U.S. FHFA House Price Growth Slows in December; Q4’25 Momentum Picks Up
Summary
- FHFA HPI +0.1% (+1.8% y/y) in Dec., the smallest of three straight m/m gains.
- House prices up m/m in six of nine census divisions, led by Middle Atlantic (+1.1%), but down in West South Central (-1.0%) and East South Central (-0.1%); prices flat m/m in Pacific.
- House prices up y/y in six of nine regions, led by East North Central (+5.2%), but down in Mountain (-0.6%), Pacific (-0.4%), and South Atlantic (-0.1%).
- House price growth accelerates to 0.8% q/q (+1.8% y/y) in Q4'25 from 0.3% q/q (+2.4% y/y) in Q3.
U.S. house prices edged up 0.1% m/m in December after increases of 0.7% in November (+0.6% initially) and 0.4% in October (unrevised), according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index. December marked the fourth m/m increase in five months and the smallest of three consecutive m/m rises. The HPI reached a record high of 440.36 in December, up 14.4% from its August 2022 low of 384.78. The year-on-year growth rate slowed to 1.8% in December from a three-month-high 2.1% in November, remaining down from 6.9% in February 2024 and well below a high of 18.5% in February 2022. For all of 2025, FHFA house prices rose 2.9% after gains of 5.5% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2023.
The FHFA also released quarterly house price data today. In Q4'25, house prices grew 0.8% q/q, faster than a 0.3% increase in Q3'25, continuing their quarterly gains since Q4'22, with the exception of no change in Q2'25. The y/y growth rate decelerated to 1.8% in Q4'25 from 2.4% in Q3, 3.1% in Q2, and 4.3% in Q1.
House prices rose m/m in December (vs. November) in six of the nine census divisions. Gains were led by Middle Atlantic (+1.1% vs. -0.1%), followed by East North Central (+0.5% vs. +0.6%), Mountain (+0.4% vs. +0.8%), West North Central (+0.3% vs. +0.6%), South Atlantic (+0.2% vs. +0.7%), and New England (+0.1% vs. + 0.4%). In contrast, house prices fell m/m in two census divisions in December (vs. November): West South Central (-1.0% vs. +1.2%) and East South Central (-0.1% vs. +0.8%). Meanwhile, house prices in Pacific were essentially unchanged m/m in December after a 0.8% increase in November.
Year-on-year house prices continued to rise in December in six of the nine regions, except Mountain, Pacific, and South Atlantic. The y/y pace accelerated in December (vs. November) in three of the nine census divisions: East North Central (+5.2% vs. +5.1%), Middle Atlantic (+4.8% vs. +4.5%), and West North Central (+3.9% vs. +3.6%). Meanwhile, house price growth decelerated y/y in December (vs. November) in West South Central (+0.2% vs. +1.3%), East South Central (+2.1% vs. +2.9%), and New England (+2.7% vs. +3.5%). To the downside, Mountain (-0.6% vs. +0.4%), Pacific (-0.4% vs. 0.0%), and South Atlantic (-0.1% vs. +0.1%) posted y/y declines in December (vs. November).
The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included.
The FHFA data are available in Haver’s USECON database.
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has 20+ years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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