U.S. Energy Prices Ease in Latest Week
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Gasoline prices back away from November high.
- Crude oil prices slip but remain above the June low.
- Natural gas prices ease and remain near 2020 low.
Retail gasoline prices for all grades slipped to $3.37 per gallon (-2.7% y/y) in the week ended February 26, 2024 from $3.39 in the prior week. Prices remain above a low of $3.18 in the middle of January. The recent high stands at $4.00 per gallon in the third week of September, and the all-time high was $5.11 in the week ended June 13, 2022. Retail prices for on-highway diesel fuel fell to an average $4.06 per gallon (-5.5% y/y) last week from $4.11 per gallon in the prior week. These are higher than a recent low of $3.77 per gallon in the week ended July 3, 2023.
The average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil of $77.93 per barrel (+3.3% y/y) in the week ended February 23 compared to an average $77.99 in the prior week. It remained increased from a low of $69.37 per barrel in the week of June 30, 2023 but remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The all-time high was seen in the week of July 4, 2008 at $142.46 per barrel. Yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was $77.58 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil rose to $85.02 per barrel (4.0% y/y) in the week ended February 23 from $84.44 in the prior week. The price of Brent has recently ranged from a low of $73.55 in the week ended June 30, 2023 to a high of $127.40 in the week ended June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $84.01 per barrel.
Natural gas prices of an average of $1.56/mmbtu (-28.4% y/y) in the week ended February 23 compared to $1.59/mmbtu in the prior week. These were the lowest prices since June 2020. Thee prices compare to a recent high of $3.20 for the average of the October 13 week. Yesterday, the natural gas price was $1.65/mmbtu.
Gasoline demand declined 2.3% y/y in the four weeks ended February 16 after falling 1.0 y/y in the four weeks ended February 9. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 2.1% y/y after falling 0.3% y/y in the prior four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries declined 2.7% y/y in the four weeks ended February 16 after a 1.4% y/y drop in the previous period.
Gasoline inventories increased 2.9% y/y in the week of February 16 following a 2.2% y/y increase in the prior week. Inventories of residual fuel oil fell 3.9% y/y in the week of February 16 after declining 10.1% y/y in the previous week. Crude oil inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, decreased 5.7% y/y in the week of February 16 following a 5.3% y/y decline one week earlier.
Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories were 29.7 days in the week of February 16 versus 30.3 days in the prior week. The recent low was 23.4 days in the week of June 30, 2023. Crude oil inventories were 30.1 days of supply in the week of February 16, up from 29.5 days in the prior week. These compare to a recent high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023 and a recent low of 25.0 days in the week of September 1, 2023.
These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s WEEKLY & USENERGY database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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