U.S. New Home Sales & Prices Decline in October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales reverse most of earlier increase.
- Median sales price weakens to roughly two-year low.
- Movement in sales is mixed nationally.
New single-family home sales fell 5.6% (-17.7% y/y) to 679,000 units (SAAR) during October after rising 8.6% to 719,000 in September, revised from 759,000, according to a release jointly issued by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 721,000. Sales were below the 1.029 million high in August 2020. New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed.
The median price of a new home fell 3.1% (-17.6% y/y) to $409,300 during October from $422,300 in September, revised from $418,800. These prices were below the October 2022 peak of $496,800. The average sales price of a new home declined 5.5% (-10.4% y/y) to $487,000 last month from $515,400 in September, revised from $503,900. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.
By region, new home sales were mixed last month. Sales in the Northeast increased 13.2% (10.3 % y/y) to 43,000 in October after holding steady in September. Sales in the South rose 2.1% last month (19.2% y/y) to 440,000 after an 8.6% September gain. Offsetting these increases, sales in the West weakened 23.3% (+18.9% y/y) in October to 145,000 after a 14.5% September improvement. Finally, October new home sales in the Midwest were off 16.4% (+8.5% y/y) to 51,000, the fourth decline in the last five months.
The number of new homes on the market rose 1.4% (-5.8% y/y) to 439,000 (SA) last month, the fourth increase in five months. The latest figure stands well above the 281,000 low in October 2020. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 7.8 months in October and reversed September’s decline to 7.2 months. It remained down from a high of 10.1 months in July 2022.
The median number of months a new home stayed on the market rose to 2.5 last month from 2.4 months in September. The reading remained up from the record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of last year, but down from a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.
New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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