U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payrolls Improve in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gain is larger than expected.
- Leisure & hospitality continues to lead growth.
- Factory & construction sectors also improve.
The job market remained firm this month. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 455,000 during March (5.3% y/y) after rising 486,000 in February, revised from 475,000 reported initially. A 420,000 March rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Medium-sized payrolls led this month's gain with a 188,000 increase (6.3% y/y) after rising 23,000 in February, revised from 18,000. Large-sized payrolls strengthened 177,000 in March (5.5% y/y) after a 559,000 February surge, revised from 552,000. Small-sized payrolls rebounded 90,000 (3.8% y/y) after falling an unrevised 96,000 in February.
Within industry sectors, private services employment led this month's growth with a 377,000 increase (5.4% y/y) after increasing 426,000 in February, revised from 417,000. Leisure & hospitality jobs increased 161,000 (17.2% y/y) after gaining 177,000 in February. The number of education & health services jobs rose 72,000 (3.4% y/y) after a 44,000 February increase. This month's gain was the largest in three months. Professional & business services jobs increased 61,000 (4.3% y/y) following a 70,000 February rise. The number of trade, transportation & utilities jobs grew 49,000 in March (3.5% y/y) after rising 96,000 last month. Employment in financial services rose 12,000 in March (1.9% y/y), about as it did in each of the prior two months. The number of information sector jobs held steady in March (3.2% y/y) after a 7,000 gain.
Employment in the goods-producing sector firmed in March, increasing 79,000 after a 60,000 gain in February, revised from 57,000. The number of factory sector jobs rose 54,000 (3.7% y/y) following a 29,000 February gain, revised from 30,000 (3.9% y/y). Construction sector payrolls rose 15,000 (5.0% y/y) after increasing 29,000 in February, revised from 26,000. Employment in the natural resource & mining sector improved 9,000 (10.3% y/y) after three straight months of roughly 2,000 gain.
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey covers 411,000 companies and includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to 2001 for private employment and the industry breakdown, and 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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