Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

USA| May 24 2022
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Gasoline prices jump to another record high.

Crude oil prices strengthen.

Natural gas prices rise to highest level since February 2021.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 23 2022
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves in April
Three of four major components rise marginally m/m.

Three-month moving average slips.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 23 2022
NABE Lowers Growth Expectations for Next Year & 2022
Consumer spending growth is reduced; capital spending is raised.

Housing starts are predicted to ease. Vehicle sales growth is trimmed.

Price inflation and interest rate estimates are raised.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 20 2022
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Continue to Decline
Metals & lumber prices move sharply lower.

Prices elsewhere are mixed.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 12 2022
U.S. Producer Price Inflation Moderates in April
Services prices hold steady.

Core goods prices remain strong.

Energy & food prices soar again.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 12 2022
U.S. Housing Affordability Plunges in March
Home prices & mortgage rates continue to surge.

Payment as a percent of income increases almost two percentage points.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 11 2022
U.S. Consumer Price Increase Slows During April
Pricing power overall at the retail level moderated in April, but the details show evidence of continued pricing strength. The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.3% last month as expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey, following an unrevised 1.2% March rise. The 8.3% y/y gain was below the 8.5% y/y pace set in March and stood a hair under the previous peak 8.4% y/y set in January 1982.

Prices excluding food & energy rose an expected 0.6% last month, doubling the March rise. It was the strongest increase in three months. The 6.2% y/y gain jumped from a recent low of 1.3% y/y set in February 2021.

A 2.7% decline (+30.3% y/y) in energy prices led the moderation in pricing strength overall during April, following an 11.0% March increase. Gasoline prices fell 6.1% (+43.6% y/y) after reaching a record high in March. Fuel oil prices, however, surged 2.7% (80.5% y/y). Natural gas prices strengthened 3.1% (22.7% y/y) while the cost of electricity rose 0.7% (11.0% y/y).

Food prices remained strong last month, rising 0.9% (9.4% y/y) which was similar to the increases in each of the prior three months. Meat, poultry, fish & egg prices rose 1.4% (14.3% y/y). Cereal & bakery product prices also were strong and gained 1.1% (10.3% y/y). These increases were offset by a 0.3% decline (+7.8% y/y) in fruit & vegetable prices.

Services prices rose 0.7%. The 4.9% y/y gain compared to 1.3% y/y at the start of 2021. The cost of public transportation surged 12.1% (21.8% y/y). Shelter costs increased 0.5% (5.1% y/y). The owners' equivalent rent of primary residences gained 0.5% (4.8% y/y) as rents of primary residences rose 0.6% (4.8% y/y). The cost of medical care services increased 0.5% (3.5% y/y). Recreation services prices gained 0.4% (4.4% y/y) while education prices edged 0.2% higher (1.7% y/y).

Goods prices excluding food & energy rose 0.2% (9.7% y/y) in April after a 0.4% March decline. Price changes within categories were mixed. Used car & truck prices weakened 0.4% (+22.7% y/y), the third straight monthly decline, but new vehicle prices rose 1.1% (13.2% y/y). Education & communication product prices fell 2.6% (-4.0% y/y) as recreation product prices gained 0.5% (4.0% y/y). To the upside, home furnishings prices rose 0.5% (10.6% y/y) but household appliance prices fell 0.5% (+7.8% y/y). Apparel prices declined 0.8% (+5.4% y/y).

The Consumer Price Index data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 10 2022
U.S. Energy Prices Strengthen
Gasoline prices jump to record high.

Crude oil prices increase sharply.

Natural gas prices rise to highest level since February 2021.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 10 2022
U.S. Small Business Optimism Remains Weak
Optimism holds at lowest level since April 2020.

Expectations of better business conditions in next six months fall to another all-time low.

Pricing power nears record high.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 09 2022
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong Gain in March
Strong increases are registered broadly.

Widespread sales gains also are registered.

Inventory-to-sales ratio steadies.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| May 06 2022
U.S. Job Market Strength Continues in April
Employment gains moderate, but remain robust.

Hourly earnings growth stays strong y/y.

Jobless rate steadies near 50-year low.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Viewpoints
USA| May 05 2022
U.S. Productivity Declines and Drives Labor Costs Higher in Q1
Productivity drop is greater-than-expected.

Compensation gain weakens.

Unit labor costs surge.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief