 1.235 million. Starts in March also were revised up to 1.199 million from 1.168 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.240 million starts during May.
Starts of single-family homes fell 6.4% (-12.5% y/y) to 820,000 last month from 876,000 in April, revised from 854,000. Multi-family housing starts rose 10.9% (13.7% y/y) to 449,000 units from 405,000, revised from 381,000. It was the highest level since January 2018.
The decline in housing starts last month reflected mixed performance across the country. In the Northeast, starts fell by nearly one-half (-32.4% y/y) to 73,000 units. The decline reversed most of April's sharp increase. Starts in the Midwest declined 8.0% to 160,000 and were one-third lower y/y. In the West, starts eased 2.4% (-0.6% y/y) to 332,000 after a 3.3% rise. Working 11.2% higher (+8.1% y/y) to 704,000 were housing starts in the South. It was the highest level since January and continued the expansion's upward trend
Building permits rose 0.3% last month (-0.5% y/y) to 1.294 million and repeated the prior month's gain. Permits to build a single-family home rose 3.7% (-3.3% y/y) to 815,000, but have remained in a downtrend since early last year. Multi-family building permits fell 5.0% (+4.6% y/y) to 479,000.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,269 | 1,281 | 1,199 | -4.7 | 1,250 | 1,209 | 1,178 |
| Single-Family | 820 | 876 | 833 | -12.5 | 873 | 852 | 786 |
| Multi-Family | 449 | 405 | 366 | 13.7 | 377 | 357 | 392 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 73 | 134 | 83 | -32.4 | 111 | 111 | 116 |
| Midwest | 160 | 174 | 132 | -33.1 | 171 | 180 | 185 |
| South | 704 | 633 | 655 | 8.1 | 631 | 603 | 585 |
| West | 332 | 340 | 329 | -0.6 | 336 | 314 | 292 |
| Building Permits | 1,294 | 1,290 | 1,288 | -0.5 | 1,313 | 1,286 | 1,206 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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