U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Widens Further in September
Summary
- Deficit: $134.9 bil. in September, up $2.8 bil. (+2.1%) from August’s $132.1 bil., suggesting a significant drag on Q3’26 GDP growth.
- Exports +2.6%, second straight m/m increase to a five-month high, driven by a 12.8% rebound in foods, feeds & beverages exports; auto exports down 5.6%.
- Imports +2.4%, seventh rise in eight mths. to a record high, led by a 7.5% gain in capital goods imports; industrial supplies & materials imports down 6.0%.
The U.S. international trade deficit in goods unexpectedly widened to $134.90 billion in September, the largest since March 2025, from $132.07 billion in August and $118.86 billion in July, the advance estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau showed, suggesting a significant drag on GDP growth in Q3 2026. The September reading marked the fourth widening in the goods trade deficit in five months, exceeding an $82.73 billion shortfall in September 2025. A deficit of $129.0 billion for September had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a low of $61.44 billion in October 2025 (the smallest since February 2020) and a record high of $158.73 billion in March 2025.
Total goods exports climbed 2.6% m/m (12.7% y/y) to a five-month high of $209.24 billion in September after a 2.1% increase to $203.98 billion in August and three consecutive m/m declines. A record high of $220.11 billion was reached in April. Exports were up 28.7% from a June 2023 low. The m/m gain in exports in September was led by a 12.8% rebound (15.9% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, followed by increases of 6.5% (-10.9% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, 5.4% (24.1% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, and 3.0% (12.4% y/y) in other goods. To the downside, exports of automotive vehicles & parts (-5.6%; -7.0% y/y) and industrial supplies & materials (-1.6%; +14.5% y/y) decreased m/m in September.
Total goods imports rose 2.4% m/m (28.2% y/y) to $344.15 billion in September on top of a 5.4% advance to $336.05 billion in August, marking the seventh monthly increase in eight months and the highest level on record. Imports were up 37.2% from a March 2023 low. The m/m increase in imports in September was led by a 7.5% gain (77.2% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, followed by rises of 6.7% (29.2% y/y) in other goods and 3.1% (-12.0% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos. In contrast, imports of industrial supplies & materials (-6.0%; +19.2% y/y), automotive vehicles & parts (-4.0%; +2.4% y/y), and foods, feeds & beverages (-2.5%; +8.1% y/y) fell m/m in September.
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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