U.S. Gasoline Prices Decline Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
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Gas prices are lowest since July 2021.
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Crude oil costs edge higher.
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Natural gas prices recover after recent weakness.
Retail gasoline prices declined last week to $3.12 per gallon (-5.3% y/y) after falling to $3.24 per gallon during the previous week. Prices have been declining since the mid-June peak of $5.01 per gallon. The retail cost of diesel fuel fell to $4.60 per gallon (+26.8% y/y) last week from $4.75 in the prior week . The price reached a peak of $5.81 per gallon in the third week of June.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose to an average $75.21 per barrel (5.6% y/y) in the week ended December 16 from $73.11 per barrel in the prior week. Prices remained down from a high of $120.46 in the second week of June. Yesterday, the price was $75.19 per barrel. The average price of Brent crude oil rose to $80.18 per barrel last week (8.7% y/y) from $79.56 in the prior week. The price peaked at $127.40 in mid-June. Yesterday, the price was $81.66 per barrel.
The price of natural gas strengthened to $6.84/mmbtu (80.5% y/y) in the week ended December 16 after falling to $4.60/mmbtu in the previous week. Prices peaked at $9.56/mmbtu in the last week of August and were up from a low of $3.56/mmbtu in the last week of December, 2021. Yesterday, the price was $6.00/mmbtu.
In the four weeks ended December 9, gasoline demand declined 9.0% from a year earlier after falling 7.1% y/y during the prior four weeks. These declines compare to 15.2% y/y growth at the end of last year. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 6.9% y/y in the latest four weeks in contrast to the 14.4% growth at the end of 2021. Crude oil input to refineries increased 4.8% y/y.
Gasoline inventories eased 2.3% y/y in the week ended December 9, while crude oil inventories declined 21.5% y/y.
Measured in days' supply, gasoline inventories in the week ended December 9 rose w/w to 26.9 days and are still lower than the 29.2 days in early-February. The supply of crude oil fell to 25.8 days and remained down from 41.8 days in early-March of last year.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data are in USENERGY.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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