Tom Moeller

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The Autodata Corporation reported that light vehicle sales during May fell 6.0% (+18.9% y/y) to 15.14 million units (SAAR) following a 7.4% rise during April. Despite the decline, sales remain in an uptrend since a low of 12.38 million in September of 2021.

Sales of light trucks declined 6.3% (+20.1% y/y) during May to 11.96 million units after increasing 6.8% in April. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks weakened 5.5% (+19.5% y/y) to 9.38 million units after rising 5.6% in April	. Sales of imported light trucks fell 8.8% (+21.7% y/y) to 2.58 million units after improving 11.0% during April.

Trucks' share of the light vehicle market eased to 79.0% last month from 79.3%.

Auto sales fell 4.8% (+14.8% y/y) last month to 3.18 million units following a 9.5% April increase. Purchases of domestically-produced cars declined 5.7% (+20.9% y/y) to 2.31 million units after rising 11.4% in April. Sales of imported autos weakened 2.2% (+1.2% y/y) to 0.87 million after strengthening 6.0% in April.

Imports' share of the U.S. vehicle market slipped last month to 22.7% from 23.1% in April. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 27.4% in May from 26.7% in April. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 21.6% in May from 22.2% in the prior month.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales lead latest downturn.
- Imports' market share eases.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Decline in May

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Sales of existing homes fell 4.3% (-3.7% y/y) during March to 4.19 (SAAR) million from an unrevised 4.38 million in February. January sales also were unrevised at 4.0 million. Sales remained increased from the low of 3.85 million in October 2023. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected March sales of 4.13 million units. The sales figures are based on closings of sales signed in earlier months.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) improved 2.5% (4.8% y/y) to $393,500 after rising to $383,800 in February. Prices remained 4.9% below the June 2022 peak of $413,800. The median price of an existing single-family home in March improved 2.4% (4.7% y/y) to $397,200 after rising 1.3% in February. The median price for condos & co-ops surged 4.2% (5.8%) to $357,400 after rising 1.0% in February.

Single-family home sales fell 4.3% (-2.8% y/y) last month to 3.80 million units after rising 10.3% February. Sales remained 35.0% below their high of 5.85 million in October 2020. Condo and co-op sales declined 4.9% (-11.4% y/y) to 390,000 after rising 2.5% in February. Sales have declined 47.3% since the January 2021 high of 740,000.

Sales declined throughout most of the country last month. Sales in the West fell 8.2% (-3.7% y/y) to 780,000 after rising 16.4% in February. Sales in the Midwest weakened 1.9% (-1.0% y/y) to 1.01 million last month after rising 8.4% in February. Sales in the South declined 5.9% (-5.0% y/y) in March to 1.90 million after rising 9.8% in February. Sales in the Northeast rose 4.2% (-3.8% y/y) to 500,000 after holding steady for three straight months.

The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) rose 4.7% (14.4% y/y) to 1.1 million in March after rising 5.0% in February. The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) rose to 3.2 months from 2.9 months in February. The record low in supply of 1.6 months was reached in January, 2022. These figures date back to January 1999.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Sales retreat from twelve-month high.
- Home prices rebound to seven-month high.
- Sales decline in much of country.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Decline in March

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported in its April survey of manufacturing activity that the Current Activity Diffusion Index jumped to 15.5 this month from 3.2 in March and 5.2 in February. An index reading of 0.9 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The Philly Fed survey responses were collected from April 8 to April 15.

The ISM-Adjusted Composite Index, calculated by Haver Analytics from the survey results, improved to 49.8 this month from 48.0 in March. It was the highest level since August 2022, but remaining below 50, it still suggests a net contraction in activity. It compared to a March 2023 low of 39.6.

Changes in the individual series were mixed this month. New orders surged to 12.2 from 5.4 in March. An improved 32.5% of respondents reported an increase in new orders while a lessened 20.3% reported a decline. The shipments index rose to 19.1 from 11.4, as a higher 36.5% reported increased shipments and a steady 17.4% reported declines. The delivery time reading rose to -9.4 from -16.7 as 10.0% reported faster delivery speeds, while 19.4% reported slower speeds.

Working lower, the unfilled orders measure eased to 0.8 in April from 1.0 in March. A lessened 13.6% reported an increase in order backlogs while 12.8% reported a decline. The inventories reading dropped to -8.9 from 4.4, negative for the sixth month in the last seven.

Job market conditions deteriorated this month as indicated by an employment reading which fell to -10.7 from -9.6 in March. Six percent of respondents reported more hiring while 16.4% reported less. Also weakening, the average workweek figure declined to -18.7 from -0.2.

