Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
| Dec 23 2022

U.S. Personal Income Rose in November but Real Spending Was Flat

  • Personal income beat expectations in November.

  • Wage increases remain firm.

  • Real spending on goods declined while real spending on services increased during November.

Personal income rose 0.4% (4.7% y/y) during November versus expectations for a 0.3% rise and following a 0.7% (4.8% y/y) in October. The gain reflected a 0.5% rise (6.2% y/y) in wages & salaries, corresponding to continued employment growth, and following a 0.5% rise in October. Proprietors' income eased 0.2% (3.7% y/y) following a similar retrenchment in October. Rental income eased 0.1% % (7.2% y/y) in November. Receipts on assets rose 0.5% (4.9% y/y) as interest income increased 0.6% (6.6% y/y) and dividend income rose 0.3 % (3.2% y/y). Personal transfer receipts increased 0.3% (1.1% y/y). Disposable income rose 0.4% (2.9% y/y) in November, following a rise of 0.7% (2.9% y/y) in October, while real disposable earnings rose 0.3% (-2.5% y/y) in November following an increase of 0.4% (-3.0% y/y) in October.

The personal saving rate edged up to 2.4% in November after the near record low of 2.2% in October, revised from 2.3%. The level of personal savings bounced back 10% last month from a decline of 5.2% in October and was 64.8% lower y/y.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.1% (7.7% y/y) in November, after rising 0.9% (8.1% y/y) during October, initially reported as a 0.8% (7.9% y/y) rise. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.1% rise. In November, real PCE increased less than 0.1% (2.0% y/y), reflecting a decrease of 0.6% in spending on goods and an increase of 0.3% in spending on services. Real spending on durable goods declined 1.5% (+0.6% y/y) last month as spending on motor vehicle & parts decreased 4.3% (-1.5% y/y) after surging 5.2% in October. Real spending of furniture & appliances decreased 0.4% (-1.5% y/y) in November, after a 1.2% rise in October. Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles rose 0.5% (5.3% y/y) following a 0.4% increase in October.

Real spending on nondurable goods edged down 0.1% (-1.5% y/y) in November, after rising 0.2% (-1.5% y/y) in October. Outlays on gasoline & other energy products fell 1.5% (-4.2% y/y) following a 0.7% decline in October. Real apparel spending declined 0.6% (0.6% y/y) last month, after a 0.2% rise in October and real outlays on food & beverages gained 0.3% (-4.6% y/y) following a 0.2% rise the prior month.

Real spending on household consumer services improved rose 0.3% (3.3% y/y), after a 0.2% (3.1% y/y) rise in October. Real transportation services outlays dropped 1.0% (+1.7% y/y) after a 0.4% rise the prior month, while real housing & utilities expenditures rose 0.3% (1.2% y/y) after a similar 0.3% in October. Real healthcare spending gained 0.3% in last month (2.3% y/y) after a 0.3% rise in October. Recreation services buying declined 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in November following a 0.2% rise in October, while real food services and accommodations rose 0.8% (7.3% y/y) last month after a 0.4% rise in October. Real spending on financial services and insurance rose 0.3% (1.6% y/y) last month after a 0.2% gain in October.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics forecasts are in AS1REPNA.

  • Kathleen Stephansen is a Senior Economist for Haver Analytics and an Independent Trustee for the EQAT/VIP/1290 Trust Funds, encompassing the US mutual funds sponsored by the Equitable Life Insurance Company. She is a former Chief Economist of Huawei Technologies USA, Senior Economic Advisor to the Boston Consulting Group, Chief Economist of the American International Group (AIG) and AIG Asset Management’s Senior Strategist and Global Head of Sovereign Research. Prior to joining AIG in 2010, Kathleen held various positions as Chief Economist or Head of Global Research at Aladdin Capital Holdings, Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette Securities Corporation.

    Kathleen serves on the boards of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), as Vice-Chair of the GIC College of Central Bankers, is the Treasurer for Economists for Peace and Security (EPS) and is a former board member of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE). She is a member of Chatham House and the Economic Club of New York. She holds an undergraduate degree in economics from the Universite Catholique de Louvain and graduate degrees in economics from the University of New Hampshire (MA) and the London School of Economics (PhD abd).

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