U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payrolls Show Surprising Strength in December

The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 807,000 (5.2% y/y during December following a 505,000 November increase, revised from 534,000. A 360,000 December rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average gain rose to 625,000. That was the strongest since July and up from 386,000 as of September. October payrolls increased 563,000, revised from 570,000.

Large-sized payrolls led last month's increase with a 389,000 increase (4.4% y/y) after increasing 244,000 in November. It was the strongest advance since June 2020. Medium-sized payrolls increased 214,000 last month (6.9% y/y) following a 147,000 November rise. It was the largest increase since June of this year. Small-sized payrolls added 204,000 persons in December (5.2% y/y) following a 114,000 November gain. It was the largest increase also since June 2021.

Within industry sectors, private services employment continued to lead the month's increase with a 669,000 surge (5.4% y/y) in December after rising 401,000 in November. It was the largest increase since June. Leisure & hospitality jobs grew by 246,000 (18.4% y/y) which doubled the November increase. The number of trade, transportation & utilities jobs rose 138,000 (3.3% y/y), the largest increase since September of last year. Professional & business services jobs followed with a 130,000 gain (4.0% y/y), improved from the 24,000 increase in December 2020. The number of education & health services jobs rose 85,000 (3.6% y/y), the strongest increase in six months and up from a 20,000 low in December of last year. Employment in financial services improved 24,000 (1.6% y/y) after increasing 13,000 in November. The number of information sector jobs rose 12,000 (2.0% y/y) following a 9,000 November increase.

Employment amongst goods-producing firms increased 138,000 (4.0% y/y) last month following a 104,000 November rise. The three-month average monthly increase of 117,000 was the largest since August of last year. The number of factory sector jobs rose 74,000 last month (3.1% y/y) after increasing 47,000 in November. The size of construction sector payrolls rose an improved 62,000 (5.0% y/y), the largest increase since June of last year. Employment in the natural resource & mining sector rose 2,000 (9.2% y/y) but monthly increases have slowed consistently since May.

The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey covers 411,000 companies and includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.

The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to 2001 for private employment and the industry breakdown, and 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.