Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Aug 15 2019

  U.S. Retail Sales Post A Strong Increase; Nonauto Sales Surge Unexpectedly

  Consumer spending continues to exhibit strength. Total retail sales rose 0.7% (3.4% y/y) during July following a 0.3% June rise, revised from a 0.4%. May's increase was revised to 0.5% from 0.4%. A 0.3% July sales gain had been [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 14 2019

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Surge

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index strengthened 21.7% (81.2% y/y) during the week ending August 9 following a 5.3% increase in the prior week. Applications to refinance a loan [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 14 2019

  U.S. Import and Export Prices Rebound

  Import prices improved 0.2% (-1.8% y/y) during July following a 1.1% June decline, revised from -0.9%. A 0.1% easing had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted and do not [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 13 2019

  U.S. Small Business Optimism Improves

  The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index rose to 104.7 during July and recaptured most of its decline during June. The index improved 1.4% m/m, but was down 3.0% y/y. An [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 13 2019

  U.S. CPI Strengthens As Energy Prices Rise; Core Prices Increase Steadily

  Overall retail pricing power picked up last month. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% during July (1.8% y/y), up from 0.1% upticks in each of the prior two months. The rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 13 2019

  U.S. Energy Prices Continue to Weaken

  The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. declined to $2.62 (-7.7% y/y) last week from $2.69 per gallon in the prior week. The price was the lowest since the end of March and down from the early-May high of $2.90. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 12 2019

  U.S. Government Budget Deficit Continues to Deepen

  The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $119.7 billion budget deficit during July compared to a $76.9 billion shortfall posted one year earlier. A $117.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 12 2019

  FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Post Broad-Based Declines

  The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) declined 3.1% during the last four weeks. The price index was down 13.0% y/y and has fallen to the lowest level since [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 09 2019

  U.S. Producer Price Index Increases; Core Prices Ease

  The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.2% during July (1.7% y/y) following two months of 0.1% gain. The rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Producer prices excluding food & energy slipped 0.1% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 08 2019

  U.S. Wholesale Inventories Steady; Sales Decline

  Wholesale inventories were unchanged (7.6% y/y) during June following an unrevised 0.4% May increase. A 0.2% rise was expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey. Durable goods inventories increased 0.3% (10.1% y/y) in June after [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 08 2019

  U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall

  Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 209,000 (-3.5% y/y) during the week ended August 3 from 217,000 in the prior week, revised from 215,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 initial claims. The four- [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Aug 07 2019

  U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Increase as Interest Rates Decline

  The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index rose 5.3% (46.5% y/y) during the week ending August 2 following five consecutive weeks of decline. Applications to refinance a loan firmed 11.8% and [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief