U.S. Wholesale Inventories & Sales Rise in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Durable goods lead inventory rise.
- Total sales firm for a third consecutive month.
- I/S ratio holds steady.
Wholesale inventories rose 1.4% (15.9% y/y) during November compared to a 1.2% gain in the advance report issued on December 29. October's inventory increase was revised to 2.5% from 2.3%. The Informa Global Markets Survey expected a 1.2% November gain.
Durable goods inventories increased 2.1% in November (17.0% y/y) after rising 2.5% during October. Furniture & home furnishings led the gain with a 4.5% rise (31.1% y/y). Motor vehicle & parts inventories rose a steady 2.7% (2.4% y/y). Metals & minerals inventories increased 2.5% (41.7% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories gained 1.8% (22.9%) while machinery inventories rose 1.2% (5.2% y/y). Professional & commercial equipment inventories increased 0.9% (16.6% y/y). In the nondurable sector, inventories edged 0.3% higher (14.4% y/y) after a 2.5% October increase. A 5.4% decline (+33.8% y/y) in inventories of petroleum & petroleum products held back the November increase. Apparel inventories gained 3.9% (12.1% y/y) and grocery inventories increased 2.6% (16.1% y/y). Paper & paper product inventories rose 1.5% (11.9% y/y) while chemicals inventories edged 0.1% higher (19.4%).
Wholesale sales rose 1.3% (23.3% y/y) during November after increasing 2.5% in October, revised from 2.2%. A 1.2% rise was anticipated in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Sales of nondurable goods rose 2.0% in November (32.4% y/y) following a 3.6% October rise. Sales of petroleum products rose 4.8% (115.9% y/y) with higher prices. Chemical purchases rose 3.3% (34.1% y/y) and apparel sales rose 2.0% (20.7% y/y). Grocery sales rose 1.4% (19.5% y/y) but sales of paper product sales declined 1.1% (+17.9% y/y). Durable goods sales improved 0.6% in November (14.1% y/y). Lumber sales strengthened 3.0% (24.3% y/y). Electrical equipment sales increased 2.1% (2.8% y/y) and sales of metals gained 1.5% (77.6% y/y). Machinery sales rose 1.6% (19.6% y/y) but purchases of motor vehicles gained just 0.4% (1.4%). Hardware product sales increased 0.9% (14.1% y/y) while furniture & home furnishings sales held steady (9.1% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio held steady in November at 1.22 where it's been for three straight months. The durable goods I/S ratio surged to 1.58, up from a May low of 1.48. The nondurable I/S ratio eased to 0.92, the lowest point since November 2014.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure for inventories is contained in the MMSAMER database. Expectations for sales are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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