U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Decline is to lowest level since November 1968.
- Continued weeks claimed edge higher.
- Insured unemployment rate holds at record low.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance of 166,000 in the week ended April 2 (-74.3% y/y) compared to 171,000 in the prior week, revised from 202,000. It equaled the lowest level of initial claims since November 1968. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 200,000 claims for the latest week. The 4-week moving average of initial claims fell to 170,000 from 178,000 in the prior week. The figures were revised from 2017 to 2021.
In the week ended March 26, continued weeks claimed for unemployment insurance of 1.523 million compared to 1.506 million in the prior week, revised from 1.307 million. These figures were the lowest since December 1969.
The insured unemployment rate held steady at the record low of 1.1%. The prior week's figure was revised from 0.9%.
In the week ended March 12, the number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs fell to 1.723 million from 1.776 million in the prior week. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs. Continued claims for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer reported as both programs have expired.
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 19 were in California (2.40%), New Jersey (2.37%), Alaska (2.16%), Minnesota (2.11%), Rhode Island (2.07%), and Massachusetts (1.98%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.18%), Alabama (0.20%), North Carolina (0.32%), Tennessee (0.38%), Florida (0.39%) and Texas (0.83%).
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey and is in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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