U.S. Pending Home Sales Ease in November
Summary
- Decrease reverses some of prior month's advance.
- Sales weakest in Midwest, which had been strongest in October
Pending home sales decreased 2.2% in November (-2.7% y/y) after rising 7.5% in October. Apart from October's surge, sales were the highest since last January. These sales are measured at contract signing, as described below.
By region in November, sales fell in all four areas. They declined the most in the Midwest, 6.3% (+0.2% y/y), but they had been the strongest there in October, gaining 11.9%. The next largest November decline was in the West, 2.2% (-4.6% y/y) after a 2.5% increase in October. Sales fell 0.7% (-1.3% y/y) in the South after October's sizable 7.7% gain. Contract signings were little changed in the Northeast, -0.1%, but that was still 8.5% lower than November 2020; they had advanced 6.9% in October.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.
The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the SURVEYW database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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