U.S. Retail Sales Tumble in December
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
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Decline is broad-based.
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Discretionary spending weakens.
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Falling gasoline prices accentuate decline.
Consumers continue to retrain spending behavior. Retail sales declined 1.1% (+6.0% y/y) during December following a 1.0% November weakening, revised from -0.6%. A 0.9% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Excluding autos, sales also fell 1.1% (+7.0% y/y) after a 0.6% decline in November, revised from -0.2%. A 0.5% weakening had been expected.
Motor vehicle sales declined 1.2% last month (+1.8% y/y) after weakening 2.6% in November. The decline compared to a 5.6% fall in unit vehicle sales which came after 6.1% November drop. Lower prices dragged gasoline station sales down by 4.6% (+5.2% y/y), after falling 1.6% in November.
Sales amongst other stores were weak. Sales in the retail control group, which excludes autos, building materials, gasoline & restaurants, fell 0.7% (+6.7% y/y) after easing 0.2%% in November.
Furniture & home furnishing store sales fell 2.5% (+0.3% y/y) after a 2.2% November decline. Electronics & appliance store sales weakened 1.1% (-5.6% y/y) after a 1.2% November drop. Sales of nonstore retailers fell 1.1% (+13.7% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick while apparel sales eased 0.3% (+2.9% y/y) in December following a 0.8% drop. General merchandise sales weakened 0.8% (+3.8% y/y) after two months of slight decline. Sporting goods & hobby shop store sales improved 0.1% (3.9% y/y) after falling 0.3% in November. Building materials store sales rose 0.3% (2.3% y/y) after falling 3.1% in November.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & beverage store sales held steady last month (6.9% y/y) following a 0.4% November increase. Health & personal care store sales declined 0.9% (+2.8% y/y) after a 0.6% rise.
Restaurant & drinking place sales declined 0.9% (+12.1% y/y) after easing 0.1% in November.
The Retail Sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in AS1REPNA.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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