U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens in December
Summary
- $90.27 billion deficit in December, larger than expected.
- Exports decline 1.6%, down for the fourth consecutive month.
- Imports rebound 1.9%, up for the third time in four months.
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to $90.27 billion in December after narrowing to $82.93 billion in November, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This was the third time in four months that the goods deficit had widened. The December deficit was smaller than a $99.44 billion shortfall in December 2021. A $88.1 billion deficit had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit had reached a peak of $125.66 billion in March 2022. The goods trade deficit widened to $271.84 billion in Q4'22 after narrowing to $268.55 billion in Q3'22. However, in Q4'22, a narrower deficit in goods & services showed net exports added 0.6%-points to Q4 GDP growth after having added 2.9%-points in Q3'22.
Total exports fell 1.6% m/m (+5.2% y/y) in December, the fourth straight m/m fall, after a 2.8% decline in November. However, exports have risen 6.9% since a January 2022 low. Total imports rose 1.9% m/m (-0.4% y/y) in December, the third m/m rise in four months, after a 7.6% drop in November. Nevertheless, imports have fallen 12.6% since a March 2022 high.
The fall in exports in December reflected exports m/m drops of 5.1% (+6.7% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials and 1.7% (-8.4% y/y) in consumer goods excluding autos. To the upside, exports of foods, feeds & beverages (5.0% m/m; -0.5% y/y), automotive vehicles & parts (2.2% m/m; 12.2% y/y), other goods (0.7% m/m; 24.0% y/y), and capital goods excluding autos (0.2% m/m; 7.2% y/y) registered their monthly gains.
The rise in imports in December reflected imports m/m increases of 9.4% (16.5% y/y) in automotive vehicles & parts, 6.6% (-11.1% y/y) in consumer goods excluding autos, 5.0% (-11.1% y/y) in other goods, and 0.1% (5.6% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages. To the downside, imports of industrial supplies & materials (-4.1% m/m; -2.5% y/y) and capital goods excluding autos (-0.3% m/m; +5.7% y/y) posted their monthly decreases.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has ~20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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