The index of prices paid surged this month to 23.0 after a March decline to 3.7. This reflected 25.9% of respondents reporting increased prices and 2.8% reporting a decline. The prices received index improved to 5.5 from 4.6 and remained up from a low of -2.7 in May of last year. A steady 11.6% of respondents reported price increases and a lessened 6.2% reported declines.

Expectations for business conditions in the next six months deteriorated slightly with the April reading of 34.3 down from 38.6 in April. It remained up, however, from -4.0 in January. Expected shipments & new orders eased but employment expectations rose to the highest level in nine months. The expected workweek reading surged to the highest level since October 2021. Expectations for prices paid also strengthened to the highest level since June 2022. The prices received index eased, however, after strengthening in April.

The diffusion indexes represent the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The Philadelphia Fed data can be found in Haver's **SURVEYS** database. The expectations forecast figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Composite index moves to highest level in two years as new orders & shipments strengthen.
- Prices paid measure jumps; prices received increases as well.
- Expectations ease slightly but remain positive.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Surges in April

Carol Stone, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were steady at 212,000 seasonally adjusted in the week ended April 13, with the earlier week revised marginally from 211,000 initially reported. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected the latest week at 215,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 214,500 in the April 13 week, unchanged from the week before. These latest amounts extend a narrow range for initial claims of 187,000 to 261,000 that has prevailed since the middle of 2021.

Insured unemployment, also known as continued weeks claimed, was 1.812 million in the week ended April 6, up slightly from 1.810 million the prior week. The earlier week was revised down from 1.817 million reported before. As with initial claims, these continuing claims have hovered in a narrow range for an extended period; they have run from 1.728 million to 1.829 million since May 2023.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, the amount of insured unemployment as a percentage of covered employment, is yet again 1.2% in the April 6 week. It has been at that amount continually since May 11, 2023.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Initial claims maintain tight range for almost 2 years.
- Continuing claims still fairly steady since May 2023.
- Insured unemployment rate holds at 1.2%, also since May 2023.

U.S. Jobless Claims Steady at a Moderate 212,000 in April 13 Week

Robert Brusca

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Registrations for cars in Europe for March fell by 8.8% month-to-month after falling by 1% in February. January, however, had been a strong month for registrations in Europe. The sequential trends are mixed and do not show a clear way forward. The 12-month change in sales/registrations falls 4.7%. Over six months registrations fall harder at an 11.9% annual rate, but then over three months registrations gain at a 7% annual rate. These data are prone to volatility. To adjust for that, I execute the same calculations on three-month average data to smooth out the volatility and let the trend shine through. Unfortunately, this procedure still does not produce a clearer picture of trend.

Chart 1, executed on year-over-year growth rates, shows registrations gradually losing momentum among reporting countries. Sequential growth rates across countries finds Germany and Spain with accelerating sales/registrations. France and Itay with fairly clear trends showing decelerating sales. Meanwhile, the U.K. trend shows confusion with no clear pattern emerging.

Looking very broadly, all reporting countries show registrations lower in March everywhere except for France, in 2024 compared to January 2020 before Covid struck. France is the lone exception that shows registrations in March higher by just 2.2% than they were over four years ago. That is not exactly a stunning success.

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Europe has been struggling. Weakness in vehicle sales is not news. After Covid, vehicle registrations dropped sharply then recovered but dropped again in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In early 2022 registrations bottomed out and rebounded into 2023, but by later in 2023 the rebound had run its course and trends turned flat and since have decayed.

The ECB is set to provide some help if it can follow through. Markets expect an ECB rate cut in June of this year. But U.S. and U.K. experiences might provide some caution or counterpoint as inflation has kicked up its heels in the U.S. and put the Fed’s well-telegraphed plan to ease on the back burner. In the U.K., inflation has simply slowed its progress and seems to be moving sideways.

Global economic conditions have been disrupted and under pressure dating back to the Great Recession. That recovery was drawn out and slow with unemployment rates falling continuously in recovery but slowly in the recession aftermath. Then Covid struck and created a new disruption that since has been magnified by the Ukraine invasion, Hamas’ attack on Irael, Israel’s response to ferret out Hamas, and now Iraq’s attack on Israel has given way to the re-emergence of an active axis of evil with Iran, China and North Korea providing support and arms to Russia in its aggression toward Ukraine. It is not clear when the global economy will ever be the same as these shocks and alliances disrupt global activity and drive wedges between countries that used to trade freely. The global economy is in a very disrupted and dangerous state of play.

Vehicle Registrations Losing Momentum in Europe