Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
| Aug 30 2023

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens in July

  • $91.18 billion deficit in July, slightly larger than expected.
  • Exports rebound 1.5%, the first m/m gain since March.
  • Imports rise 1.9% following two straight m/m drops.

The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to $91.18 billion in July after narrowing to $88.83 billion in June, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the first time since April that the goods deficit had widened. The July deficit was larger than an $89.63 billion shortfall in July 2022. A $90.1 billion deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a peak of $121.18 billion in March 2022. The goods trade deficit widened to $277.93 billion in Q2'23, the largest since Q2'22, after narrowing to $264.10 billion in Q1'23. The goods trade deficit subtracted 0.49%-point from real GDP growth in Q2'23.

Total exports rose 1.5% m/m in July, the first monthly rise since March, after a 0.1% downtick in June. However, imports had fallen 8.8% since a July 2022 high. The rebound in exports in July reflected exports m/m rises of 10.3% (18.2% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 2.3% (-24.2% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials, and 0.4% (4.6% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos. In contrast, exports of other goods (-3.9%; +7.5% y/y), foods, feeds & beverages (-0.7%; -19.2% y/y), and capital goods excluding autos (-0.5%; +2.9% y/y) posted their m/m declines.

Total imports rose 1.9% m/m (-5.3% y/y) in July, the first monthly gain since April, after a 1.1% decline in June. Nevertheless, imports had fallen 11.6% since a March 2022 high. The rise in imports in July reflected imports m/m increases of 4.1% (-4.1% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 4.0% (-0.5% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, 3.6% (16.5% y/y) in other goods, 2.9% (-1.9% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 2.6% (20.0% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts. Exports of industrial supplies & materials were the only end-use category with a monthly decline in July, falling 3.4% (-26.1% y/y); it was the eighth m/m drop in nine months on top of a 3.9% June decrease.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.

  • Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has almost 20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations.   Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia.   Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (almost 30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.

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