Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
| May 10 2024

U.S. Government Budget Deficit Shrinks So Far in FY 2024

  • Personal income tax receipts surge.
  • Corporate tax payments strengthen.
  • Outlay growth moderates with fewer income security payments.

For the first seven months of FY 2024, the U.S. Treasury Department reported a U.S. government budget deficit of $855.2 billion compared to a $924.9 billion deficit in the first seven months of FY 2023. For April alone, the budget surplus of $209.5 billion compared to a $176.2 billion surplus twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a $270 billion surplus for April.

Overall revenues have increased 10.3% y/y as individual income tax receipts rose 11.4% y/y so far in FY’24. The level of corporate tax receipts rose by roughly one-quarter versus the first seven months of FY’23. Social insurance revenues have risen an improved 6.6% y/y and excise taxes have increased 14.0% y/y so far in FY’24. Customs duties fell 7.4% y/y, continuing the decline since late-2022.

Federal government outlays have increased 5.8% y/y so far in FY’24. Defense spending rose 7.0% so far this fiscal year, about equal to the gain in the first seven months of FY’24. Medicare payments increased 9.1% y/y while Social Security outlays rose 8.7% y/y after rising 10.5% in the first seven months of FY’23. Interest payments strengthened 41.4% y/y so far in FY’24, about as they did last year. Health program spending have edged 0.8% higher this year, while income security outlays fell 16.3% this fiscal year as they did in the first seven months of FY’23.

Haver's data on Federal Government receipts & outlays are contained in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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