Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
USA
| Feb 04 2025

U.S. JOLTS: Openings Decline Sharply but Hiring Picks Up in December

Summary
  • Job openings drop following upwardly revised November gain.
  • Decline concentrated in professional services & education.
  • Layoffs reverse fall back but continue to trend higher.

Job openings declined 556,000 (-14.5% y/y) during December to 7.6 million after rising 317,000 during November, revised from 259,000, to 8.156 million, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The number of job openings has been trending downward since the peak of 12.182 million reached in March 2022. The job openings rate fell to 4.5% from 4.9% in November, revised from 4.8%. It was the lowest openings rate in three months and remains well below a high of 7.4% in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.

Private sector openings declined 548,000 (-14.8% y/y) to 6.720 million after rising 319,000 in November and 448,000 in October. The December decline reflected a 225,000 drop (-0.8% y/y) in professional & business services openings fell 225,000 (-0.8% y/y) while private educational & health openings dropped 194,000 (-20.7% y/y). Construction sector job openings declined 55,000 (-50.0% y/y) while openings in manufacturing fell 11,000 (-27.0% y/y), their fifth consecutive monthly decline. The private sector job openings rate declined to 4.7% in December from an upwardly revised 5.1% in November and 4.9% in October. It has fallen from 5.5% twelve months earlier and 7.9% at its peak in March 2022.

Total hiring picked up in December by 89,000 (-5.6% y/y) to 5.462 million after falling 21,000 in November and 188,000 in October. Private sector hiring rose 69,000 (-5.4% y/y) after a 6,000 November decline and a 192,000 October collapse. Professional & business services hiring rose 11,000 (-8.2% y/y) while retail trade jobs rose 45,000 (4.5% y/y. Leisure & hospitality employment fell 33,000 (-11.8% y/y) and construction sector hiring was off 24,000 (-15.7% y/y). Government hiring rose 20,000 (-8.2% y/y).

Total job separations rose 38,000 (-2.8% y/y) to 5.269 million in December after falling 75,000 in November. Quits rose 67,000 (-7.0% y/y) after falling 153,000 in November while layoffs declined 29,000 (+10.2% y/y) after rising 52,000 in November; and other separations rose 1,000. Private layoffs fell 31,000 (+11.9% y/y) in December, reflecting a 61,000 decrease (+10.0% y/y) in leisure & hospitality layoffs. This was offset by a 99,000 surge in layoffs (+35.5% y/y) in trade, transportation & utilities. Layoffs in the government sector rose 2,000 (-16.2% y/y).

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s USECON database.

  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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