U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Tumble at Yearend
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Emergence of Omicron dampens demand & disrupts supply.
- Vehicle sales & gasoline sales ease.
- Online sales plummet.
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments declined 1.9% (+16.9% y/y) during December following a 0.2% November increase, revised from 0.3%. No change in December sales had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During all of last year, retail sales rose 19.4%. October sales rose an unrevised 1.8%. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 2.3% in December (+18.8% y/y) following a 0.1% November uptick, revised from 0.3%. A 0.2% increase had been expected. During all of last year, nonauto sales increased 18.4%. October's 1.8% increase was unrevised.
Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, gas stations, building materials and food services, fell 3.1% last month (+12.9% y/y) following a 0.5% November decline, revised from -0.1%.
Motor vehicle sales fell 0.4% (+10.2% y/y) in December after a 0.2% November increase. Unit motor vehicle sales increased declined 3.1% last month (-22.9% y/y) after weakening 0.8% in November.
Retail purchases via the internet plummeted 8.7% (+10.7% y/y) last month following a 1.5% decline. Furniture & home furnishing store sales weakened 5.5% in December (+11.1% y/y) after rising 0.5% in November. Electronics & appliance store sales declined 2.9% (+14.6% y/y) after falling 9.7% in the prior month. Sporting goods, hobby and book store sales weakened 4.3% (+18.1% y/y) after a 2.1% increase. Apparel store sales declined 3.1% last month (+29.5% y/y) after three months of firm gain. General merchandise store sales fell 1.5% last month (+14.6% y/y) and added to the prior month's 1.2% fall. Within that category, department store sales weakened 7.0% (+22.5% y/y) after falling 5.5% in November.
Gasoline service station sales eased 0.7% (+41.0% y/y) following a 2.2% November increase. December's sales decline reflected a 1.8% drop in gasoline prices (seasonally adjusted by Haver) which followed a 3.3% increase. Building materials & garden equipment sales rose 0.9% last month (12.5% y/y) after two months of strong increase.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & beverage store sales eased 0.5% during December (+8.4% y/y) and reversed the November increase. Health & personal care store sales rose 0.5% (8.4% y/y) after rising 0.9%.
Sales at restaurants & drinking establishments fell 0.8% last month (+41.3% y/y) after a 0.6% November increase.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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