U.S. ADP Employment Increase Slows in August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Private payroll job increase is half July’s gain.
- Goods-producing employment slows as factory hiring falls; service-sector jobs also moderate.
- Job-stayer wage growth eases.
The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 54,000 (1.1% y/y) during August after increasing 106,000 in July, revised from 104,000 and declining an unrevised 23,000 in June. The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 75,000 increase in August.
Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) increased 12,000 (0.4% y/y) in August after an 8,000 July rise, revised from 12,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) rose 25,000 (1.1% y/y) in August after increasing 53,000 in July, revised from 46,000. Large business hiring (500+ employees) gained 18,000 (2.4% y/y) following a 47,000 July increase, revised from 46,000.
Goods-producing employment rose 13,000 (1.3% y/y) after increasing 32,000 in July. Construction jobs increased 16,000 (2.4% y/y) following a 13,000 gain in July. Manufacturing jobs declined 7,000 (+0.1% y/y), after two months of moderate increase. Natural resources and mining jobs increased 4,000 (4.1% y/y) in August after rising 11,000 in July.
Service-producing jobs increased 42,000 (1.0% y/y) after a 74,000 July gain. Changes amongst industry sectors were mixed. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 50,000 (3.5% y/y) after increasing 45,000 in July. Professional & business jobs improved 15,000 (0.5% y/y) following a 9,000 increase. Information sector employment rose 7,000 (1.1% y/y) after increasing 9,000. Working lower, trade, transportation & utilities employment fell 17,000 (+0.3% y/y) after rising 20,000 in July. Education & health services posted a 12,000 decline (+0.2% y/y) after falling 40,000 in July. This was the sixth decline in seven months. Financial activities employment slid 2,000 (+1.9% y/y) after a 28,000 strengthening.
By region, in the Northeast the number of jobs rose 15,000 (1.2% y/y) in August following four consecutive monthly declines. Jobs rose 14,000 (1.3% y/y) in the Midwest after increasing 12,000 in July. In the West, jobs rose 8,000 (0.8% y/y) following a 67,000 increase, and in the South, employment rose 4,000 (0.8% y/y) following a 40,000 July strengthening.
Wage growth for job-stayers continued to moderate in August as year/year growth of median annual pay weakened to 4.4% from 4.5% in July, the slowest pace since June 2021. The slowdown in wage growth for job-stayers was widespread across major industries. Wage growth for job-changers was steady at 7.1% y/y, but down from a high of 16.1% in April 2022.
The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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